Houston We Have Liftoff: NFL Season Predictions

Drew Balis
Sep 6, 2018 · 8 min read

Editor’s Note: Every September in the days leading up to the beginning of the NFL season, we go on the record with our predictions. Among the things we predict are record of each team and division standings, playoff outcomes, Super Bowl participants and winner, and season awards. You can find last year’s version here. We have a decent track record, but of course we get stuff wrong too. You can hold us accountable if we get stuff wrong. All we ask is that you don’t be a hardo who throws stones from your glass house. Have the courage to go on the record and the humility to admit when you are wrong. We sincerely hope you enjoy your predictions and encourage you to submit your own.

Not to sound cliche, but I really believe this is the hardest year in some time to predict the Super Bowl participants prior to a game has been played. Here’s a refresher of what we’ve predicted the past few seasons

2014: Colts over Seahawks

2015: Crazy busy at work. Never went on the record from the start. My fault.

2016: Packers over Patriots

2017: Patriots over Packers

Based on this, we can conclude a couple different things.

In all three of those seasons, we’ve gotten one of the two teams correct, although never the winner. (Thankfully not the winner last season 🦅).

We’ve also been relatively safe with our predictions, choosing teams that had gone relatively deep in the playoffs the season prior. Last year’s Eagles are the first team since the 2011 Giants to win the Super Bowl after missing the playoffs the season prior. This rarely happens as teams typically require at least one season of momentum building and getting close in January. Did the Eagles start a new trend of under the radar teams who emerge out of nowhere or was this more of a one-off example?

In the mighty NFC, it might be a one-off example given the number of contenders in the conference who have been here before, and it’s the stark difference between the two conferences that makes predicting this year so much harder.

On paper, the Patriots are the best team in the AFC and favorite because they have the best quarterback and the track record of winning the conference two consecutive years and three of the past four, but you can make a case that the Patriots might be the third or fourth best team if you put them in the NFC.

And the second AFC team? Would you even have them in the playoffs if they were in the NFC? That’s not an insult to all of the AFC teams. There are legitimately some intriguing teams that we’ll give our thoughts on in the next segment. Rather, it speaks to the immense depth of the NFC where nine or more teams could be considered Super Bowl contenders.

If a gun was held to our head, we would pick the Patriots in the AFC. There’s not one obvious team that comes to mind to dethrone them, and Tom Brady’s conference playoff record speaks for itself. Thankfully a gun is not being held to our head, and when you explore a bit deeper, this loos like one of the worst Patriots teams over the past decade. They have a ton of talent to replace on offense, and for the first time under Bill Belichick, they dealt with offseason distractions that are typically controlled.

Let’s categorize the AFC teams into a few different groups

Zero Chance

Jets: Check back in two years with Sam Darnold. They’re headed in the right direction, but the road trip will take time.

Dolphins: A bottom 5 roster in the league. It’s crazy to think they were a playoff team two years ago. No shot

Bills: Great story making the playoffs last year. They won’t do it again.

Browns: LOL

Very Little Chance

Ravens: Joe Flacco should be motivated in what could be his final season as the team’s starting quarterback, but motivation and ability are two different things. I’m not as high on them as others.

Bengals: Two years removed from their last playoff appearance and never won a playoff game under Marvin Lewis in 15 years. Nothing makes me think they’ll start now.

Broncos: Only three years removed from a Super Bowl appearance, but roster is much older, and Case Keenum remains a bit of a mystery to me despite last year’s surprise success.

Intriguing Upside

Titans: Playoff team last year with a coaching staff that should be able to get more out of Marcus Mariota.

Texans: A playoff team as of two years ago with a potential MVP candidate — if healthy — at quarterback.

Raiders: I am higher on them than most. For all of the weird headlines that Jon Gruden has created, he does have a Super Bowl ring, a potential franchise quarterback in Derek Carr, and a roster that won 12 games in 2016.

Popular Choices But Flawed

Chargers: Seem like the darling of the preseason, but four years removed from their most recent playoff appearance and perennial underachievers compared to talent level on the roster.

Chiefs: Good roster. Exciting young quarterback. Andy Reid has lost three consecutive playoff games. Nothing convinces me he can win two or three in a row to reach Atlanta.

Favorites After The Patriots

Jaguars: Loaded defense who gave the Patriots all they could handle last January. Still, their starting quarterback nearly lost his job last August and had pedestrian numbers during the season. As close as he was, can we really expect Blake Bortles to do it again?

Steelers: A loaded offense with an experienced quarterback who probably should have beaten the Patriots last December. Bill Belichick has owned Mike Tomlin in recent years, but they should be in the mix.

Let’s circle back to the Intriguing Upside section. The team I continually go back to is the Texans. They play in a winnable division and emerged from it in both 2015 and 2016 and would have been in the mix last year had Deshaun Watson not gone down with the ACL injury.

