Most Lopsided MVP Races Ever
Editor’s Note — This article was originally published in August 2021 and does not reflect the 2022 MVP results.
The debate surrounding the most lopsided MVP race ever is subject to the same problems detailed in the earlier entry regarding the closest MVP races ever, specifically in regard to inconsistent voting format structures and voter totals¹. Due to much of the same logic detailed in the last article, I feel that the award share metric is again our best option for reasonably adjusting for these variables. However, there is one other confounding factor worth mentioning — The impact of the runner-up’s award share. As we’ll see, while it helps to have a dominant campaign and collect all or a large majority of first-place votes, uncertainty regarding second place is also an important factor in this ranking.
Let’s review an example. LeBron James won the 2013 MVP over Kevin Durant by accruing all but one first-place vote. However, that race does not make the top ten below, whereas LeBron’s 2010 MVP win over Kevin Durant in which LeBron earned a smaller majority of first-place votes than 2013 does make the list. This counterintuitive conundrum is a result of the number of second-place votes Durant received in each of those races. In 2010, there was broad uncertainty regarding the runner-up, so Durant, Kobe Bryant, and Dwight Howard split the second-place votes, resulting in an award share of 0.495 for Durant. Conversely, despite LeBron earning nearly every first-place vote in 2013, Durant was widely hailed as the league’s second-best player by that point and earned nearly every second-place vote, resulting in an award share of 0.632. As a result, even though LeBron had more first-place votes and a greater award share in 2010 than 2013, Durant’s dominance of the second-place vote resulted in a smaller difference between his and LeBron’s award share than in 2010.
Personally, I don’t consider this to be an issue but I do think it is reasonable for people to feel that it’s problematic, so it deserves a mention. I feel that the gap between the best and second-best player is an important factor when reviewing an MVP race’s lopsidedness. Even though LeBron had a smaller majority of first-place votes in 2010, the gap between him and the second-best player in the league was wider than it was in 2013. By the time 2013 rolled around, LeBron was still the best player in the league, but the gap between him and second-best was narrower due to Durant’s growth over the ensuing three years. As a result, even though LeBron was near unanimous in 2013, it still feels fitting to me that the 2010 race is a more reflective season of LeBron’s dominance of the league.
All in all, despite its limitations, award share is still a better option than our alternatives of measuring by first-place votes or total points, as both of those measurements are severely impacted by the number of voters in a given year. For example, if a player has a unanimous victory in a vote conducted with 25 voters then the maximum gap between first and second when measured by first-place votes is 25, whereas a player who wins a vote conducted with 100 voters by collecting 70 first-place votes to the runner-up’s 30 first-place votes will measure out with a 40-vote gap over second. As a result, even though the player with 25 first-place votes was more dominant, they wouldn’t be recognized as such through these measurements due to the player with 70 first-place votes playing in an era where more voters participated. This tilts bias towards modern races as more and more people join the voter pool. The total points metric is similarly impacted by this.
Geez, sorry for the long intro! All of that was a long way of saying that the following list will use award share, despite its limitations, to measure the most lopsided MVP races in history. Similar to the last article, we’ll follow-up with a briefer breakdown of the top tens based on first-place votes and total points too. Just like last time, we’re limiting this breakdown to the top-two finishers only.
Top Ten Most Lopsided MVP Races Based on Difference in Award Share
- 1971 — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (0.895 award share) over Jerry West (0.213 award share) With 1971 topping this list, Kareem can lay claim to having won both the closest and the most lopsided MVP races in history when viewed by award share. In just his second season, Kareem’s Bucks won 66 games and the NBA title in 1971. Kareem led the way by averaging 31/16/3 on superb true shooting and he posted an astounding 22.3 win shares. This is the fifth highest single season total of any player ever. Kareem was clearly the best player in the league, but it was far from unanimous. Kareem collected 133 first-place votes, yet seven others also collected at least one, including two for West in second-place, six for Dave Bing in third, five apiece for Willis Reed and Oscar Robertson in fourth and fifth, and one each for John Havlicek, Gus Johnson, and Billy Cunningham. This free-for-all was even more pronounced in the second-place votes. As a result, West narrowly slipped in to second place with a low award share, resulting in a gulf between the award share of first and second place. Kareem actually posted even better numbers the following season, including an all-time single season best mark of 25.7 win shares, yet he had a narrower MVP victory over, once again, Jerry West. Despite Kareem’s improved performance, West was also able to chip away at Kareem’s first-place votes and accrued a larger award share as a result. This was due to West’s 1972 Lakers being one of the greatest teams of all-time, winning 69 games and narrowly edging out the 68 wins of the 1967 Philadelphia 76ers for the new record of most wins in a season. Mr. Clutch was the team’s talisman through this run and closed the MVP gap in 1972 as a result.
