Is Twitter a Black Swan?


Twitter stock (TWTR) is taking beating on wall street last couple of weeks after latest quarterly earning report. Once again blogosphere is buzzing with posts declaring Twitter is Dead or Twitter is Not Dead. The point is, Twitter supporters, investors, users are once again discussing whether best days are behind for Twitter or not.

Silicon Valley says future is bright.

Ironically, Twitter’s demise is being discussed on Twitter itself. Silicon Valley (people who work in technology industry, even if do not live in Bay Area) thinks Twitter has fundamentally changed the way we communicate. Arab spring of 2010 is used as a prime example of how Twitter is now fundamentally intertwined with our freedom of expression and its impact on future society.

Wall Street says future is bleak.

However, Wall Street says TWTR is losing steam, growth is stalling, user engagement is dropping and losses are widening.

Main Street knows future is here.

Silicon Valley is quick to point out that Twitter is going Main Street. Twitter’s presence on News and Television outlets is hard to ignore. Now a days, any large event’s, whether it is an entertainment or political or sports event, success is more or less measured by the amount of buzz it creates on Twitter. Introduction of Nielsen Social says it all.

Is it possible that Wall Street and Silicon Valley are talking past each other ?

Twitter proponents thinks as long as people keep using Twitter the management will figure out a way to make boat loads of money. After all, have you seen any widely used commercial product that does not make money proportional to its impact on society?

Or is Twitter a Black Swan?