2020s: Chaos (has no) Management in 5 Minutes

This article continues the series:
― 1900–1980s: Classical Management in 5 minutes,
― 1990–2010s: Agile Management in 5 minutes.

There is no one-size-fits-all approach in management because different situations require different methods. Sometimes — completely different. If a management environment is largely predictable (like production or processes), then the analysis and continuous improvement of Classical methods will be more applicable. Other environments might be complex, dynamic, and uncertain — making Agile methods of iterations and experiments a better fit. But there is yet another potential environment — Chaotic — and that is the focus of this article.

Chaos is Real

Chaos Theory, a branch of science that intersects mathematics and physics and deals with the unpredictable dynamics of systems.

The roots of Chaos Theory trace back to Henri Poincaré in 1889, during his attempts to solve the Three-Body Problem — essentially to determine if the Moon would ultimately fall to Earth or not. Poincaré’s approach, known as the method of small parameters, aimed to approximate the motion of the Sun, Earth, and Moon by making calculations in small, fixed increments to predict their future positions.

However, Poincaré eventually recognised that this method was flawed for such a situation. Even the slightest inaccuracies in the initial data could yield significantly different predictions — a phenomenon now known as ‘sensitivity to initial conditions.’

At its core, Chaos Theory asserts that certain systems fundamentally cannot be predicted. It’s not just a matter of insufficient data or inadequate computational power, the systems themselves inherently resist long-term prediction due to their sensitivity to initial conditions.

Weather is a prime example of such a Chaotic system. As a result, precise long-term weather forecasts remain elusive despite significant advances in meteorological technology and computational power. This inherent unpredictability is what makes Chaos Theory not just a mathematical curiosity, but a vital tool in our understanding of the world.

No, you Can’t Manage Chaos

Often, managers claim that dealing with “chaos” is part of their daily routine. While this may be true, the interpretation of “chaos” in this context differs from its scientific definition. In a professional setting, “chaos” typically refers to disorganisation or a lack of structure — a metaphorical mess.

Despite the apparent disorder, these environments are usually highly predictable. If there is a lack of organisation and structure, one can confidently predict that accomplishing tasks will be laborious, time-consuming, and the outcomes may be minimal. This prediction might not be motivating, but it’s reliable.

However, actual Chaos, as defined by Chaos Theory, is a different beast entirely. A situation that truly embodies Chaos is akin to captaining the largest cruise liner in the world, carrying 2000 passengers, that collides with an iceberg and begins to sink, knowing there are only enough lifeboats for 1000 souls. That is Chaos: no matter your expertise, training, or leadership skills, the outcome is fundamentally unpredictable and uncontrollable.

This distinction is crucial: “chaos” as a metaphor in business is distinct from “Chaos” as a scientific concept. Chaotic systems exist in reality, and they also exist in Management. Now, let’s discuss how to deal with them.

Avoid creating Chaotic Situations

Certainly, you don’t need advice against setting your office on fire. We humans are rational, and our instincts often drive us to maintain control and order. However, maintaining this control is not always a sure thing.

Imagine a situation where a CEO, without any apparent reason, without consulting with the leadership team, and even without notifying the responsible people in advance, makes a company-wide announcement like:

― “Working from the office is mandatory, starting next week.”

― “We’re spinning off our Hardware business to focus solely on Software.”

― “We’re adopting Holacracy. There will be no more job titles, nor managers.”

These abrupt, major changes can put an organisation into Chaos. The reaction might be unpredictable, ranging from excitement and impulsivity to fear and paralysis. Tensions could spike, productivity may dip, and talent might be lost.

Chaos doesn’t have to be company-wide; a random switch of a meeting agenda in the middle of a discussion could be another example. Although not as drastic, it can still disrupt the flow. Avoiding the creation of such Chaotic situations is fundamental to preserving a manageable work process.

When a Situation is Chaotic — Stabilise

Recall the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic — the world was in a state of Chaos. The worst outcomes suggested humanity could become extinct in a few months.

During this time, the emphasis wasn’t on optimisation or improvement, but rather on stabilisation. The immediate global response was a lockdown. Although this seemed a drastic measure, it was crucial to stabilise the situation and prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed with a vast number of patients.

It’s important to note that the lockdown wasn’t a solution in itself. The actual solution — the development and distribution of vaccines — came about a year later. However, the initial step of stabilising the situation was necessary in order to regain control and work on a viable long-term strategy.

In much the same way, our approach to managing Chaos should center on first stabilising the situation, then devising a plan of action.

When you can’t Stabilise Chaos ― Escape

There are circumstances when the factors causing chaos are external and beyond your ability to stabilise:

― Natural Disasters

― Political Instability (including Revolutions)

― Wars

― Technological Disruptions (digital cameras killed film photography)

In such scenarios, when Chaos is too entrenched or widespread to be effectively managed, your best course of action may be to escape. It could be a physical business relocation or a reorientation to another market or product. Don’t allow an unwinnable battle to drain your resources and energy. Remain alert to signs indicating that stabilisation is unfeasible, and be prepared to implement an exit strategy if necessary. Remember, every setback or failure can serve as a stepping stone for future success.

Controlled Chaos ― Innovations

Still, there’s one more facet of Chaos that can be potentially beneficial. Sometimes, a controlled dose of Chaos can prove to be eye-opening and stimulate innovation.

Hackathons are a prime example of controlled chaos in action. Indeed, it’s impossible to predict the ideas that will be born during these events, and that’s precisely the allure. The goal is to allow people to spend a day immersing themselves in creativity without constraints. While it’s true that most of these ideas might not be feasible, or perhaps even all of them, there’s always the possibility that something truly new and groundbreaking could emerge from this orchestrated chaos.

Sometimes, it’s crucial to create a space for a bit of controlled chaos. It doesn’t necessarily have to be a full-blown hackathon; it could be as simple as a 30-minute brainstorming session. The key is to tap into the creative potential that chaos can unleash while keeping potential risks within manageable boundaries.

Summary

Chaos is in essence unpredictable and potentially damaging. It exists in the real world and so, should be considered in management. Unlike mere disorganisation, it addresses volatile situations where actions might not correlate with outcomes. Understanding Chaos means acknowledging that:

― Chaos isn’t about traditional management, as actions can seem irrelevant to the outcomes.

― Avoiding the creation of Chaos should always be a priority.

― When Chaos occurs, all efforts should focus on stabilising the situation.

― If facing insurmountable challenges, consider escaping as a viable option.

― Controlled Chaos, on occasion, can lead to innovative breakthroughs.

This article concludes our journey through the diverse realms of management. We started with the Predictable domain and Classical methods, moved on to the Complex domains with Agile methods, and have now explored the Chaotic domain. Stay tuned for the next article, where we’ll interconnect these domains within an overview of the Cynefin Framework.