- 2000 — Shaquille O’Neal (0.998) over Kevin Garnett (0.337) The 2000 MVP race finishing second to 1971 in this measurement highlights the odd quirk of runner-up importance in measuring by award share. Shaq’s win in 2000 was close to unanimous and he had a near-perfect award share as a result, whereas Kareem was far from unanimous and had a significantly lower award share in 1971, yet Kareem’s 1971 win still edges out Shaq’s 2000 win in this measurement due to the mass uncertainty surrounding second-place in 1971. Regardless, 2000 was arguably peak Shaq. His key stats in both traditional and advanced categories were either the best or second best of any season in his career, with his 18.6 win shares, 29.7 points per game, and defensive rating of 95 points per possession standing out from the bunch. Most importantly, the Lakers won 67 games and, eventually, the title. Shaq’s MVP victory was never in doubt, though Garnett, Alonzo Mourning, Karl Malone, and Tim Duncan all posted strong numbers and derailed any agreement regarding the league’s second-best player that year. As a result, Shaq walked away with one of the most dominant MVP wins ever.
- 1985 — Larry Bird (0.978) over Magic Johnson (0.338) Shockingly, despite their intertwined legacies, this is the only time that Bird and Magic finished top two together in MVP voting. Both players had stellar stats and comparable team success, though Bird’s advanced numbers were superior. It’s likely that the presence of a resurgent 37-year-old Kareem, who finished fourth in MVP voting, blocked Magic from gathering a larger award share. Similarly, Moses Malone, Terry Cummings, and rookie Michael Jordan gathered large chunks of the final share, resulting in Bird’s dominant victory.
- 1977 — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (0.644) over Bill Walton (0.117) The 1977 race is muddled a bit by the fact that this was one of the rare instances where only first-place votes were collected. As a result, despite collecting 29 first-place votes, which is significantly more than many other historical runners-up, Walton’s 0.117 award share is the lowest ever among players to finish second in MVP voting. Regardless, Kareem was a strong winner and collected a massive 159 first-place votes. Although Kareem would continue to post incredible numbers throughout the rest of his career, 1977 was the last instance where he had mind-boggling, other-worldly totals. He averaged 26 points and 13 rebounds, which, despite the fact that these would be career highs for many players, were actually career lows for Kareem at that point. Prime Kareem was something spectacular.
- 1980 — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (0.665) over Julius Erving (0.143) Much like the 1977 race, the 1980 MVP ballot only collected first-place votes and the final results are similarly deceptive. Like Walton in 1977, Erving’s 0.143 win share is one of the lowest ever for a runner-up despite the fact that he actually had more first-place votes than most other historical runners-up. Erving collected 31.5² first-place votes and had yet another splendid season with the Sixers, but Kareem was once again the league’s best and earned the final of his five MVP victories. Yet again, Kareem ranked near the top of the scoring and rebounding charts and was best or second-best to Erving in nearly all advanced categories. He also earned his eighth selection to the All-Defense Team. To top things off, Kareem also won the NBA Finals showdown with Erving that year³.
