Where is the Pandemic in Germany leading us to?

Till now and to the date of my writing, the curve of infected cases is soaring exponentially, how will we flatten the curve, is the target of every government.

The clock is ticking and the world economy is heading nowhere but towards a definite depression. We must act smart before the numbers get totally out of control. I listened to Bill Gates a couple of days ago and his opinion about this whole situation, I must totally agree with him on this.

Panic is the pill of death in the following scenario, it is either you swallow it at once or not touch it at all, half panic is the worst of all.

Germany has been applying a partial lockdown till now, the curve of infections is still rising exponentially and I believe it won’t reach a flat curve only if extra or new social measures were applied. The good news is that the mortality rate is below 0.75% in Germany, thanks to the well-built healthcare system and that the virus hit mostly the younger portion of the population.

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CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins university center of systems science and engineering

Countries have been locking down without obvious rationale, countries are locking down because they have seen that others did it and they should do the same as well. China did it at the very start after detecting their case #100 and I have to admit they forcefully implemented the biggest human quarantine the world has ever known to date with over 100 million Chinese locked down at home and 780 million banned from travel. A very bold but successful move!

That is the right way of doing it, it is either you do a total shutdown for average 6–8 weeks or don’t do it at all. Partial lockdowns build a long germ disaster than full lock-downs. It is like you wanna go to work during a hurricane outside, you either stay at home (i.e. or better underground) or go out and accept the consequences, there is no middle way, taking public transportation won’t save you.

I won’t get into any conspiracy theories like many theorists suspecting China or even the world’s richest 1% who are behind the pandemic. I wanna highlight current facts and potential solutions in many countries, among them Germany should apply.

Again, it is either you do a full quarantine for everyone (my suggestion) or you do a full quarantine only for the high-risk groups and take drastic measures in daily testing the rest of the population to early detect the virus carriers while applying public distancing and so forth. In both cases, there is some sort of suffering, but it is temporary and essential to save the world economy from far more potential dangers.

In other words, the young ones have either mild or moderate symptoms and in over 99.5% of cases recover like in any normal influenza. Those who suffer are the ones who have compromised health conditions and catch the virus! It doesn’t mean that I am assuming that there were no children nor younger ones who got the virus nor died because of it. What I want to highlight is the fact that there are different measures to be taken for both groups. We have to divide the paths, why not protect those of a high-risk group and quarantine them instead of quarantining the whole society and bring the world to a devastating economical depression that could be even worse than 2008?!

We have currently crossed the 1 trillion USD worldwide in losses till the date of my writing, and it is expected by experts to cross the 2 trillion by Q3 or even before in 2020, by all means, the depression will be heavier in magnitude than that in 2008, and who will suffer? If it is for businesses, it will be mostly small, middle-sized businesses, family businesses, and startups. The last man standing will be the big whales and titans like Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook and etc.. The rest will be simply crushed to the bottom of the social and economic pyramid. A scenario we’ve learned from 2008, this time comes in a combo-package with society panicking from the pandemic as well as an economic meltdown that follows.

So do governments understand really the gravity of all this? Or do some understand but act blindly while others are doing what the first movers did with no real plan?

I will reflect a bit on myself, I own a medium-sized business where we make invisible clear aligners as an alternative to braces to straighten teeth. We provide clear aligners to the dentists and orthodontists. With the dental practices being a great medium for viral or bacterial transmission, dentists are affected most in the healthcare sector. As a matter of fact, it sounds highly unlikely that patients would want to straighten their teeth with clear aligners amid the social and economical panic. So basically, my value chain is cut down by multiples of magnitude and I might not know when it will get back to normal. My example is just a small one in comparison to many others who were hit even harder by the pandemic spread.

Another topic related to the public distancing seen everywhere (i.e will reflect on Germany this time)
This is my first time experiencing a pandemic. The previous pandemic was in 2009 H1N1, where back then I just graduated from dental school 2 years before and started my early carrier life. I was living in Egypt where the previous pandemic didn’t hit badly.

Seeing the pandemic exfoliate in the epicenter of the world, in Germany, was highly unlikely for me to expect.

I see people stand in lines in front of supermarkets to fight for toilet paper rights, or gather all dry food supplies possible or even at home arrange house parties online. What is this at all? there is enough food for us all, and there are certainly enough food supplies on earth, that could even feed another 7.8 billion on earth. This is called panic! people are in panic because they don’t know what their governments are doing nor where this all will be going!

The German government has announced in an official statement that people must stay distant by 1.5 to 2 meters apart and avoid gatherings, pubs, restaurants, and events must be canceled while jobs, supermarkets, hospitals, and pharmacies could stay functioning.

When I am walking anywhere in public nowadays it is like people are afraid from one another and even look at you with horror while using telepathy to transfer a message ‘I beg you please don’t come closer’, in the supermarket everyone keeps a distance or even reminds you proactively to keep a distance. Is keeping the distance the most effective solution at all to limiting the pandemic? Have we lost our minds and don’t understand anymore how the infection mechanism of viruses work?

I was yesterday in the supermarket to get some weekly supplies, a guy stopped me standing at a distance not less than 1.5 meters and told me to: “STOP” and “Take a step back, you are getting so close” with a shocking face, he took out from his jacket pocket a measuring tape to measure 2 meters distance between me and him!!!! I replied with a shocking face as well: “what do you mean?! I am already far away from you and by the way if there is an easy way you get the virus it will be from all the fridge door handles, goods being touched by others or even the card machine on checking out, Viruses will stick to these for at least 24 hours and will be easily transmitted to you with a light touch, Ohh I see you don’t have hand gloves on, your risk is at least double that of mine” looking at my hand gloves proudly :)

Viruses don’t radiate from my body to you, nor will it execute an airborne strike from my infected body to your sacred one when I approach you!

If we ought to protect our society, first protect the exposed surfaces in common gatherings during a pandemic as in SUPERMARKETS…

Supply everyone with hand gloves while entering or even masks if needed, supply disinfectants everywhere in the supermarket and even on exits. While keeping a social distance from one another is a good way to decrease the cross-infection potential, its effect is much smaller in preventing the pandemic than other measures that must be undertaken.

I hope our governments wake up and start to realize that is not just about being liberal and being civilized. Control the panic and educate the public correctly! If you wanna lockdown, do it right or don’t do it at all.

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