Yahya Sinwar | The man between thorns and cloves, the new hawkish leader of Hamas
For some, it was a surprise, while for others, it was precisely what was expected. After the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s Political Bureau, on July 31, Yahya Sinwar was appointed as his successor.
Before discussing Sinwar, a brief note: Even though the assassination in Tehran sent shockwaves, some experts closely following the Middle East had not ruled out this possibility. One was Professor Sherifa Zuhur, Director of the Middle East Institute, whom I spoke with in December 2023. Zuhur had said seven months ago, “Maybe Israel will do something crazy; it could try to kill Hamas leaders and target them for assassination, as it did in Tunisia. However, there are Hamas leaders elsewhere in other countries. If leaders are killed, others will take their place.” The experienced political scientist was referring to Israel’s assassination of Mohammed Zevvari, a member of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, by the Mossad in 2016.
Even if Israel does not claim responsibility for the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran, there are indeed crazy things beyond predictions. And the position of the deceased is being filled. So, who is Yahya Sinwar, the new leader?
Sinwar: Israel’s Nightmare
For Israel, Sinwar is a nightmare, while for many Palestinians, he is associated with a mix of fear and respect. The reason is his resistance against Israel and his decision to remain in impoverished Gaza, unlike other Hamas leaders, even though he is rarely seen.
In April 2022, Hamas’s new leader mixed with the public in Gaza on a rare occasion. He challenged Israel by saying, “I will walk home after this meeting.” He even shook hands with people and took selfies in the streets of Gaza. Since then, he has not been seen, at least to our knowledge…
The Brain Behind the October 7 Attacks
Yahya Sinwar is thought to be one of the key figures behind the October 7 Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, which involved attacks against Israel. He is now the new political leader of the organization.
At 61 years old, he was born in a refugee camp in the Gaza Strip. He has led Hamas in Gaza since 2017. Since October 7, it is believed that he has been hiding in tunnels in the Gaza Strip.
These tunnels, built for commercial transport from Egypt to Gaza under the economic blockade, have long served as an underground military headquarters, with some reports indicating they stretch up to 14 kilometres.
Familiar with Israel’s Inner Workings
Yahya Sinwar’s house was bombed three times: in 1988, 2012, and 2021. He survived all three. He has been imprisoned four times, the longest being the most recent. He spent a total of 22 years in Israeli prisons, including four years in solitary confinement.
This long period behind bars has significantly impacted his character. These years partly shaped his transformation and his prominent presence within Hamas.
While in Israeli prisons, Sinwar established himself as a solid and authoritative figure. He was known for disciplining those around him and even participating in negotiations on behalf of other prisoners.
Some say he was a control freak who punished those he suspected of being informants. Sinwar’s rigid stance during this time attracted the organization’s attention and paved the way for his rise within Hamas after his release.
For Sinwar, imprisonment was a period of proving himself within the organization and demonstrating his character. It is known that he learned Hebrew fluently to understand Israeli society better. He did this by participating in an online university program while in prison and following Israeli media.
After learning the enemy’s language, his first task was to read the autobiographies of former Israeli Internal Security Service Shin Bet’s leaders. He translated thousands of forbidden Hebrew autobiographies into Arabic and shared them with other prisoners.
According to his understanding, everyone needed to know the enemy closely. This allowed him to gain in-depth knowledge about Israel’s counter-terrorism strategies. His years in prison, where he closely examined Israeli culture, society, and political life, contributed to his prominence within Hamas.
An article by Ephrat Livni in the New York Times mentions that during this period, Sinwar developed a close relationship with Israeli dentist Yuval Bitton. Bitton states that Sinwar secretly shared the pages he translated from Hebrew to Arabic with other prisoners and enjoyed presenting himself as an expert on the history of the Jewish people.
Thorn and Carnation…
During his prison days, Hamas’s new leader didn’t just do translations. He also incorporated historical developments into a novel, depicting his world. The story “Thorn and Carnation,” based on a mix of fiction and actual events, begins just before the 1967 defeat and the Arab-Israeli War.
The protagonist, Ahmed, dreams that the Arab armies will defeat Israel and free Palestine, allowing refugees to return home. Ahmed sympathizes with the Egyptian soldiers but is bewildered when defeat comes.
