As Poland tests EU patience it is Britain which will suffer

Daniel Gibson
Jul 20, 2017 · 4 min read

WITH the news that Poland may be stripped of its voting rights by the European Union the United Kingdom government may find that the already difficult Brexit negotiations get worse.

One of the reasons a number of those still supporting Leave have defended their decision is the down to how closely linked the EU is, and appears to be growing ever more so. It is this close relationship, coupled with the Polish issue, which could mean that where Britain may have been able to call on the slight, and waning, reserves of loyalty some member states had to it, it will no longer be able to. Britain is not negotiating with a single entity in the way which certain people seem to think. It is wrestling with the internal politics of 27 other sovereign nation states, each with their own agendas and self-interests, as well as the wider interests of the EU. Anything which causes any instability in the bloc at the moment is liable to drive those countries wanting to hold it together to ensure that the harsh lessons of what happens when you leave are made very clear. This is not, as many in the pro-Brexit camp keep claiming, a ‘punishment’ for leaving. It is just the reality of international negotiations; countries want to ensure that their best interests are maintained, if they see the EU remaining intact as being in those interests then that is what they will fight for.

The Polish ruling right wing Law and Justice Party has been at odds with the EU pretty much ever since it was elected. Its most recent move, to potentially place judges under full government control, will be seen by many in the bloc as yet another test from a belligerent member looking to flex its muscles, and one which they must quash quickly if their interests are to be maintained. Triggering the never used before Article 7, which strips a member of its voting rights, would be a strong, arguably too strong, way in which they can do this, and coincidentally show Britain that they are not averse to playing hardball if they feel that they are being pushed too far.

Again, those who have been able to ignore the drop in sterling, the rise in prices, the daily saga of mistakes and disorganisation from the government, the risks to the banking, agricultural, energy and manufacturing markets, among an ever increasing list of negative effects, will see this as proof that they were right to leave the EU. What they are missing is that as part of the bloc we would be doing exactly the same thing for the same reasons. We would support the move to demonstrate to Poland that there are repercussions for not following the rules because it would be in our interests to do so. Instead we are working against the bloc at a time when it is keen to show its strength. The EU’s dwindling patience with the petulance of Britain is almost at an end, they will push back if the government tries to claim they can get a better deal out of the club than in it, not out of pettiness but out of necessity. With Poland pushing them from another angle they are liable to act like a parent and snap at both children, no matter who started it.

With the rights of EU citizens in the UK and British Citizens in the EU, a hefty bill for pre-agreed payments, just think about telling your bank that you are selling your house and therefore won’t be paying off any more of the mortgage and see how far you get, financial passport, more than 700 various treaties and arrangements, 40 plus years of trade agreements, the single market and a multitude of other items still on the table now is not the time to act like we are in charge. We ceased holding any cards on June 23rd 2016 when we set fire to the deck and swept the ashes into the Channel in a display of self-deluded superiority. Of course there is always the “No Deal” option so favoured by some in the government, but let’s be brutally honest, does anyone really think that walking away from a trading bloc with which we sell so much will make Britain great again, no, it will cripple us and is already starting to. Poland is the tipping point, we now have to decide if we negotiate as adults and steady the boat, or keep rocking it from some misguided jingoistic nostalgia for the days of an empire long since crumbled and send the whole talks over the edge. Whatever the choice it will make little difference to the EU bloc, they will maintain their interests, 27 member nations can absorb the loss of Britain’s trade among them, EU business are already sourcing suppliers from outside the UK. In Britain’s own self-interest though it is time we took a step back from the edge and, if we are to plough on with this madness, to actually have an idea what we are doing.

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Daniel Gibson

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Marketing communications economist. Former foreign affairs correspondent.