The top 5 NFL, NBA, and NHL draft picks each year are almost guaranteed to play in their respective leagues in the season immediately after their draft. The #1 overall pick is often a future All-Star, especially in hockey, where you’re much more likely to draft a Crosby, Kane, or Stamkos than an Alexandre Daigle. But baseball? Nothing is a bigger crapshoot.
Sometimes you get Alex Rodriguez, sometimes you get Brien Taylor. Dansby Swanson has already been traded. Brady Aiken hasn’t thrown a pitch since being drafted. Mark Appel has a 5.04 ERA in 322 minor league innings. BUT…then you have Carlos Correa, Gerrit Cole, Bryce Harper, and Stephen Strasburg, all of whom have dramatically impacted their teams. This tells me that baseball still has a major talent evaluation problem.