If you’re interested in entering the discussion about why the American empire is in danger of collapsing, these two books will serve as a beginning primer.
The End Is Always Near
Apocalyptic Moments, From the Bronze Age Collapse to Nuclear Near Misses
Dan Carlin (Pub 2019)
Carlin is the host of the immensely popular podcast, Hardcore History, (Apple podcast link) and this book is an extension of some of his podcasts.
His central thesis in all of this is:
- The more states increase their power, the more of their resources they devote to maintaining it
- The capacity to engage in war/conflict with another power depends on the level of resources needed to win and/or maintain the existing empire.
- States/empires begin to fail when they have to borrow money to maintain their empire and the conflicts.
- When they run out of borrowing power, they fail.
He writes in an engaging manner and the fact he’s using his podcast transcripts may account for some of this professionally relaxed voice in his writing.
He illustrates his thesis with specific moments both from ancient history and the near nuclear misses of the modern era.
The book is well worth the quick read of 246 pages.
He also gives a reasonable number of “further resources” to read in the index for every chapter.
If you’re looking for a fast read and an enjoyable one to understand this subject, I’d highly recommend this book.
But Having Said That
This book was preceded by
The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers
Paul Kennedy (Pub 1986)
This book is far more complete in explaining the same thesis but it shifts time frame away from the (mostly) ancient world of Carlin’s book to the years 1500 to 2000.
The New York Times reviewer had this to say:
“He expands his thesis in the introduction and epilogue. It can be easily summarized: The more states increase their power, the larger the proportion of their resources they devote to maintaining it. If too large a proportion of national resources is diverted to military purposes, this in the long run leads to a weakening of power. The capacity to sustain a conflict with a comparable state or coalition of states ultimately depends on economic strength; but states apparently at the zenith of their political power are usually already in a condition of comparative economic decline, and the United States is no exception to this rule.
Power can be maintained only by a prudent balance between the creation of wealth and military expenditure, and great powers in decline almost always hasten their demise by shifting expenditure from the former to the latter. Spain, the Netherlands, France and Britain did exactly that. Now it is the turn of the Soviet Union and the United States.”
In other words, pretty much what Carlin says. This book is far more dense — as befits a book written by an academic — 540 pages with an extensive index of further reading
The Significant Difference Between The Two Books
Kennedy took quite a bit of flack for the last 30 pages or so where his publisher asked him to comment on the decline of the American empire (remember written in 1986 only 10 years after Vietnam) and he did so with the same set of criteria of military engagement and financial management. This drew significant argument from some economists and politicians.
Carlin does not deal with the American situation.
The Bottom Line
If you want to read an engaging book on the subject, read Carlin’s book. I’d recommend this if you’re at all interested in history and understanding how and why some of these amazing civilizations fell.
Kennedy’s book is far more complete — focussed on a more modern era — and is a bit of a slog to get through it unless you’re a serious student of history.
A Personal Note:
A quick review of online comments shows many commentators (particularly those in the U.S.) do not agree with either Carlin or Kennedy when the books would suggest the the American empire is in danger of failing. There are those who suggest even the characteristics of ancient empire failures do not apply to a modern world and its economic models.
I have no deep background to comment on the intricacies of modern economics.
What I do have is my Scottish grandmother’s saying, “The piper must be paid.” (Every Scot knows the piper is always paid for playing — in coin or drink.)