Australian Lies: BLM protests and COVID19

The dishonesty linking Victoria’s rise in Covid-19 cases and Black Lives Matter protests needs to stop NOW. It’s being perpetrated by media and politicians, and subsequently parroted by the public. The lies divide us at a time we need unity. Here are 2 big lies

The first — that Black Lives Matter Protests caused transmission in Victoria, facilitating the current rise in cases.

Fact — Only four cases are associated with protests. None have yet been causally linked by state/federal authorities. I doubt they are lying. Both levels of government explicitly told people to not attend the protests, and have no reason to cover up any harms caused by it.

In fact, this would be the perfect opportunity for them to say ‘Told you so’. It would make their job easier. But they are sticking to the latest evidence.

Another argument supporting this lie — ‘Maybe the protests DID cause spread that’s not captured through testing’. OK let’s play:

Let’s assume there was spread, and protesters didn’t get tested (which they did — I know because I served them at COVID-19 testing clinics). And because mostly younger protesters will get few or no symptoms, we wouldn’t see it’s impact until much later when they transmit to older and sicker people, right?

This argument serves to address the lack of evidence for the negative impact of protests so far. This argument is currently unfalsifiable — but that’s a weakness of the argument, not a strength. In fact, let’s consider the opposite case.

Let us assume for one second that there was ZERO transmission at the BLM protests. If this were true, what would we expect the data to show today? Zero connected cases. And zero causally linked cases. What data do we have today? Four linked, zero causally linked. It’s pretty damn close.

A better question is this: what data truly WOULD satisfy people, today, that would make them believe that BLM Australia protests didn’t set off this rise in cases in Vic? I’m not saying it’s not possible. I’m saying it’s disingenuous at this point to link them with little to no evidence.

But, did the protests ‘send the wrong message’ causing broader complacency? ‘If 10,000 ppl can congregate, then I should be able to have 20 ppl over’. Although there is data showing that reduction in adherence to social distancing/mobility preceded the protests, I will ignore that in an effort to bolster the opposite argument. Yes, it is possible that the protests were a harmful signal. But can we see the problem is still the attitude and knowledge of people getting complacent?

If so, I’m glad we are attributing accountability to everyone involved, not just the protesters. Interestingly, there is a double standard here at play: the protesters are seen to be irresponsible. But people who ‘got the wrong message’ are seen as hapless idiots obeying cues like the Manchurian Candidate.

These people, who apparently got the wrong message, presumably also saw the widespread use of masks, the largest such display in Australia since COVID-19 began? So is it possible that the protests have a positive effect on awareness too? It’s a weak argument but that’s what it’s like when we speculate in the absence of evidence.

The second lie is that the Victorian government essentially gave the protests a green light. This is ridiculous on many levels. Firstly, both the Chief Health Officer and Premier told the public MULTIPLE times to NOT ATTEND THE PROTESTS. They warned that these gatherings were very high risk, and could set us back months.

People are interpreting the government’s stance as tacit support, because the protests still happened. They should have stopped them at all costs, right?

People forget the anarchic fury of Black Lives Matter riots in USA that catalyzed global protests in the first place. There were both riots and peaceful protests. And the American police made the ingenious decision to respond to a movement against police brutality by responding with… police brutality. Things got much worse. In view of this case study, what should Australian authorities have done?

Should they have used pepper spray? Fire hoses? Arrest thousands of people to hand out fines? What would happen when people refused to show identification? Put them in police cars? What would happen if they resisted?

The atmosphere was positively combustible. What effect would physical enforcement have, not only in terms of propagating a wave of physical unrest, but also the consequent transmission amid the chaos in the crowd? To physically enforce against Black Lives Matter protests would have been a dangerous risk.

Not to mention, there is a double standard regarding protests. 5G/antivax protesters earlier were not shut down. And the medical/health community, who have arguably the most right to be enraged by these protests did not call for them to be shut either. It is because the health community understands the impact of backfire and the benefits of harm minimization.

Regardless of personal ideology and politics, we understand that practicality matters most. Many working in the health sphere also understand the ethical problem with banning protests, even ones we think could be harmful. And no doubt this thought was also considered by our governments.

The kicker to the debate about the rise in COVID-19 cases in Victoria is this: the CHO and premier have said explicitly and repeatedly that it was driven by transmission within and between families and households

So what we have is a plausible, provable explanation from health authorities for the rise in COVID-19.

Instead, disingenuous blame of Black Lives Matter protests continues. It achieves nothing. It divides people, plays off state vs state and the two levels of government. We must move forward, together.