A Bitter Victory

Breaking down Michigan’s 28–16 win at Penn State

Michigan won at Penn State to complete its post-Michigan State shock loss quest of winning out up to The Game to put themselves in the best position for a shot at the B1G East (and, later, the whole B1G) title. Unfortunately, Ohio State couldn’t hold up their part of that feat, but I’ll get to that later. For now, I want to talk about this dominant performance against a team that many people in my circles were predicting would upset Michigan — and who I’ll have to cheer for next week to upset Michigan State.

Michigan came away with a convincing win over Penn State by just scoring 1 TD a quarter while stonewalling the Nittany Lions every time they made it to the red zone: 3 times they had 1st & goal, 3 times they had to kick a field goal. Penn State made all those chip shots and added a 25-yard TD pass, but it wasn’t nearly enough. The scoreline probably would have more accurately reflected the difference in performance had the refs not called 13 penalties for 117 yards on Michigan, vs. just 3 penalties for 30 yards on Penn State.

And yet, I can only call Michigan’s defense dominant in this game. True freshman Saquon Barkley broke a 56-yard run at the beginning of the game for Penn State, making Michigan fans wonder whether this one would look just like the previous week at Indiana, but thankfully it proved to be a massive outlier, with Michigan only allowing 14 more rushing yards the rest of the game. And even though the sole TD Michigan gave up was through the air, their pass defense was arguably just as dominant as the run D. Perennially over-hyped quarterback Christian Hackenberg completed just 13 of 31 passes for a measly 137 yards. He at least avoided throwing any interceptions, although Michigan had 2 late game opportunities that were dropped. That’s one area where I wish the Michigan defense could improve in: takeaways. It’s great having a defense that gives up so many yards, prevents so many 3rd down conversions, and stands strong so often at the goal-line, but the lack of interceptions or forced fumbles means they have to be out on the field even longer than the already long enough amount that the mediocre offense gives them.

Unlike Hackenberg, Jake Rudock did throw an interception. Michigan’s D bailed him out by forcing a 3 & out immediately after, but his overall stat line wasn’t very impressive either: a good enough completion ratio of 25 out of 38, but only for a decent 256 yards. I’ve been hearing him hyped up way too much lately, after 2 great performances that should be viewed in their proper light: they were consecutive career highs — meaning Rudock had never played like that before — against FBS bottom 5 or 10 pass defenses. Jim Harbaugh has tried to play off Rudock’s struggles each week, claiming he’s becoming better as he gains more familiarity with the system, but it’s clear that Harbaugh’s just trying to maintain the confidence of his clearly struggling graduate transfer quarterback, who’s apparently the only passable choice in the depth chart.

I believe that we should judge games like this one against Penn State according to what I term the Russell Wilson Rule. I was inspired to identify this Rule by the quarterback of my NFL team (the Seattle Seahawks) who has reaped so much of the benefits of leading this recent Hawks dynasty that his NFL record of most wins as a starting quarterback in his first 3 seasons (36) was the main justification for him receiving a new 4-year $87.6 million contract, only to struggle along with his team in the first year of that deal. This tough season has prompted a reevaluation of Wilson’s contribution to all those wins, the most damning result of which has been the fact that he has never won a game in which the Seahawks’ opponent scored 25 or more points. This relatively low score — a team could beat it by merely averaging 1 TD a quarter, as Michigan did against Penn State — seems to suggest that the Seahawks defense deserved more of a new contract than Wilson, who’s offensive stats haven’t been nearly as explosive. Granted, Wilson plays a particular role in Pete Carroll’s offense, specifically a game manager-type focused on minimizing mistakes and prolonging time of possession — just like Harbaugh’s offense — but considering how many defenders have left since the Seahawks’ lone Super Bowl win and how much a shadow of that team they are this season, it’s very much worth exploring. Thus, the Russell Wilson Rule states that, if a team gives up less than 25 points and wins, that victory should be attributed to the defense more than the quarterback. Exceptions will of course occur, in which case it’s necessary to review the game and how it played out, but as a rule of thumb, I think it will stand up, especially for offenses predicated on a game manager quarterback and power running.

So, according to the Russell Wilson Rule, we shouldn’t give Rudock that much credit for this win at Penn State, nor any others except the recent ones at Minnesota and Indiana. If the inverse of the Russell Wilson Rule is true (and I’m not sure whether it is or not), then you can blame Rudock more than the defense for the Utah loss (but just barely), though not the Michigan State loss.

Rudock’s 2 TDs were caught by Amara Darboh and Jake Butt, who were joined in leading the receiving yardage by his other favorite target, Jehu Chesson — there were 6 other players who tallied at least 1 reception, though, marking a return to the early season spread-it-around formula. I’ve been particularly impressed by our receivers commitment to blocking, especially cut blocks. Without much of a run game recently, those short passes that turn into moderate gains through blocking have been all the more valuable.

