Week 13 NFL
Gambling advice for the upcoming NFL and college football games
Welcome to The Degenerate — Each week we’ll give you a few picks, insights, trends, and what to watch for. Full disclosure — neither of us claim to be experts. We’re just two guys who’ve spent many years betting like chumps, and now we are passionate about helping others to avoid being one.
NFL WEEK 14
Current Record: 61–43–1 YTD
Fade the trendy dog — Broncos @ Chiefs -9.5 Total 47.5
Nothing new here but Andy Reid is a mesmerizing 19–3 coming off a regular season BYE. He’s 7–1 with Mahomes leading the way (including playoffs). The Chiefs have struggled all year to get it together but going into last weeks BYE they were starting to click, riding a four game win streak. In a year where dogs are covering at an unprecedented (god I hate that word) rate, the Broncos have everything going for them in this spot. Divisional game, Sunday night, coming off a massive win over the Chargers. So why are they they are catching 9.5 points against the Chiefs; who have struggled to cover a spread since before we knew what COVID was? Everyone has rushed to get a piece of the Broncos ass with 64% of the bets coming in on ’em so far. If Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aren’t public, count your lucky stars and proceed with confidence.
The Pick: Chiefs -9.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Abandon ship — Eagles @ Jets +6.5 Total 45.5
I bet you had a tough time backing our bookies pick last week with the Jets, didn’t ya? Well get ready for round 2, because the gang green is ready to shake shit up. But this is pick isn’t so much about backing the Jets as it is fading the Eagles. This team plays with your emotions more than Smokey from Friday. Just when you think they might be legit and Hurts looks like the future, they go out and put up 7 points in a loss to the Giants (we nailed that one). I think there’s something here with timing the Eagles. They had 4 really good weeks going 3–1 with the only loss being by a field goal to the Chargers. Something to keep in mind is they’re one of the teams who hasn’t had a BYE yet. That comes after this game in week 14. They gotta be gassed. Take a look at a few of their box scores and you’ll see the Eagles offense relies heavily on running the ball. Hurts has only passed for over 200 yards once in the last 8 games. In a week of expected chalkiness, this is one of the few exceptions. The public is hammering Philly, yet they went from -7 to -6.5. I think the early smart money is on baby face Wilson, and we agree.
The Pick: Jets +6.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
A Thanksgiving hangover ripe for fading — Cardinals @ Bears +8 Total 45.5
No clue who’s playing QB for either team here, but it doesn’t matter. Kyler and Fields both might be back but the real spotlight is on Matt Nagy. Did you see him after the Bears win over the Lions? You would’ve thought he just won a playoff game. Rumors came out that the Bears were going to fire him regardless of the outcome, but then they were shot down. Matt definitely felt the pressure of coaching his last game, and in our opinion, he still stunk. He’s just a bad coach and he doesn’t seem like a very cool guy. Given his reaction to the win over Detroit, he’s gotta be feeling himself now thinking his job is secure for the rest of the season. And for that, we fade, and fade hard. It should be mentioned this is a public pick, but as we stated earlier, this feels like a public week. No better victim than Nagy with some false hope of job security.
The Pick: Cardinals -8
Who cares how you finish if you start fast — Colts @ Texans +9 Total 45.5
Hell of a fight by Carson and the Colts last week. No shame coming up just short against Brady. A few bonehead plays away from pulling out the W, but thats the price to pay when you let Wentz drop back and throw 40+ times. Now look, nearly everyone sees this coming — as of Wednesday night nearly 90% of the bets are on the Indy. We don’t want to get too cute and go Texans in this spot, but we also don’t want to get chalky and take the Colts to roll. What’s a Degenerate to do? Let’s look at the facts — Indy is winning this game, but with a BYE week on the horizon and a track record of letting inferior teams back into a game in the 4th quarter, the back door is going to be WIDE opened. Don’t over think it. Play this one down the fairway and cash your first ticket on Sunday at the half.
The Pick: Colts 1H -4
The Future is now — Chargers @ Bengals -3 Total 50.5
Hello 2025 AFC Championship game! Nice to meet you. We look forward to the highlights from this showdown being shoved in our face for the next decade. Not only are Burrow and Herbert some of the brightest emerging stars in the NFL, but their playing styles all but guarantee they are going to have a long successful career on the big stage. Could they be the next Manning vs. Brady? Not quite — but this upcoming rivalry will be a lot of fun between quality franchises without a Super Bowl ring for years to come. Don’t be a victim of recency bias with the Chargers coming off an ugly loss to the Broncos, and the Bengals throwing another pile of dirt on Big Ben’s grave. Cinci has been red hot lately, but never forget it was only a month ago they forced everyone to believe in Mike White for seven days. These teams are about as evenly matched as you can imagine which leads us to two conclusions: Fade the public and Take the Points (R.I.P. for those who know).
The Pick: Chargers +3.5 (Buy .5)
Lay the Beef — Jaguars @ Rams -12.5 Total 47.5
We at the Degen are certainly not in the business of laying big numbers on favorites, but given the climate of this year and even more importantly the current situation in L.A. we aren’t terrified to take a swing a this big number. There is nothing magical we can tell you about this game you don’t already know. The Rams have a million times more talent than the Jags. But, they have been in an absolute tailspin losing three games in a row. We (and everyone else) think this is a much needed get right spot for McVay and his Pro Bowl roster of Diva’s. Think of the softest bully from the middle school yard. Sure, they’re a wimp compared to the big dogs, but they will wipe the floor with a few nerds and puff their chest out if given the opportunity. If you wanna get greedy on a classic “Team A is way better than Team B” spot then this is it.
