Hmmm. One huge X-factor you omit is all those who do not consistently vote.
Chris Cook

But he didn’t get but 1% more of white people than Republicans did last time. He literally didn’t move the needle. He raised the number of minority voters Republicans got, but not white voters. Half of his voters were college educated, so they are way over-represented. The white working class voted huge for him, BUT not in numbers any different than those they voted since Reagan for Republicans.

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