- 2016 — Stephen Curry (1.000) over Kawhi Leonard (0.484) The fight for second place in 2016 was a bloodbath. Kawhi ultimately finished second, albeit very narrowly, as LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, and Russell Westbrook all also had strong cases. Each player had stellar advanced stats, strong counting stats, and team success. The margins separating these players must have been razor thin. Ultimately, I think Kawhi finishing second was probably the right outcome due to his 67 wins and DPOY caliber defense, but I could be easily swayed toward any of the other options. This makes Steph’s unanimous victory all the more impressive. The league was littered with contenders in their primes and the voters still surveyed the landscape and, without an iota of dissent, agreed that Steph was the cream of the crop. Steph tallied trailblazing totals and redefined the style of the game in the process. Top that off with a record-breaking 73 wins and it’s no wonder that he walked away with the trophy with zero opposition. Still, the other five contenders deserve some recognition in their own rights.
- 1967 — Wilt Chamberlain (0.822) over Nate Thurmond (0.315) I’m shocked that Wilt didn’t have a more dominant victory this year. The 1967 76ers set a new league record of 68 wins and Wilt was clearly the catalyst, averaging 24/24/8 to go along with 21.9 win shares. More incredibly, his scoring and rebounding rates were some of the lowest of his career, as he had famously accepted a diminished scoring role in order to serve as the fulcrum of new coach Alex Hannum’s pass-first offense, resulting in some of the best assist rates of any center ever to that point⁴. In most seasons, a team with an all-time great record led by a star player with dominant statistics would result in a dominant MVP win. Yet Wilt earned an award share of just 0.822. Perhaps this was due to his star-studded cast of Hal Greer, Luke Jackson, Chet Walker, and a young Billy Cunningham, but many of the other great teams that year had similarly stacked rosters. It also isn’t a result of voter fatigue, as Bill Russell and Oscar Robertson had won five of the previous six awards. All in all, I’m at a loss as to why Wilt didn’t have a bigger win.
- 2010 — LeBron James (0.980) over Kevin Durant (0.495) The discussion regarding who was the second best player in the league in 2010 was wide open. This was Durant’s breakout season and his numbers were eye-popping, but cases could still be made for any of the third through fifth MVP finishers, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, and Dwyane Wade, as the league’s second best. As a result, there was much less clarity surrounding the MVP runner-up and LeBron’s stranglehold on the top spot resulted in a large enough gap to sneak into the top ten. And what about LeBron’s numbers? Just a 29/7/8 to go along with absurdly strong advanced numbers, First Team All-Defense, solid shooting splits, and 61 wins. It’s incredible in retrospect how prime LeBron made these numbers feel ho-hum at the time.
- 1996 — Michael Jordan (0.986) over David Robinson (0.508) Considering how there seemed to be universal regard in the 90s that Michael Jordan was the undisputed best player on the planet, it is surprising to see that this is the only truly lopsided MVP win of his career. In fact, of his five MVP wins, this is by far the largest award share that he achieved, though it is the fifth highest award share of any winner ever⁵. Regardless, this was Jordan’s triumphant return to the NBA following his infamous hiatus⁶ and it makes sense that some of the feel-good factor entwined with his reemergence buoyed his candidacy. That being said, Jordan was awesome this year. It’s tough to find a hole in his game and, to top things off, this was the Bulls’ famous 72 win season. In retrospect, it’s surprising this wasn’t a unanimous victory, though he missed out on four first-place votes: two to Penny Hardaway, one to Hakeem Olajuwon, and one to Karl Malone. All four had terrific seasons of their own, but David Robinson’s runner-up finish was MVP-worthy in its own right, making Jordan’s dominant victory feel even more impressive.
- 1983 — Moses Malone (0.960) over Larry Bird (0.485) 1983 marked the last of Moses’ three career MVP wins, as well as the last of Bird’s three consecutive runner-up finishes. It also marked the second consecutive year that Moses and Bird finished one and two in MVP voting. Of Bird’s three consecutive runner-up finishes, this was likely his best season. However, Moses’ MVP case was simply too obvious to ignore this year. Moses’ move to Philadelphia this season reinvigorated a team that ultimately went on to win the title in historic fashion. Moses continued his usual yeoman’s work cleaning the glass and posted some of the best all-around stats of his career. This, along with the heavy competition to Bird for second place from the likes of Julius Erving, Magic Johnson, and Sidney Moncrief, gave Moses a fairly dominant MVP win.