The Pick: Rams -12.5
A Monday night masterpiece — Patriots @ Bills -2.5 Total 43.5
OOF! This might be the toughest game to pick of the season. We were apprehensive of even adding it, but it must be done, because one side just feels right. And it’s the side nobody is talking about, which is surprisingly the home favorite. The Patriots are the hottest team in the league. They’ve won 6 straight games. Good, right? Well…they’ve also covered in all 6 wins. Belichick is out for fucking blood right now. Mac Jones appears to be the favorite for OROY. Everything is just going a bit too well right now, while the opposite can be said for the Bills. Buffalo did what was expected of them on Thanksgiving making light work of a pretty bad Saints team when lead by Trevor Siemian. If you keep your ear to the streets, you’ll notice the pro’s and joe’s are both aligned with the Patriots catching points this weekend. If you choose to back Buffalo like we do, you’re riding with Vegas here. That’s something we find profitable in the long run.
The Pick: Bills ML
A quick lesson in reading line movement — Giants @ Dolphins -5 Total 40.5
This is not an official pick but a perfect example of something we like to educate bettors on. There are sharps that hit the market early, and ones that come in late. It’s all about finding the right number. Miami opened up as a-2.5 point favorite, and it’s been bet all the way up to -5. Now, we are not saying we like the Giants or the Fins here, but what we think you should monitor is if there ends up being some buyback on the Giants before kickoff. Personally, we feel these are when the sharpest of gamblers strike. If you see this come back down to 4.5 or 4, it could be worth a shot to back the Gmen.
Bookie Pick of the Week
What the bookie wants the bookie gets! Don’t doubt it — Seahawks +3.5 (buy .5)
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! — Bucs/Falcons UNDER 50
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
Current Record: 43–33 YTD
(10–2) Western Kentucky vs (11–1) #22 UTSA -3
Let’s start it off with a little Friday night delight! Bet you thought we would pass on this game. Ha! Think again. This has all the makings for a trap trap. First glance at this spread and we know you said to yourself “that spread is low, makes me like WKU”. NOPE! Look closer friends. WKU has the 2nd best offense in the nation averaging 525 yds/game and 43 pts/game. UTSA might be the ranked team, but they aren’t the trendy pick. WKU is taking in 63% of the bets yet this line ticked up from UTSA -2.5 to now -3. The public are backing two things here. 1) Recency bias — UTSA just lost their last game of the season 45–23 to North Texas. 2) WKU is out for revenge. These teams met earlier in the year and WKU lost a shootout 52–46. The revenge angle is a public favorite. Us? We want revenge on revenge!
The Pick: UTSA ML
(10–2) #10 Oregon vs (9–3) #17 Utah -2.5
Oh my goodness we are salivating at this line. These teams just met two weeks ago, and featured in our write up as we backed the Utes. They made us proud with a 38–7 dominating win over Oregon. But we always love to say that it’s very hard to beat the same team twice. Now I know we just talked about not playing the revenge angle, but that’s not the reason we like Oregon here. The line says it all. They’re on a neutral field, Utah just beat them by 31 points, and the respect they’re getting from Vegas is only a field goal. Seem right to you? Because this stinks to us. Another reverse line, as Utah is getting 58% of the bets but the line moved down from -3 to -2.5. Stretch those wings — it’s time to quack!
The Pick: Oregon +2.5
(10–2) #9 Baylor vs (11–1) #5 Oklahoma St -5.5
Being honest here, it’s probably best just to stay away from this one. We thought this was a lot of points for Ok St and felt the public would be all over Baylor. We were wrong. It’s not too lopsided, with 55% going on State, but the sharp money is hitting Baylor. This is a classic contrarian spot that we just can’t pass up. Sure, we aren’t getting the best number as it opened -6.5, but let’s buy it a bit to be safe.
The Pick: Baylor +6 (buy .5)
(12–0) #1 Georgia vs (11–1) #3 Alabama +6
Oh baby. For those that are new here, we always talk about prime buy low spots. None and we mean NONE better than Alabama being an underdog for the first time in 92 games. This line opened -4 and Georgia has been taking alllll the money. Now it’s up to 6, and we’d LOVE to get Saban around a touchdown. If you want to sit and wait to see if this line gets higher, so be it. We don’t mind buying points for added insurance, and the thought of getting Bama +7.5 here is worth every penny.
The Pick: Alabama +7.5 (buy 1.5 if needed)
(11–1) #21 Houston vs (12–0) #4 Cincinnati -10.5
For these last two games, we’re zigging and zagging. Anytime there’s a similar spread with two primetime matchups, we always feel one favorite will cover, and one won’t. Our gut says Cincy is the one that covers. If you feel differently, no harm in going opposite. This line seems too high, and leads us to believe the Bearcats bring their A game. Houston is a very worthy adversary here. They lost the first game of the season and then ripped off 11 straight wins. To see them getting double digits points on a neutral field is a bit surprising, and our pick was solidified after seeing Houston taking 68% of the tickets.
The Pick: Cincinnati -10.5
(11–1) #2 Michigan vs (10–2) #13 Iowa +11
Michigan you made us damn proud! In our write up of college future bets back in August we gave out our boy Blue to win the Big 10 at +2500. Some may call this a hedge, and that’s fair, but we do like pesky Kirk Ferentz and this Iowa team to keep it close. Michigan just won their Super Bowl, so this is the mother of all let down spots. Plus they’ve got to win this to solidify their spot in the playoff. Iowa on the other hand had to claw back to beat fucking Nebraska. Nothing more frightening than a team in a conference championship game playing with house money.
The Pick: Iowa +11
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