What the national polls mean
That Trump is at approximately 45% nationwide in the polls is actually not a good thing for him. The poll suggests that while Trump has been able to unite the Republican party around him by becoming its presumptive nominee, he is still not able to attract the critical support of Independents to reach numbers that indicate anything more than a virtual tie with the candidate on the Democratic side who is still in a fractured party.
Statistically, 40% of Americans are solid conservatives who usually votes Republican regardless who the candidate is. Five percent of Republicans have been known to change their minds, though they tend to be more likely to vote with their party than do the same 5% of Democrats who may choose not to vote at all. At the same time, a similar 40% percent of Democrats tends to vote Democrats.
Since Democrats are more of a loose conglomeration of special interest groups, their candidate will always have his or her work cut out for him or her. He or she has to do more in offering something tangible to each of the groups than the Republican candidate does. Older African-Americans respect the fruits of Hillary and Bill Clinton’s labor. They know about the “Americore” plan to help kids pay for college. They still remember the plan to channel kids into the trades or professions appropriate to their backgrounds or aptitude. They remember what President Clinton’s economy did for African-Americans and blue collar workers. But young black voters know very little about this or Clinton’s idea of “school to work” and how it had begun to answer the questions posed by “A Nation at Risk”. The Bush Chaney team came in and put an end to that vision.
Although Trump’s 40%, and even perhaps, some of the wavering 5% of Republicans is already pretty much been polling for the party, Trump has not been able to cut into any of the 10% of the “real” independent voters. How much of that 10% floating between the two parties the candidate is able to capture normally determines who will be president.
Hillary Clinton is still in a statistical tie with Donald Trump even though she does not yet have the benefit of a united party, and hence, the support of large strata of traditional Democratic voters. What she has evidently been able to do is to attract support from within that 10% of independents enough to be able to keep herself into a virtual tie with Trump. This political dynamic is not as much a result of Hillary Clinton’s political astuteness as it is a result of Trump’s political self-mutilation.
Almost invariably, when Donald Trump opens his mouth he lets out a drool of unhealthy stuff that makes some of his would-be supporters sick. In doing so, he is managing to terrify many independents in ways that cause them to seek shelter in the Clinton ideals. Truly, Secretary Clinton’s great worry is not Trump. Clinton’s great worry is in her party — it’s Bernie Sanders.
Bernie has been passing around poison cool-aide to much of the traditional Democratic constituency while leading them down a rabbit hole he claims will lead to a rainbow with a pot of gold. Everyone in America but Bernie and his supporters understands that it is, at this point, mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination. If Bernie continues to tell his supporters this big LIE, and the other lie that the process in the Democrat Party is rigged, the rip he will have made in the fence will be difficult, if not impossible, to mend.
Bernie Sanders has been a big name politician for the pass 46 years. For 45 of those years, until 2015, when he joined the Democratic party and declared his candidacy, he was an Independent, at which time the Democrats had already tacitly acknowledged Hillary as a kind of “incumbent” candidate for the nomination. When he joined the party and announced his candidacy, the polls did not show him to be a viable contender to topple Hillary from her virtual “incumbency”. So, it was not exactly unreasonable for Democratic super delegates to go ahead and sign over to Hillary. Today, the average “Bernieite” will insist that the process for nomination, in the Democratic party is rigged and their argument to support this position is the one Bernie has been making about the way the “Super Delegates” have been doled out to Senator Clinton from the inception of the campaign season.
In 2008, Senator Obama reached the delegate count before Senator Clinton because of the help he got from his pile of Super delegates. As soon as that happened she conceded. At this stage of the game, Hillary will have the total delegate count needed for the nomination on Tuesday. Her count will include super delegates as did Obama in 2008.
Bernie Sanders, who has drawn a lot of his support form special interest groups within the Democrats 40%, as well as from the 5% that could become disaffected if their candidate doesn’t win the nomination, is making all the difference in the national polls between Hillary and Trump. Young blacks, college students of all races, blue collar workers are all parts of the 40% that are not showing up for Hillary Clinton so far. If Bernie can muster enough will and find success in taming the tiger he has been training, the national poll will read Hillary 55% or better to Trump 45% or less. If not, Donald Trump might get to pick the new Juror for the Supreme Court. Someone, not Hillary Clinton, has to go out and say this publicly.
While he was an Independent in Congress, the Democrats gave Sanders committee chair positions because he caucused with them. But he never ceased from bad mouthing the Democratic and the Republican Parties alike. On some occasions, he has come out and put some serious hurting on the Democrats by siding with the Republicans. He has voted against background check and the two week waiting period for firearm purchase. Bernie did his part to help give the NRA a business edge that no other corporation in the United States possess.
He has voted for the NRA sponsored Republican bill to protect gun manufactures from any kind of law suits coming out of mass shootings. He voted against the “Dream Act”, and twice against Obama’s auto bailout. Strangely enough, as an anti-Wall Street democratic socialist, it is surprising that Bernie would vote to protect derivatives from regulations. But he did.
When Bernie ran for the senate in 2007, Obama went to Vermont to campaign for him. But when President Obama started cranking up his own campaign to run for a second term, Sanders went about trying to recruit someone to run against him — the incumbent president. When we say “Bernie Sanders”, we are talking about someone who always bites the hand that feeds him.