It’s Time To Limit Gatherings & Close Our Schools — To Avoid An Elder Cull
In 1918, the Spanish Flu culled about a quarter of the world’s population. In the USA, cities and states were decimated as the pandemic — which many believe originated here — swept across the country. And today, in the face of the first major global pandemic since then, a one hundred year event, our federal government is acting in the same way that cost tens of thousands of lives during the Spanish Flu just over a century ago.
That is, government authorities are lying, obfuscating, denying and minimizing the threat to prop up business and our economy. It looks like the great cull of 2020 is upon us, only this time the majority of pandemic casualties will be seniors. For context, here’s what a recent Smithsonian Magazine article had to say about 1918:
Across the country, public officials were lying. U.S. Surgeon General Rupert Blue said, “There is no cause for alarm if precautions are observed.” New York City’s public health director declared “other bronchial diseases and not the so-called Spanish influenza…[caused] the illness of the majority of persons who were reported ill with influenza.” The Los Angeles public health chief said, “If ordinary precautions are observed there is no cause for alarm.”
Today, it is clear that like 1918, the US government and many local authorities have chosen economic health over public health. They are, it appears, prepared to CULL an entire generation of elders. On Saturday, March 7th, for example, the Associated Press reported that the White House vetoed the CDC’s recommendation that all seniors be warned not to fly.
So it’s not “OK Boomer,” it’s now “Goodbye Boomer.” Otherwise, local, state and the federal governments would be testing more people, issuing clear and unequivocal warnings to all at-risk populations, like seniors, and closing schools.
And I’m sorry to say, this is also true in our own Jackson County, where even though we have two confirmed cases, with many more potentially infected people awaiting test results, our local school boards are keeping schools open. That’s a problem.
First, the literature is very clear that the mortality rate in 1918 was significantly impacted by how quickly non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including self-isolation, large gathering bans and school closures were implemented, and many more died when that process was delayed — when the decision to close was taken after community transmission was well established. The research shows clearly that the duration of NPIs also plays an important role, the longer NPIs are in place, the lower the mortality rates.
This Twitter thread, conveniently rolled-up into a single document, from physician and Yale professor Nicholas Christakis, MD, thoroughly documents the above statements with statistics, charts, graphs, and comparisons between two US cities that took different approaches, St. Louis and Pittsburgh. If you are evidence driven, like I am, then do take the time to read the cited thread. The findings are clear, and to ignore them is public service malpractice — it’s that simple.
Second, in this novel Corona Virus (COVID-19) the young are the least affected by the illness, and can even be carriers when symptom free. When kids do contract the virus, it often appears to be nothing more than the common cold — and a mild one at that. So here’s the deal, these same kids are likely to become vectors of transmission to older, more susceptible populations. Just one grandchild visiting a nursing home could easily condemn 20 percent of the residents to death.
This oft-cited study conducted in Britain in 2010 by the public health service and several universities points out that: “Simulation studies suggest that school closure can be a useful control measure during an influenza pandemic, particularly for reducing peak demand on health services.” And that’s considering influenza, which is a known virus with available vaccines. The Novel Corona Virus, COVID-19, is a brand new virus and nobody anywhere has immunity, except for those who’ve already been infected and recovered — and even that is questionable as several recovered individuals in China have been re-infected according to authorities.
In Jackson County, Oregon, where the author lives, the population is approximately 280,000. If 40 percent of the local population comes down with the Corona Virus, that’s 112,000 sick residents. It is important to acknowledge that the vast majority of these cases will be mild, perhaps 90 percent. Statistics from China, Korea and Italy suggest that approximately 10 percent of cases may require hospitalization, and many of that number will need intensive care — and some will need ventilators. So what are we looking at here in the Rogue Valley? Slightly over 10,000 really sick individuals who require hospitalization. That will put an almost impossible strain on our health care delivery system. But more important, somewhere between 1,000 and 2,000 will die in our local hospitals, at skilled nursing facilities, group living homes, or at home.
We’ve moved in this country from “containment” to “mitigation” and even if the above scenario is worst case, and I certainly hope it is, it is time to limit large gatherings in counties statewide and close our schools now, proactively — to prevent as many deaths as we can. At least until en-mass testing is available — which is not now the case.
Isn’t it our responsibility as a community, as neighbors, and as moral beings, to prevent an impossible strain on our hospitals and keep our community mortality rate as low as possible?
Of course, the USA has some of the worst sick pay regulations in the developed world and it is a fact that many low-wage workers will not be in a financial position to afford staying home. These same low-wage workers often rely on schools for childcare and also for nutrition through school lunch programs.We will need to address these issues to make school closures work for all our citizens.
Please contact your County Commissioners and School Board members if you agree. We can’t afford to wait any longer. It’s time to limit large gatherings, including religious services, meetings, festivals and sporting events. And it is long past time to close our schools.
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Charles McHenry, Central Point, Oregon
Former RN, nursing educator, and former La Clinica (FQHC) board member, Co-founder of Trilobyte Games, LLC of Medford, Oregon, Former Oregon State Telecommunications Councilor (appointed by gov. Kitzhaber)
