Bueno de Mesquita and Smith explore the concept of political and corporate power. Their core assumption is that leaders are purely self-interested: they do whatever it takes to stay in power and any public benefits are a byproduct. The thesis is extremely cynical probably an oversimplification. However, it was thought provoking and provided an interesting predictive framework for thinking about leadership and power. (Reminded me of Peter Zeihan’s The Accidental Superpower — a compelling but simple framework — with a heavy dose of cynicism).
The authors propose that the power structure any entity (corporation or government) is defined by three core population groups:
1) The Nominal Selectorate (“The Interchangeables”) — the pool of all potential supporters
2) The Real Selectorate (“The Influentials”) — the supporters who actually choose the leader
3) The Winning Coalition (“The Essentials”) — the key people who keep the leader in power
Leaders remain in power by keeping The Winning Coalition happy. The relative sizes of each of the three groups above dictate how the leader governs.
In a group with a large Winning Coalition, like the United States, the Nominal Selectorate — everyone of voting age who is registered — and the Real Selectorate — the Electoral College — are closely mapped. In order to win the election and remain in office, the President of the United…