Speaking of that run game, it accumulated only 87 yards on the day, a decent portion of which came after Michigan had pretty much clinched the win. De’Veon Smith carried the ball 13 times for 39 yards (a 3.0 avg, not good enough to count on for 1st downs) and 1 TD, while Jabrill Peppers was used more often as a change-of-pace back than Drake Johnson, who failed to record any stats. Sione Houma got another TD, continuing to prove himself as a reliable scorer of ugly goal line dives. However, judging by how much Ohio State’s defense was gashed by Michigan State’s running game — which Michigan utterly shut down, only giving up yards through the now-unavailable Connor Cook-Aaron Burbridge combo — I’m hopeful that Harbaugh will be able to stick with his desired gameplan of controlling the game through a balanced offense and shutdown D.

Now, that Ohio State-Michigan State game. Shortly after Michigan lost to Michigan State in what will go down as one of the most infamous moments in that rivalry’s history, I was already calculating how we could possibly still compete for a title. It soon became apparent that we needed to win out the rest of the schedule, while Michigan State would have to lose 2 B1G games. I always figured 1 of those losses would be at Ohio State, so after the Spartans suffered that exciting loss against Nebraska, I was incredibly hyped up. The Game was shaping up to be truly important for both teams and the national FBS landscape for the first time in a while.

And then Ohio State went and absolutely blew it. Losing at home to Michigan State without Connor Cook while only giving your Heisman candidate running back 13 carries is unforgiveable. Urban Meyer should be deeply ashamed of this disappointing year, where he’s just scraped by with a squad whose National Champions from just last season have largely returned, winning against a string of unranked opponents in mostly unconvincing fashion before losing to the first ranked opponent (without their star player) in an entirely unconvincing fashion. Not to mention this poorly thought out quarterback competition — that Braxton Miller very wisely avoided, in hindsight, possibly boosting his NFL stock more than his would-be competitors — that involved a late and ultimately shaky commitment to the man who led a resounding campaign through the 2014 B1G Championship and inaugural College Football Playoff while looking like the next Daunte Culpepper before finally benching him for the 2014 Heisman race leader who lost out thanks to a season-ending injury only to come back this season looking impressive as a runner but not so much a passer. This Yahoo! Sports post does a good job explaining how this whole debacle isn’t exactly unprecedented:

This year bore a resemblance to Meyer’s 2009 season at Florida. Then, as now, he coached the defending national champions and top-heavy favorites to repeat. Then, as now, he lost his talented offensive coordinator to a head-coaching job (Dan Mullen to Mississippi State). Then, as now, the offense rarely, if ever, clicked the way it had before — but the wins kept coming.

And then, as now, there came a crushing upset loss that derailed a dynasty.

The ’09 Gators ran into Nick Saban and Alabama in the Southeastern Conference championship game and were routed. The ’15 Buckeyes ran into Mark Dantonio and Michigan State, as mentally tough a program as you will find.

Maybe Meyer, the only FBS coach of his generation who’s considered in Nick Saban’s class, isn’t as responsible for his perennially explosive spread offense-led national contenders as widely believed.

So what does all this mean for Michigan? As before, the Wolverines will have to win out, this time in Harbaugh’s biggest game as a Michigan coach to date. And since the Game is at noon EST — like seemingly half-to-two-thirds of Michigan’s games this season — they’ll get to watch Michigan State-Penn State starting at 3:30. Michigan will be cheering for the team they just dominated against their little brother, as Penn State has to win or else Michigan State clinches the B1G East title. Connor Cook is currently listed as day-to-day (shoulder sprain), and even if he’s able to play, he surely won’t be as prolific as he had been all season, so Penn State will have a chance if they can experience more success on offense than they did vs. Michigan. And if the Nittany Lions pull off that upset, Michigan-Ohio State will have retroactively been for the B1G East title.

Whoever finishes atop the B1G East, they’ll be facing undefeated Iowa, who clinched the B1G West this past week, in the B1G Championship. If Iowa wins, they’ll surely qualify for the College Football Playoffs as undefeated B1G champions, regardless of their strength of schedule. If Michigan State or Ohio State end up B1G Champions, they’ll most likely qualify with their 1 loss. Michigan’s future as a 2 loss team is murkier, even as B1G champions, but with those 2 blemishes finishing close against ranked opponents in major conferences (and even more acclaimed division), they have a shot. To hearken back to Bill Connelly of Football Outsiders’s S&P+ ratings that I referenced so often earlier in the season for this series of Medium posts, Michigan currently ranks 3rd in the FBS with an S&P+ margin of 21.5 — significantly below Clemson and Alabama, who both sit firmly at the top — and 9.6 2ndO Wins (+0.6 difference) while Ohio State is 5th with an S&P+ margin of 20.1 and 10.1 (+0.1) 2ndO Wins. Michigan State is down at 14th with an S&P+ margin of 13.3 and 8.0 (for a significant though not surprising -2.0 difference) 2ndO Wins and Iowa even further down at 29th with an S&P+ margin of 10.3 and 8.9 (for a similarly telling -2.1 difference, except in the woeful B1G West) 2ndO Wins.

As always, I have faith in my alma mater, and I’d savor a win over our biggest rival, at least until little brother’s game. I won’t care as much about anything afterward that’s not a B1G championship and/or CFB Playoff appearance, but I still appreciate that 2012 Sugar Bowl win, so an ex-BCS bowl would be a satisfactory consolation.