Systems Theory of Change
Importance of developing Theory of Change by using Participatory Systems Thinking based on our experiences of applying it to social purpose organizations.
Theory of Change (TOC) is an approach to understanding how activities create long-term impact and what are its potential pathways — from multiple activities to impact. The idea makes substantial value addition to the conventional logic model (log frame) which tends to compartmentalize activities and their impact pathways in silos.
TOC helps organizations think more laterally and allows them to consider the multiple ways impact could happen through a mix of activities.
Two Impediments
There are two challenges that need to be overcome to make any TOC systemically robust and visually comprehensible to all. These are, 1) Capturing feedback dynamics between cause & effect i.e., activities, their outcomes, and their resultant feedback on amplification or dampening of activities & 2) Estimating the dynamic (nonlinear) impact that these feedback loops would create in the short term and long term.
By overcoming the above two challenges one could create a more robust and plausible understanding of how program activities could create or fall short of creating the desired impact. These then also help in testing the underlying (often untested) assumptions. Systems thinking and its tools provide a way of overcoming these two challenges to a great extent. See the below example.
Illustrative Theory of Change
The above diagram shows impact pathways from fodder production & water harvesting activity leading to income generation. This is a logical model which shows how two activities combined will create income gains through an increase in livestock population — either through dairy or by increased selling of the livestock (eg. small ruminants).
Systems Theory of Change
In the above diagram, the same interventions & their impact are shown through a higher-order causal loop diagram which highlights three feedback loops.
Loop R1: This shows that if income from livestock increases it would allow farmers to invest in more livestock and thereby increase its population. This can lead to more income. Typically, this is the loop that would attract the imagination of all stakeholders. However, there are other two loops that can restrict this growth in the long term.
Loop B1 & B2: As the population would continue to grow it would lead to a reduction in fodder availability and water availability, since the consumption of both would also increase, ultimately restricting the growth of the population. Thus, while we expect long-term growth this intervention may produce a short-term growth followed by a long-term plateau, equilibrium, in the livestock population.
Hence, the expected future outcomes for both diagrams would be fundamentally different.
In both the figures, there is a growth in the population of livestock due to an increase in fodder production and water harvesting. But in figure 4 this growth is constrained because of the increase in fodder & water consumption which erodes the availability of both resources, ultimately restricting the growth in livestock numbers. This is the key difference between a theory of change and the systems theory of change (as shown in the causal loop diagram).
A systems theory of change allows you to capture the feedback dynamics, account for time delays, and thereby differentiate short-term and long-term impacts. All of this propagates robust testing of underlying assumptions and improved learning amongst the stakeholders. It also helps in communicating the right messages, moderating expectations, and bringing realism into aspirational conversations.
An important advantage of applying systems thinking to TOC is that it gives you the option of doing it with people through participatory processes. The knowledge about activities and their short-term and long-term impacts lies with the people who are part of the system either as implementers and/or end-users (beneficiaries).
A systems theory of change is incomplete if it does not lead to a shift in the perspectives of people. A shift from linear to feedback thinking, considering time delays between activities and impact, estimating future impact trajectories, and realizing that all models have assumptions that need to be tested. Thus, a systems theory of change is best developed in a participatory manner with the people who are part of the system, as implementers and/or stakeholders. Simply applying the tools of systems thinking to develop a TOC is not enough. The process of developing systems TOC must lead to team learning and the participants coming to terms with their own assumptions and that of others. The process offers as much leverage as the end model in creating a perspective shift for the team and the organization at large.
At DESTA we are trying to apply systems thinking to work with Organizations to improve their TOC through a participatory process. Hopefully, this would improve their team learning and bring about intended changes in the real world.
By Mihir Mathur.
References:
- Anderson, A. (2005). The community builder’s approach to theory of change: A practical guide to theory development. Retrieved from Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change website: http://www.theoryofchange.org/pdf/TOC_fac_guide.pdf.
- Reinholz, D.L., Andrews, T.C. Change theory and theory of change: what’s the difference anyway?. IJ STEM Ed 7, 2 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40594-020-0202-3.
- Senge, Peter M. The Fifth Discipline : the Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. New York :Doubleday/Currency, 1990.
- Maira, Arun. Transforming Systems: Why the World Needs a New Ethical Toolkit. ISBN: 978–93–5333–574–8. Rupa Publications, 2019.