I’m a big fan of Bill O’Brien from his days at Penn State and jokingly sent this tweet almost four years ago. (Don’t look at the name of the Eagles coach)

This would be a year delayed, but my crystal ball foresees an Eagles-Texans Super Bowl in Atlanta. Maybe someone will dub it the ACL Bowl. In a matchup of the two best young quarterbacks in the league, DeShaun Watson delivers the Texans its first Super Bowl in franchise history, just as the Eagles did last February.

A quick note on the Eagles. This will of course not be easy. When I remove the midnight green colored glasses, this looks like a treacherous road. No one has won the NFC East in consecutive years since the Eagles did it back in 2004, the conference is absolutely loaded, and they head into the season incredibly banged up, and not just at quarterback.

On the other hand, they return more key contributors than most Super Bowl champions and upgraded the roster in some key areas on top of it. This is of course subjective, but wiped under the rug of nothing to prove throughout the preseason is that they don’t seem complacent to the naked eye and are ready for one more run before Carson Wentz gets paid and a lot of the team changes over.

Eagles-Texans the first Sunday in February. Let’s look at how we’ll get there starting with each division.

(Playoff teams in bold)

AFC East

Patriots: 12–4

Jets: 6–10

Bills: 4–12

Dolphins: 4–12

The easiest division to predict. The Patriots should reach double digit wins and homefield advantage largely due to playing these three teams twice. Out of the other three teams, the Jets are heading in the best direction but still a ways away.

AFC North

Steelers: 11–5

Ravens: 7–9

Bengals: 7–9

Browns: 3–13

Another division that will likely have a consensus winner. I jumped on the Hard Knocks hype train with the Bucs last season. Hue Jackson and the Browns are not fooling me.

AFC South

Texans: 12–4

Jaguars: 10–6

Titans: 9–7

Colts: 7–9

Three playoff teams from the AFC South? You better believe it. This division should have a lot of intrigue. I trust the Texans, but no one would be shocked if you flip-flopped all of these teams.

AFC West

Raiders: 10–6

Chiefs: 9–7

Chargers: 8–8

Broncos: 6–10

This is the most interesting division in the league to me and where I’m making one of my boldest predictions. All of the offseason headlines and distractions aside, Jon Gruden will show that he can still coach, taking an underrated Raiders roster to a division title while the Chargers typically underachieve. That combined with the Chiefs being exciting but losing a lot of close games with a first-year starting quarterback will open the door.

NFC East

Eagles: 12–4

Giants: 8–8

Cowboys: 7–9

Redskins: 6–10

At the onset of the offseason, I would have had the Cowboys in the playoffs as a wildcard team but between the loss of skill position players and injuries to the offensive line, I don’t think they’ll score enough to get there. The Giants surprise people in that they win more games but still feel without true direction as Eli Manning gets another year older and another season removed from his most recent playoff win back in 2011.

NFC North

Packers: 11–5

Vikings: 9–7

Lions: 7–9

Bears: 6–10

Aaron Rodgers is back with a vengeance as the Packers get back to winning ways. The Vikings slightly disappoint in Year 1 of the Kirk Cousins era while the Lions and Bears pull up the rear.

NFC South

Saints: 11–5

Panthers: 10–6

Falcons: 9–7

Bucs: 3–13

Another division where repeating ain’t easy. The Saints find a way behind their high-powered offense while the Panthers also find themselves back in the dance. I’m not as high on the Falcons as others. The Bucs find themselves in contention for the first overall pick as they look for the eventual successor to Jameis Winston.

NFC West

Rams: 12–4

49ers: 10–6

Seahawks: 8–8

Cardinals: 2–14

The Rams live up to the hype (at least through December 😉) and find themselves back in January while the 49ers slide into the final wildcard spot. The Cardinals, following a Sam Bradford injury and Josh Rosen growing pains, are officially on the clock in April.

AFC Playoff Seeds

  1. Patriots
  2. Texans
  3. Steelers
  4. Raiders
  5. Jaguars
  6. Titans

NFC Playoff Seeds

  1. Eagles
  2. Rams
  3. Packers
  4. Saints
  5. Panthers
  6. 49ers

Wildcard Weekend

(3) Steelers over (6) Titans

(4) Raiders over (5) Jaguars

(3) Packers over (6) 49ers

(4) Saints over (5) Panthers

Divisional Playoffs

(4) Raiders over (1) Patriots

(2) Texans over (3) Steelers

(1) Eagles over (4) Saints

(3) Packers) over (2) Rams

AFC Championship Game

(2) Texans over (4) Raiders

NFC Championship Game

(1) Eagles over (3) Packers

Super Bowl

Texans over Eagles

Awards

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Sam Darnold

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Roquan Smith

Comeback Player of the Year: David Johnson

Know someone who wants to make NFL predictions and would enjoy this post? Would mean the world to me if you shared with them. 💚🏈

Drew Balis

Written by

Social/Digital advertising. Philly sports fan. I predicted the Super Bowl would go to overtime 3 days before it happened, and my haters are still mad about it.

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