A few items of interest jump out from this list. First, Kareem’s trio of top-five entries feels impressive. Second, the stats these winners posted are incredible. The combined average stat line of these players would be 27/12/5 with 18.3 win shares and 65 wins. Third, I was surprised to find relative balance across eras, as we find two races from the 10s, one from the 00s, one from the 90s, three from the 80s, two from the 70s, and one from the 60s. Additionally, the 1959 race of Bob Pettit over Bill Russell narrowly missed out in thirteenth place. I was expecting to see a lot more races from the 00s and 10s. Lastly, I’m not sure how I feel about the first-place-vote-only races of 1977 and 1980 cracking the top five given how many first-place votes Bill Walton and Julius Erving collected as runners-up in those years. For the fun of it, if we were to exclude seasons in which only first-place votes were collected, then the 1986 race of Larry Bird (0.981) over Dominique Wilkins (0.459) and 2011 race of Derrick Rose (0.977) over Dwight Howard (0.531) would slide in at the bottom in place of 1977 and 1980, with the aforementioned 1959 race moving up to eleventh.
Top Ten Most Lopsided MVP Races Based on Total Points Won
- 2000 — Shaquille O’Neal (1,207 total points won) over Kevin Garnett (408 total points won)
- 2016 — Stephen Curry (1,310) over Kawhi Leonard (634)
- 2010 — LeBron James (1,205) over Kevin Durant (609)
- 1996 — Michael Jordan (1,114) over David Robinson (574)
- 2011 — Derrick Rose (1,182) over Dwight Howard (643)
- 1971 — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (698) over Jerry West (166)
- 2004 — Kevin Garnett (1,219) over Tim Duncan (716)
- 1985 — Larry Bird (763) over Magic Johnson (264)
- 2009 — LeBron James (1,172) over Kobe Bryant (698)
- 2013 — LeBron James (1,207) over Kevin Durant (765)
As noted in the intro, the total points measurement tilts the results towards the post-1979 MVP races, with only Kareem’s 1971 win sneaking back into the top ten on this list. The 2011, 2004, 2009, and 2013 races are all new entries. I was shocked to find the 2011 race appear here! I recalled this race being a much closer affair between Rose, Dwight, and LeBron, though I was clearly mistaken. LeBron’s wins in 2009 and 2013 sneaking in at the bottom give him three appearances in this top ten, reflecting just how highly regarded and dominant he was in the late 00s and early 10s.
Top Ten Most Lopsided MVP Races Based on First-Place Votes
- 2016 — Stephen Curry (131 first-place votes) over Kawhi Leonard (0 first-place votes)
- 1977 — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (159) over Bill Walton (29)
- 1971 — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (133) over Jerry West (4)
- (Tie) 2013 — LeBron James (120) over Kevin Durant (0)
- (Tie) 2004 — Kevin Garnett (120) over Tim Duncan (0)
- (Tie) 2000 — Shaquille O’Neal (120) over Kevin Garnett (0)
- 1980 — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (147) over Julius Erving (31.5)
- 2014 — Kevin Durant (119) over LeBron James (6)
- 2010 — LeBron James (116) over Kevin Durant (4)
- 2011 — Derrick Rose (113) over Dwight Howard (3)
Five of the ten races in this list had players who finished third or lower that accrued more first-place votes than the runner-up⁷. This skews the results, as the measuring between first and second isn’t totally accurate in these years. Regardless, we don’t see any new entrants pop up in this list. However, this does emphasize just how large the gap was between Kareem and the runners-up in his 1977 and 1980 wins which only collected first-place votes. Despite the respectable number of first-place votes collected by Walton and Dr. J in those years, this list illustrates that Kareem was still truly ascendant in those years.
