Developing a Market Simulation

David Horgan

Using Insightmaker to simulate the UK retail market.

Using Insightmaker a systems dynamics simulation with GDP as the input was developed. This flows to households as gross wages from which taxes are taken. The net wages then form the household disposable income which is spent as measured by the ONS.

The individual sector proportions are derived from the ONS disposable income statistic and the individual retailer sales are derived from sources such as the Kandar panel data and Statista. The online proportion of sales is derived from ONS statistics.

Time dependence has been added in this iteration of the simulation. GDP now increases at a rate of approximately 2.5% per annum in line with ONS statistics.

Retail sales are displayed as weekly, per capita sales with a sinusoidal seasonal component. The amplitude of this will need to be calibrated in future.

No time-dependent variation in Marketshare either between individual retailers or between instore and online retailers. Taxes are kept at a constant percentage. The parameters found from other investigations using fitted Lotka-Volterra parameters will enable these to be included in future.

Some variables such as taxes and savings are included but they have not as yet been extensively researched, parameterised or calibrated. Some variables such as taxes and savings are included but they have not as yet been extensively researched, parameterised or calibrated.

The seasonal dependence of retail sales has been modelled using a sinusoid amplitude with an annual periodicity. This needs further calibration at present.

This article of part of a larger project on the modelling of the UK retail market. Preliminary elements of this are available in a discursive rather than technical format on SlideShare, LinkedIn, Facebook and Medium.

Individual technical components are in the process of being assembled on Researchgate, Academia and Arxiv in preparation for publication in journals and a more extended book format.

David Horgan

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I am a theoretical physicist with a data science background. At present, I am developing a UK retail market using ABM, ML and computational econometrics.

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