DPC 2022 Winter Tour: Midseason update

Dota Diesel
10 min readJan 2, 2022

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Happy 2022! A new year may be upon us, but there’s still the tail end of a tour to finish up for this leg of the DPC (and even better, an entire region still yet to play!). Let’s take a look back on the preseason projections for each region, the remaining schedule, and see what the Diesel Engine’s simulator thinks each team’s chances for Major qualification, relegation to Division II, and getting stuck in the middle are.

Western Europe

Turns out: OG is good

What a homecoming this season has been for Matumbaman. He, and the rest of Team Liquid, have popped off to an incredible 5–0 start and have virtually guaranteed a spot at the first Major of the year (~98%). Liquid has had the honor of giving the sole loss to the 3–1 OG, whose total rebuild was nothing but question marks and unproven talent. They have more than proved their place among Western Europe’s elite, in both here and their upper-half performance in the most recent Dota Pit tournament. Fellow breakout success Team Tickles also looks poised to book a Major trip after coming up from Division II just last season when they were known as Vikin.gg.

Tundra Esports, while showing middling results in league play, did beat TI10 champions Team Spirit at Dota Pit last month to take up a 1st place finish, beating a slate of contemporaries along the way in their lower bracket run. Team Tickles and OG still pose a threat to a winning record, and subsequently a Major slot, but still are projected to have pretty good odds of attendance. Among the teams dispatched by Tundra at Dota Pit was Team Secret, who got pantsed by OG to kick off their season and have more or less flopped to a losing 2–3 record. With a matchup with Team Tickles also left to play, it’s entirely possible Secret misses this Major, but without another tragic upset they should remain is Division I.

The team that sent Secret into this compromising position, Nigma Galaxy, has problems of their own (even with Miracle back in action). At 1–3,and a series against Liquid left to play their Major hopes are fast dwindling, and yet are still better than their chances of relegation. This is mostly due to the rebuild of previous division winner Alliance looking like a pretty big bust. Similarly at 1–3, they still have Liquid, OG, and Nigma to take on (and COOLGUYS, but everyone’s been beating COOLGUYS) which bodes poorly for their chances of remaining in Division I.

Win projections (preseason difference):

1. Team Liquid: 6.36 wins (+2.67)
2. Tundra Esports: 4.39 wins (-0.62)
3. Team Tickles: 4.28 wins (+1.08)
4. OG: 4.23 wins (+1.97)
5. Team Secret: 3.41 wins (-1.33)
6. Nigma Galaxy: 2.76 wins (-1.23)
7. Alliance: 2.06 wins (-1.45)
8. COOLGUYS: 0.52 wins (-1.06)

Eastern Europe

From D2 to the Major? Looks like it for HellRaisers.

In the least surprising result of the year, Team Spirit still looks the elite team that won The International last October. At 3–0 with a spotless map score, their shadow looms large over an otherwise contentious region.

In the most surprising result, PuckChamp looks like they may be ready to join Spirit at the first Major, whose only loss so far has only been to Spirit. They had spent the previous tour in an entirely average position and given their relatively unremarkable roster, their preseason outlook pegged them to be in a tight three-way race to survive relegation with Team Unique and ASM Gambit. That situation still remains largely true, except with Team Empire in the place of PuckChamp (even with the high profile addition of Iceberg to their roster). It’s not a pretty scene, with Gambit being the only team of the three to have a better-than-a-coin-flip (projected) chance to remain in Division I.

Above even PuckChamp, however, HellRaisers makes an even stronger play for a Major slot. Sure, two of the three series wins have been against the aforementioned trio of lackluster teams, but a close 2–1 victory over Virtus.pro puts a significant threat behind them. VP’s additional loss to PuckChamp put them in a tier of disappointment with another team across the Atlantic that will be discussed later, but for now it is safe to say that their fodder matches are nearing an end. A coming challenge to both HR and VP’s Major prospects is Natus Vincere, who sits at 2–1 and could potentially put VP’s hopes to bed with a surprise upset. They have four tough games ahead of them, and with a loss to PuckChamp already working against them their outlook is similarly marginal for claiming a spot from PuckChamp or HellRaisers.

