The bet seems poorly defined. Anyone can make a hardfork of Bitcoin at any time. There is no need (technically speaking) to have any kind of activation threshold.

Suppose I make a fork where miners are allowed to give themselves 50 BTC reward per block going forward. That’s a hard fork — a very unpopular one, but a hard fork all the same. Your 2nd criterion won’t be met:

> At the moment the network upgrades (or forks), 95% or more of all consumer wallet and merchant companies will support the new version

I would be surprised if anyone supported the new version. Why are (were?) you willing to bet that 95% of merchants would be willing to support a hard fork before you even know what the hard fork does?