A Tale of Two Squirrels: The Not So Simple Math on Venture Portfolio Size
Matt H. Lerner

This is a good and well-explained analysis. One concern I have with it (and Dave McCLure’s piece) is that you assume homogeneity of investment performance across portfolio size. What I mean is that I’d expect the first 50 selected companies in a portfolio to yield, on average, higher returns that the last 50. Depending on you assumptions about the heterogeneity, the conclusions you draw from this analysis could change.

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