France to face enduring political divisions
On 23 April and 7 May, France will hold its two-round presidential elections. The 2017 polls will be a test for the country’s political establishment and its pro-European and economically liberal policies. The rise of radical parties that have substantially challenged the political status quo in place since the 1980s alongside with the high number of strong candidates brought forward deep-rooted political divisions.
The campaign ahead of the presidential elections already highlighted a key failure of the French political class. Following the socio-economic tensions resulting from President Francois Hollande term and the heightened concerns associated with the ongoing elevated terrorist threat, the country is in need of a uniting message. While the majority of political forces called for a rassemblement, party in-fighting, scandals and divisive policies have participated in expanding the already major rifts existing within the French society. This is likely to remain a major element defining the domestic political scene in the coming years.
A fractured political scene
The 2017 elections mark a clear change in the French political structure under the Fifth Republic. For the first time, four contenders are each credited with approximately 20 percent of the votes in opinion polls ahead of the first round of the election. The French system has been used to have two front-runners generally coming from centre-left and centre-right parties. However, the 2017 elections will see far-left (Jean Luc Melenchon) and far-right (Marine Le Pen) candidates obtain a substantial share of the votes. This will increase their parties’ legitimacy and participate in the overall fracture within the French political system. Current indications suggest that the ruling Parti Socialist (PS) is will not be among the top four parties, thus marking a second radical shift in French system and pointing toward the reshaping of the country’s overall political spectrum.
Competing ideologies
Perhaps more than anything else, the 2017 presidential campaign has been defined by a growing clash of competing ideologies. The campaign served to bring at the fore-front of the political stage views strongly opposed to the pro-EU and liberal policies that have been driving France since the 1980s. The nationalist stance of the Front National (FN) and the hard-socialist position of Jean Luc Melenchon have become central within the political debate and now benefit from a level of an unprecedented level of legitimacy. While Marine Le Pen or Jean Luc Melenchon will almost certainly not win the election, their political agendas will almost certainly continue to challenge the ruling parties and offer a major ideological base for an electorate disenfranchised with the French political establishment.
Socio-economic reforms will face major obstacles
An immediate effect of these fractures within the French political system will materialise at any attempt to reform the national economy and public service. Centre-right candidate Francois Fillon and centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron are the political figures most likely to win the election. Both candidates’ political platforms are based on substantial reforms of the French labour market as well as a review of public expenditures. Any effort to conduct major socio-economic reforms in a country where close to 40 percent of the electorate is forecast to vote for anti-EU and anti-liberal parties will be met with strong opposition. Such reforms may pass the parliamentary approval. However, there is a realistic possibility that the next French administration will be met with the same kind of violent protests as those that occurred between February and July 2016 in response to President Hollande’s labour market reform.
Riccardo Dugulin is a Senior Analyst and Head of the Europe desk at Drum Cussac, a British business risk management firm specialised in security threats. Riccardo is also a regular contributor on Global Risk Insights, an online-based political risk publication
