Take Back The House: Montana At-Large

What Every Concerned Liberal Should Know About Montana’s Democrats

[This is free for reproduction without attribution]

“GOP-Presidents, Democratic Statewide” — this more or less sums up Montana. Montana has only 1 congressional seat so it represents the entire State. Democrats nominated Rob Quist. You can read further write-ups of him here. Special Election is on May 25th, 2017.

We’ll let the voting data show what we mean about “GOP-Presidents, Democratic Statewide”. Let’s take a look at the voting data starting at the top of the ticket.

Presidential Voting Record:

2008: McCain 49.5%, Obama 47.1%

2012: Romney 56.4%, Obama 41.7%

2016: Trump 55.6%, Clinton 35.4%, Johnson 5.6%

To put this in perspective of surrounding States: Montana’s presidential voting margins are far narrower than Idaho, North & South Dakota, and Wyoming which all voted for Trump by 59% or more.

This isn’t exactly a great selling point of why to support this race, but the following information about statewide elected Democrats is far brighter. We’ll start with just the Governor and U.S. Senators from Montana.

Montana State-Wide Office Holders Chronologically:

2004: Brian Schweitzer (D) is elected to MT Governor

2006: Jon Tester (D) is elected to U.S. Senate — he and Max Baucus (D) represent MT in U.S Senate [2 U.S Senators, both Democratic]

2008: Schweitzer (D) re-elected to Governor w/ 65%

2012:Jon Tester (D) re-elected to U.S. Senate w/ 48.4%

2012: Steve Bullock (D) elected to Governor w/ 48.9%

2014: Steve Daines (GOP) elected to U.S. Senate

[Baucus was picked to be ambassador to China. He was replaced by John Walsh who dropped his re-election bid in August ’14 when it came out that he plagiarized parts of his dissertation at the Army War College. Steve Daines won his seat in November 2014.]

2016: Steve Bullock (D) re-elected w/ 50%

In the last 10 years, folks in Montana have at one time had a Democratic Governor and been represented by Two Democratic U.S. Senators.

This is a big deal. Because Montana’s sole congressional seat is voted state-wide it has the exact same base of voters that the U.S. Senate and Governor have. These Democratic victories haven’t been blow outs and many Democrats have won with less than 50% of the vote w/Libertarians tending to undercut GOP/Dem support. Nevertheless, a win is a win.

For some reason, though, the U.S. House seat there hasn’t been in Democratic hands for a long time. Here’s a short background on Montana’s sole congressional seat.

Montana U.S. House of Rep Background:

GOP since 1996.

Ryan Zinke’s winning %age in 2016: 56.19%

Ryan Zinke’s 2014: 55.4%

Daines 2012: 71%

Rehberg 2010: 60%

There’s a lot of fluctuations in GOP win margins. The more important part of this data, though, is that in the last two election cycles the race has been won by no more than 56% of the vote. This margin is narrower than the GA-6th Congressional District race where Jon Ossof is seeking to claw back a Congressional seat that’s been in GOP hands since 1979.

[For the record, this is not to say folks should support one or the other. This is to say: if you got excited about flipping GA-6th then we need to get really excited about flipping Montana’s At-Large seat!]

Please post, share and amplify this information. Copy it for your own articles. Montana is our best opportunity to date to take a seat from the Republicans and show Trump this #Resistance means business and means it everywhere.