Predicting the future of tech
When geeks look at the future of tech, they’re seduced by fantasies of never ending, cutting edge improvement. They forget the effects that a good enough tech might have, once it is cheap and widely distributed.
Take airflight. In the 50s everybody expected planes to keep getting faster and more space age, so Don Draper could spend a little less time in his airborne cocktail bar. But that didn’t happen:
Unless you are an airplane nerd, you would be hard pressed to distinguish the 787 from its grandfather.
And in fact, this revolutionary new plane flies slower than the 707.
The basic configuration of an airliner has not changed in sixty years. You have a long tube, swept wings with multiple engines mounted underneath, and a top speed of around 900 kph.
So what happened to the future?
The future wasn’t better and better planes. It was cheap, widely available airflight. And that’s what changed the world.
If you’re trying to predict the future of any tech, don’t just ask “what will the tech be like in 10 years?”, but “what will the world be like if everybody has access to the tech that’s around today?”. That’s usually the more profitable question.
The future impact of mediocre smartphones throughout the world will be much, much more profound that whatever new tweak Apple and Google have up their sleeves.