Win Projections (preseason difference):

1. Team Spirit: 6.26 wins (+0.26)
2. HellRaisers: 5.39 wins (+1.54)
3. PuckChamp: 5.00 wins (+2.72)
4. Virtus.pro: 3.61 wins (-0.98)
5. Natus Vincere: 3.50 wins (-0.21)
6. ASM Gambit: 1.97 wins (-0.29)
7. Team Unique: 1.28 wins (-1.18)
8. Team Empire: 0.99 wins (-1.86)

Southeast Asia

Guess which one beat a bunch of elite Chinese teams last week

Of all five active regions, Southeast Asia was looking the most rote prior to the New Year’s break. There were very few upsets (according to our power ranking) and clear cut tiers of play were established. Hell, only one of the fifteen series in the first three weeks even went to three games. SEA had the shortest write ups in the weekly power rank articles, very little by ways of storyline, and was just generally pretty by the numbers.

At midseason, our projections say pretty much the same. Regional favorites T1 and Boom Esports both have an over 90% chance of claiming two of the three spots for the Major and the new TnC Predator seems destined for relegation by a comparable probability.

Here’s where things get interesting. Three of these SEA teams were invited to an online tournament featuring some pretty formidable Chinese teams, and one of them actually went on to win the whole thing. TnC got eliminated in groups after losing a tiebreaker with iG.Vitality and Team Aster, which isn’t too shocking. Team SMG, the frontrunner for SEA’s third Major slot, had a pretty lousy group stage, placed in the lower bracket, and got eliminated by Vici Gaming. SMG had a 2–2 record in the DPC going into the Huya Winter Invitational, but with both of those losses coming from T1 and Boom, they still theoretically have a good shot at winning out.

Then comes in the humble OB Neon, sporting an 0–3 DPC record, a second to last place in our power ranking two weeks running, and very little else going for them heading into this tournament. Not only to they place into the upper bracket through groups (given, by a single game), they proceed to knock down the ex-Elephant infused RNG in round one, knock down the highest ranking team at the whole tournament Invictus Gaming after that, and then beat RNG again to win the entire tournament.

Normally when a team plays like that, it would be safe to assume you would see them again sometime soon at a Major or something. But with Neon, it’s more likely that they live to fight again next tour in Division I as a best case scenario. They were fighting with (and lost a series to!) Execration, who currently sports a winning 2–1 record but has probably the hardest schedule in the region ahead of them. Picking up wins against TnC and Motivate.Trust Gaming would probably save Neon’s slot in the region, but a win against T1 looks like a stretch, even with their hot streak at Huya.

There’s also the question of Fnatic: also with a 2–2 record, also with a match against T1 down the road. Their other two series against Execration and Motivate.Trust, though, should be winnable. This puts them at 4–3 (again, assuming they lose to T1 and win out), and if Neon plays the spoiler in their match again SMG then a play-in scenario for the third slot could very well be in the future.

Win Projections (preseason difference):

1. Boom Esports: 6.07 wins (+1.55)
2. T1: 5.66 wins (+0.43)
3. Team SMG: 3.98 wins (-0.10)
4. Fnatic: 3.62 wins (-0.55)
5. Execration: 3.01wins (+0.57)
6. Motivate.Trust Gaming: 2.93 wins (+0.04)
7. OB Neon: 2.10 wins (-0.32)
8. TnC Predator: 0.63 wins (-1.65)

North America

The third place curse is BACK

For years in North America, the question has been: Evil Geniuses and who? Be it Team Liquid, compLexity, Na`Vi.US, Digital Chaos, Team NP, or J Storm, there’s always another competitive team in the region, but none that could realistically give much challenge to EG’s predestined NA qualifier spot.

But this is not the same EG that placed 9–12th at TI10. Bringing Jerax out of retirement and bringing Nightfall over from Eastern Europe to replace iceiceice and Fly was always going to be a big lift, and for most teams going 2–2 after 4 games is the definition of middling.

For the long time rulers of NA, EG’s 2–2 record is a disaster. These losses are not against Undying, who chose to stick together after a first round exit at TI and continue to excel against their regional challengers. They are not losses given by Quincy Crew, whose rebuild has proven itself as being worthy to compete at the top of their division.

