How to (Actually) Fix the The NBA Draft Lottery
The NBA Lottery system is fucked. Here’s how to fix it.
Over the last decade, every expert, fan, journalist, podcast host, and Ringer contributor have made their case for what an NBA Draft Lottery reform should look like — what, how, and why it should change. The NBA took matters into their own hands prior to the 2017–18 season and tweaked the way the system will work starting in 2019. If you don’t feel like reading, don’t worry, not much has changed. It still encourages tanking (maybe even more than now).
The system should be easy to comprehend but difficult for teams to manipulate.
The NBA Lottery System needs to not just reward those losing, but those with overachieving rosters who play hard every night, who have strung together functional organizations, and have fanbases that show up to the arena to support their team. The system should be easy to comprehend but difficult for teams to manipulate.
Disclaimer I: I will be referring to teams mostly as “organizations.” Teams, typically thought of as players and coaches, aren’t necessarily the winners or losers of the NBA Draft Lottery. Players and coaches could turn over completely within a few seasons. The lottery has to take the entire organization’s success, or lack there of, and their fanbase (yes, fanbase) into consideration when determining the order of the lottery.
Disclaimer II: I’m a diehard Chicago Bulls fan. While there were some ups to the 2017–2018 season, it was one of the biggest drags since the 1999–2000 season. I do not blame the Chicago Bulls organization for going in this direction. I blame the league. Though they don’t promote tanking, they reward it.
The Main Problems:
- Even with the new system starting in 2019, organizations still get rewarded for tanking. The odds of winning the lottery starting in 2019 become a little less likely for those with the worst record, but a little more likely for those with slightly better records. This is what actually makes it easier–not necessarily to get the 1st pick, but getting a top 3 pick.
- This system sucks for fans. There were legitimately 10 organizations that deliberately tanked during the 2017–18 season. That means approximately 1/3 of the league’s fanbase doesn’t give a shit about watching their team. Why should fans root for their organization to tank and not make the playoffs? This may sound nuts, but while I’d rather see my organization succeed, in their current state I want to see them get a top pick. So in some ways, I am rooting for them to lose.
- The current lottery sucks for organizations in the middle, the ones that make it out of the gutter, but have a hard time becoming title contenders. Hello, Portland Trailblazers!
- The current rules are arbitrary. It only takes into consideration organizations who don’t make the playoffs, as if the 14th worst team deserves a better chance than the 15th worst team. It also only determines the Top 3 picks — why?
- The system places the best young players in the hands of the worst of the organization and/or rosters. This sucks for the player. It sucks for the fans. It sucks for the game.
Who should the lottery include?
My proposal for the new system will take 25 organizations into consideration. Why? Because if you’re in the Top 5, lets face it, you’re already pretty damn good. Good enough that you’re probably a title contender. Sorry, Golden State Warriors!
For the organizations outside of those Top 5, it looks something like this:
- On the Verge of potential Stardom (Minnesota Timberwolves, Philadelphia 76ers)
- Pretty Good (Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets)
- Middle of the Road (Miami Heat, Charlotte Hornets)
- Not Terrible, Not Good (Detroit Pistons, LA Lakers)
- Bad, Very Bad (Sacramento Kings, Orlando Magic)
So let’s give all these organizations a better chance of taking the next step!
A New Point System
Each of those 25 organizations will receive points based on 4 different Stat Buckets. If you have the “best” stat within that bucket, you get 25 points. If you have the “worst” stat you get 1 point. Each ‘Stat Bucket’ will be weighed slightly different. The weight would be highest in ‘Stat Bucket 1’ and the lowest in ‘Stat Bucket 4’. The points will be added up and the organization with the highest amount of points (kind of, like, you know, a basketball game) wins! And the order of the rest of the lottery, not just the top 3, will be determined by the points.
Are any of these individual Stat Buckets perfect indicators? No. But thats why there’s multiple — to balance things out and make it impossible for organizations to game the system. There should not be just one individual stat that determines the order of the NBA Draft.
The Stat Buckets
Stat Bucket 1: Point Differentiation
Keeping the game close.
The Point Differentiation Stat Bucket will reward the most points to teams with the smallest margin of average negative point differentiation throughout the regular season. Once we’ve reached the team with the largest margin of negative point differentiation, points will be given to teams based on the smallest margin of positive point differentiation. The least amount of points will be given to the team with the highest margin of positive point differentiation. Confusing? See my chart below which helps explain.
This stat will keep organizations and teams honest. It rewards those that believe in building chemistry, employing players that know how to compete, coaching staffs for getting the most out of their players, and teams that entertain their fan base. Most importantly, it rewards trying to be good.
This bucket will be weighted as the highest of the buckets, multiplying each team’s score by 1.75.
Stat Bucket 2: Win / Loss Record
Show some sympathy for the losers.
For the Win/Loss Record Stat Bucket, more points go to the teams with the worst record. While we don’t want to reward losing, this becomes just one stat to be taken into consideration.
This bucket will be weighted as the second highest of the buckets, multiplying each team’s score by 1.5.
This is where it gets fun…
Stat Bucket 3 : Fan Attendance (bare with me)
The true 6th man.
This rule calculates the percentage of individual entries into the arena throughout the regular season. It doesn’t calculate the total. That wouldn’t be fair to teams with bigger arenas and larger city populations. It doesn’t calculate number of season ticket holders or even percentage of tickets sold. It calculates how many fans actually show up to the arena to support their team.
Here’s why I believe this is important. Franchises are made up of the following groups of people — ownership, front office, trainers, coaching staff, players and fans. Players get traded or leave in free agency. Front office employees quit or get fired. Owners can sell their team at any point. Fans? They stick around for the long haul, through thick and thin. Hi Knick fans. And if not, this should entice them too. So lets reward those fans who deserve a good team!
This Stat Bucket is also a key indicator on whether or not a team with a bad record is overachieving, playing hard and entertaining their fans. It shows that the front office put together a team that actually makes sense, has chemistry and is fun to watch, even if they may be losing games. In turn, the more fans that are engaged in the game, the better chance you have to play that 6th man role which makes a huge difference in terms of competing — something that will help in the ‘Point Differentiation’ Stat Bucket.
This bucket will be weighted as the third highest of the buckets, multiplying each team’s score by 1.25.
Stat Bucket 4: Payroll
Don’t be financially irresponsible. Don’t be cheap.
No one wants to reward teams with huge payrolls. Typically those are the teams that are at the the top, and if you’re not and you have a high payroll, it is a pretty good indicator that you are not spending wisely (Brooklyn)— you’re not doing your due diligence in terms of recruiting, you’re overpaying mediocre players for some underlying reason, and you’r being financially irresponsible.
For those organizations NOT spending money — those who are just flat out cheap, will also learn less points.
The most points will be rewarded to those who stick closer to the salary cap, taking only the season prior to the upcoming Draft into consideration.
This bucket will not be weighted at all.
Note: Price is Right rules are not in effect.
Reference: https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/
Determining the Order / Tallying up the Totals
The total sum of each organization’s points from each Stat Bucket will then determine the order of the Top 25 of the NBA Draft. The organization with the highest amount of points will get the 1st pick and the rest of the draft order will be determined by the amount of points received. Those 5 teams not eligible for the lottery (the Top 5) will fall between picks 26–30 AND reward them by giving them picks 31–35 (because why not).
The Results:
Here is a spreadsheet for any of you nerds who want a closer look.
Simple enough right? I’ve had a lot of good questions along the way and have received a lot of positive feedback. I’m happy to answer your questions and hear your feedback @dougseidman.com or on Twitter @dougseidman.