In “Thorn and Carnation,” as it depicts the beginning of resistance against the Israeli occupation, the main character Ahmed’s father and uncle die fighting against the Israeli army. Sinwar includes characters in his book which reflect a PLO member and, in fact, the founder of Hamas, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, through a “cousin” named Ibrahim.
The novel also features sold-out Palestinians who were spies for Israel and later killed, as well as a happy Gaza dream. Sinwar speaks of the carnations as symbols of happiness in the suffering and troubled Gaza.
“Thorn and Carnation” is a post-1967 chronology emphasizing military operations, historical processes, and reflections on social life. Written by Sinwar in 2004, this semi-fictional novel offers insights into his world and perspective on the Palestinian issue 20 years later. It portrays a world filled with distrust, anger, vengeance, political divisions, fragmentation, and loyalty.
Freedom: A Thousand to One
So, how did the new Hamas leader Sinwar, whom Israel is searching for everywhere today, manage to leave prison and gain freedom? The person who determined Sinwar’s freedom was an Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit.
On June 25, 2006, Shalit was captured by Hamas militants during a cross-border raid and held captive for more than five years. Sinwar was one of the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Shalit after five years of negotiations. I say one because, as many of you might recall, in return for Shalit’s freedom, 1,026 Palestinians, including Yahya Sinwar, were released. In other words, the path to freedom for Hamas’s future commander passed through the freedom of a low-ranking Israeli soldier.
What Do Experts Say About Sinwar’s Move?
This real story brings to mind Gershon Baskin, whom I recently spoke with. Baskin, an Israeli political activist, mediated the release of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, held by Hamas.
According to Baskin, who believes that Israel’s next target after Haniyeh is Yahya Sinwar, here’s a summary of his recent comments received on August 7, without removing them from their context:
“Yahya Sinwar’s election as the new head of Hamas’s Political Bureau has disappointed those who hoped Hamas would step back and delegate leadership to others. Before Haniyeh’s death, internal Hamas discussions focused on pressuring the organization to disarm and integrate into a new Palestinian security/police force. It appears Sinwar opposes these disarmament discussions. Sinwar aimed to control Gaza modelled on Hezbollah without taking on governance responsibilities. This appointment is also a blow to moderate Sunni neighbours who believe Hamas has learned from its military losses and Israel’s physical destruction of Gaza.”
Baskin is of the view that Sinwar could condemn Palestinians to endless conflict. Professor Sherifa Zuhur, on the other hand, notes that Western media, especially in the U.K., views Sinwar as an obstacle to negotiations, yet “The same media ignores Haniyeh’s assassination, which is surprising to me. Hamas has indeed signalled its commitment to resistance. However, if Hamas wants to negotiate, it can do so.” She also mentions that Sinwar, appointed to Hamas’s political leadership, adopts a much harsher and uncompromising stance than others.
The “Walking Dead” in Israel’s Eyes
Ultimately, the current number one interlocutor or target for Israel is Yahya Sinwar, who, after his prison experience, has managed to unite various factions within Hamas and maintains a commitment to armed resistance, blending with pragmatism.
Sinwar, one of the central planners of the October 7 attacks, is described by the Israeli government as a “Walking Dead.” Israeli military spokesperson Admiral Daniel Hagari stated to Al-Arabiya television, “There is only one place for Sinwar, and that is with Muhammad Deif and the October 7 terrorists. This is the only place we have prepared and planned for him.” Hagari had previously labelled Sinwar as “a killer who proved to the world that Hamas is worse than ISIS.”
This “ISIS comparison” is not new. It is not only a rare issue shared by people at different ends of Israeli society but also highlights the sharp criticism from figures like Gershon Baskin of the far-right government policies and military strategies during the Gaza War. Baskin says, “(In the Middle East, the Sunni neighbours of Palestine) are now faced with the reality that Hamas’s fate must resemble that of ISIS.”
Meanwhile, Western media suggests that this leadership choice might provoke Israel more, potentially motivating it to become more aggressive in the coming days. In other words, Sinwar’s appointment could be seen as good news for Netanyahu and the Tel Aviv administration, equating the presence of power with the continuation of war.
