or the red state/blue state problem — I previously described how I handled inhomogeneous population with a variation on Alison Hill’s COVID-19 model. …

the effect of poorly-behaved neighbors — introduction Here I describe my model for treating interacting groups with Alison Hill’s SEIR model for COVID-19. It’s a bit heavy on details, so I’ve segregated the model description here, and will present some results in a following article. …

A popular, strictly phenomenological projection of the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States is from IMHE. This doesn’t use differential equations to model infections and recoveries, but rather fits curves to the data. The issue is they fit error functions to accumulated mortality and hospitalization data. Error…

This article uses two separate models. First, I use a simple SEIR model for attempting to model COVID-19. This is not well-calibrated and ends up over-predicting the basic reproduction number, but is used for some general insight. I call it an SEIRD model because I add deaths to recoveries, but…

At today’s press conference, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the CDC’s top medical advisor to President Trump, said it would be 8 to 9 weeks before the number of cases in the United States peaks out. Donald Trump stood by and nodded, clearly not understanding any of the implications of that statement. …

I’m not a physician. I’m not an epidemiologist. I’m not a virologist. I’m not even a biologist. But I do understand exponentials, and it often surprises me that many others fail to appreciate their consequences when applied to COVID-19. …

problems with our present primary system: voters as pundits Nate Silver has developed a model for the Democratic primary, and the model reveals what a mess the process is. “There’s positive feedback loops”, he said in the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. This indicates a fundamental problem with how we conduct our primaries. The issue is that each voter gets only…

The democrats are only impeaching Trump because of policy differences, proven by the fact some democrats have been calling for Trump’s impeachment since inauguration: Causality here is twisted. Hatred of Trump is because of his abuses of power, and these abuses of power extend back to the campaign, when he…

After the first four real days of the Trump impeachment trial, I though the House (all Democrats) had done an excellent job. It was a two pronged case: article 1: the President abused his power, article 2: the President obstructed Congress. It’s obstruction of Congress, not Justice, because Congress adjudicates…