EG’s first, and arguably most surprising, loss was to Black N Yellow. A matchup that was so one sided that, as I wrote about in the recap the week that it happened, both BnY wins placed inside the Diesel Engine’s top 100 upsets (in a database of over 56,000 games). BnY would follow up this performance in the following week by losing 2–1 to Arkosh Gaming, whose 1–3 record makes them similarly suited for a potential relegation back to Division II.

Arkosh’s rising Division II accomplices, Wildcard Gaming (formerly, D2 Hustlers), are the other team to have humbled Evil Geniuses. Like EG, they also sit at a 2–2 record, but unlike EG the worst is already behind them, having taken losses from both QC and Undying. Finishing with a 5–2 record isn’t to out of reach, with matches against BnY and Simply TOOBASED still to come. Unlike Arkosh and BnY, the TOOBASED squad has yet to produce any map wins at all and barring a late tour rally, seem destined for Division II.

And that leaves one final question mark in the division: 4 Zoomers. At 2–2 with EG and Wildcard, they have a pretty easy final three games (sans EG, theoretically) and could very likely end up with a winning 4–3 record. Outside of an incredible collapse from either QC or Undying (not both, one of those will get their 5th win this week), it won’t land them a Major slot, but their chances of relegation should be pretty far off. Playing spoiler to EG with the rest of NA’s rising talent would the Zoomers’ biggest move this tour, and not one that should be discounted.

Win Projections (preseason difference):

1. Undying: 6.25 wins (+1.03)
2. Quincy Crew: 5.31 wins (+1.65)
3. Evil Geniuses: 3.80 wins (-1.86)
4. Wildcard Gaming: 3.74 wins (+1.25)
5. 4 Zoomers: 3.70 wins (-0.39)
6. Black N Yellow: 2.23 wins (+0.21)
7. Arkosh Gaming: 1.85 wins (-1.07*)
8. Simply TOOBASED: 1.13 wins (-0.80)

South America

If you haven’t kept up with these org changes, this might look a bit weird.

From disgraced TI10 South American qualifier shoe-ins to the preeminent force in their region, Thunder Predator is on the fast track to making it back to the Major. This is the old NoPing squad who placed first in the previous tour before, so their dominance should be seen as continued excellence rather than a surprise. Right behind them in comparable spotless fashion is beastcoast, who also has something to prove after their first round exit at TI10. With only two Major slots allotted to SA, the reigning duopoly of beastcoast and TP seems to be relatively safe.

The breakout story of the region lies just below the feckless upper crust in the storyline of the rising Division II BINOMISTAS squad, who a few sponsorships and mergers later now go by APU King of Kings. Their upset over Lava (the old Thunder Predator, who got eliminated in groups at TI10) makes them the only other team with a winning record in the region, and with a pretty sunny outlook for their final three games (beyond beastcoast) they could end up comfortably above the relegation line. Lava, on the other hand, will need to get back into form and win out if they want a winning record, but having already taken their licks from TP and beastcoast, their path to remaining in Division I is similarly optimistic.

Beyond these four, the division looks murkier. Infamous, a team that has hung out in the upper half of the power rankings, has had a lukewarm 2–2 start. It’s a salvageable record, even with beastcoast up ahead, but their loss to Hokori is doing their chances no favors. Hokori is another bystander in TP and beastcoast’s rampage through the region and, like Infamous, is in possession of the skill to potentially win out and salvage their tour.

This leaves NoPing Esports and SG Esports left to fend for their Division I lives. The former has an unimpressive 1–2 record, but a more respectable 3–4 map score. Still, NoPing hasn’t faced either TP or beastcoast yet, and depending on which level Lava is operating on when they square up, it could be a rough back half of the season. On the other hand, it’s tough to see a path forward for SG that doesn’t involve a stint in Division II, particularly after starting with a 1–8 map record.

Win Projection (preseason difference):

1. Thunder Predator: 6.22 wins (+1.23)
2. beastcoast: 5.72 wins (+1.11)
3. APU King of Kings: 3.97 wins (+1.77)
4. Infamous: 3.40 wins (-0.60)
5. Lava: 2.81 wins (-1.23)
6. Hokori: 2.65 wins (-0.64)
7. NoPing Esports: 2.34 wins (-0.07)
8. SG Esports: 0.90 wins (-1.55)

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Dota Diesel
Dota Diesel

Written by Dota Diesel

A Dota 2 esports insights project: combining big data and fan fervor to report on the DPC.

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