The Common Ground Between Sinwar and Netanyahu
At this point, the parallel between Yahya Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is worth mentioning. Both bear the label of war criminals. As remembered, in May, International Criminal Court prosecutors requested arrest warrants for Netanyahu, the Israeli defence minister, and Sinwar, citing the October 7 attacks and war crimes as reasons.
Before October 7: The “Butcher of Khan Younis”
Everyone knows Yahya Sinwar as the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks, where 1,200 Israelis were killed and 250 people were taken hostage in a historic, unprecedented assault. But, of course, every story has a backstory.
Sinwar’s rise to prominence in the Middle East is often linked to his leading role in the execution of Palestinian informants in the late 1980s. His nickname, “Butcher of Khan Younis,” stems from his brutal methods.
Michael Koubi, a former Shin Bet officer who interrogated Sinwar for over 150 hours in Israeli prisons, claims that Sinwar used razors and machetes to severely beat and torture Hamas members whom he suspected of collaborating with Israel.
Is Diplomacy Now in the Hands of the Military Wing?
The timing of Sinwar’s leadership appointment is as significant as his identity and reputation. The environment is tense, with Iran and Hezbollah vowing revenge. There is concern that the Gaza War, approaching its first anniversary, might escalate into a regional conflict. American and Qatari mediators are trying to keep the possibility of negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of hostages on the table. Still, the assassination of Haniyeh weakens these possibilities.
Sinwar’s appointment as head of Hamas’s Political Bureau signifies that the leadership of Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, has replaced the exiled leadership. In other words, Hamas’s political affairs and diplomacy are now under the control of the military wing based in Gaza rather than the faction living in exile in countries like Qatar.
A “Significant Player” Message from the U.S.
Will Sinwar continue with ceasefire negotiations? Osama Hamdan, a spokesperson for Hamas and head of the International Relations Department, believes that Sinwar will continue these negotiations. Hamdan reflects the organization’s official stance, not just his personal view. According to him, the main issue in negotiations is not the internal leadership change within Hamas but rather Israel and the U.S. themselves.
Previously, in September 2015, the U.S. had placed Sinwar’s name on the international terrorism blacklist. Today, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has sent a message indicating that Sinwar remains a crucial decision-maker in the ceasefire process and will continue to be so. Hamas, meanwhile, wants a guarantee of a ceasefire until the terms of the hostage exchange are established.
According to health ministry data from the Gaza War, the number of identified casualties is approaching 40,000, with the majority being women and children.
Sinwar-Iran Relations
Another question concerns the nature of Sinwar’s relationship with Iran and Hezbollah. Sinwar had previously praised Tehran’s financial and logistical support for Hamas. One such statement dates back to May 23, 2018, when Sinwar could still appear on live television broadcasts before going entirely underground.
In an interview with the Hezbollah-supporting Lebanese channel al-Mayadeen TV, Sinwar described Hamas’s relationship with Qassem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, as strong, effective, and warm. During the same broadcast, he remarked, “We have excellent, highly advanced relations with our Hezbollah brothers. We work together, coordinate, and communicate almost daily.”
Despite these statements, some political analysts suggest that Sinwar’s stance towards Iran parallels that of Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. That is a profile rejecting Shia theology but aligning with anti-Israel objectives and methods.
Hamas Chooses Its Toughest Figure
Haniyeh was killed. Hamas is now under the control of a more challenging man who fights from within the organization. Instead of more moderate and pragmatic figures like Khaled Meshaal, Deputy Head of the Political Bureau Khalil al-Hayya, or Musa Abu Marzouk, who is initially an industrial engineer, Hamas has chosen one of its most hardline, feared, and undoubtedly charismatic figures.
Hamas’s decision reflects a psychological strategy, even though the organization suffered a severe blow with the recent assassination. Sinwar, who has been fighting Israel from the shadows for years, profoundly understands strategy and patience.
He once said, “The greatest gift Israel could give me is to kill me. I prefer to be martyred by an F-16 than to die from coronavirus or another disease.” A radical facing off against Israel’s most radical, messianic, and aggressive government, Sinwar’s arrival will be closely watched to see where the events in the Middle East will lead.