To close, just like the last article, I’ll attempt to collate the above info to give my unnecessary opinion on the most lopsided MVP races ever. In my eyes, the top two are fairly clear, though the order can be debated. I ultimately settled on Shaq’s win in 2000 as the most lopsided ever due to Shaq’s near unanimous victory and the general chaos revolving around the runner-up spot. Steph Curry’s 2016 win takes second due to the fact that Kawhi’s case as runner-up that year was stronger than Garnett’s in 2000. I think 1971 is a strong case for third place, in part due to Kareem’s unyielding supremacy, but mostly due to the total mess surrounding second-place. LeBron’s win in 2010 was also a simple choice for me in fourth, as it measures well in every metric. However, fifth through tenth place was extremely difficult to parse. I think any of 1977, 1980, 1985, 1986⁸, 1996, 2004, 2011, 2013, or 2014 can slot in anywhere in this spectrum. Prior to seeing the top ten based on first-place votes, I don’t think I would’ve considered 1977 or 1980 here, but that evidence swayed me. Similarly, I never would’ve guessed that 2011 would be in consideration here prior to compiling this data. Ultimately, I think I’ll go with 1985, 1977, 1996, 1986, 2004, and 1980 for the remaining spots, though I can be easily swayed in other directions.
Well, that was a lot tougher than I expected it to be! I thought measuring lopsided races would be far simpler than close races, but that was not the case. Regardless, I hope all this data and interpretation provide a new perspective on the world of runaway MVP victories. I think the main winners from this article are Kareem and LeBron, as they’re the only players with multiple dominant MVP wins. Just like last time, there won’t ever be a definitive answer to this question and I hope we can enjoy debating it for a long time to come. Moving forward, we’ll continue the series on MVP reviews with a few quirkier takes on the award. See you then!
¹ Voting format inconsistencies are particularly disruptive. All MVP races prior to 1980 either collected votes for first through third place or just first-place whereas MVP races from 1980 onward collected votes for first through fifth place. These differing formats have significant impacts on the amount of award share a player can collect. This wasn’t significantly problematic when measuring narrow MVP wins across eras, but it becomes more pronounced when reviewing lopsided MVP wins across eras.
² Sigh, who splits their vote in the MVP race? For those curious, Gus Williams received the other 0.5 of that Erving vote.
³ Though rookie Magic Johnson won the Finals MVP.
⁴ I’ve always felt that this story line is a bit reductive, as I’m sure there was more to it than just Hannum telling Wilt that he had to pass the ball more. Reductions like these can be dangerous to legacies and this season is a good example. Despite winning a title and serving as the culmination of years of effort and desire, many Wilt critics counterintuitively cling to the 1967 season as an example that tarnishes his legacy. In essence, the argument purports that Wilt always had the capacity to win whenever he simply chose to play the right way and, despite this, he instead chose to pursue personal stats and lost as a result. This drives me crazy, as it is not only unfair to Wilt, but it also unfairly diminishes the accomplishments of players like Bill Russell and anyone else who succeeded against Wilt. And yet, despite this, there’s something so enamoring about the concept of Wilt discovering the amorphous concept of team basketball and briefly achieving hoops nirvana. So, albeit reductive and potentially demeaning, this viewpoint is almost too romantic to resist.
⁵ The highest award share totals among winners ever are: 1. 2016 Steph Curry (1.000), 2t. 2013 LeBron James (0.998), 2t. 2000 Shaquille O’Neal (0.998), 4. 2004 Kevin Garnett (0.991), 5t. 1996 Michael Jordan (0.986), 5t. 2014 Kevin Durant (0.986), 7. 1986 Larry Bird (0.981), 8. 2010 LeBron James (0.980), 9. 1985 Larry Bird (0.978), 10. 2011 Derrick Rose (0.977).
⁶ I’ll take the approach that most NBA media seem to employ and pretend that his actual return in 1995 doesn’t’ count.
⁷ 1971 (as detailed in the above entry on that race); 2013, in which third-place Carmelo Anthony captured the only vote not to be given to LeBron; 2004, in which third-place Jermaine O’Neal’s two first-place votes and fourth-place Peja Stojakovic’s one outpaced runner-up Duncan’s zero; 2000, in which seventh-place Allen Iverson captured the only first-place vote not to go to Shaq; and 2011, in which third-place LeBron’s four first-place votes were superior to runner-up Dwight’s three.
⁸ 1986 just missed out on the award share top ten and didn’t make the other two due to having a low voter total. I still considered it here due to Bird’s dominance of the first-place votes that year.