Thanks for sharing this!! The poker metaphor is a good one for sure. We often tend to pay more attention to the data that supports our initial hypothesis and ignore the outliers that don’t give us a nice correlation value. Bias is very difficult to rule out.
Interestingly, the poker example is so appropriate as we ‘bet’ on the results we believe to be true when we make our day-to-day decisions.
For instance, anyone that is pro/anti vaccines, the data tells you something, most likely whichever truth you would rather agree with or hope is true. Then you act on it, you bet on what you think is true. Like any game of poker, eventually all bets are off and your winnings/losses will be rendered in full bloom as the consequences of your betting.
Keep up the great writings!
Shortly after posting this, I came across an article talking about Bill Nye’s change of heart on GMO’s. Science only works if we are willing to accept new information (facts) as we become aware of them.