The Real Threat to the NFL that Nobody Seems to be Considering

NFL players have always lived hard lives on the field, but in recent years, fans and current players have become more concerned with the tremendous challenges confronting players long after their playing days are over. In an effort to increase both short- and long-term player safety, the league has embarked on a series of initiatives including outreach to youth leagues, improved helmet design, stricter guidelines for tackling, and harsher penalties for those that fail to adhere to those new guidelines. But the league’s efforts may not be enough to convince current players that a career in the NFL is worthwhile, a fact made obvious by the retirement announcements of two 49er players: 30-year old star linebacker Patrick Willis and up-and-coming 24-year old linebacker Chris Borland.

These decisions, particularly Willis’, provide an interesting glimpse into the mindset of today’s well-compensated, better-informed, and long-term focused players. In year’s past, players were not nearly as aware of the long-term consequences of playing this most brutal of sports. Many made good money, but their playing careers were short and post-football careers offered no financial guarantees. Still others made exceptional money, but often burned through it in epic, well-documented fashion, leaving themselves few options but to trade their deteriorating bodies for the promise of a few more dollars.

Borland’s decision was intriguing because it was so clearly driven by the recent information that has come to light about the long-term effects of concussions. Borland is the case that many NFL fans, supporters, and analysts illogically cite as the biggest threat to the NFL- the player that decides not to step on the field in the interest of preserving his health. Let’s slow down there. Borland made a decision that few others have shown a willingness to make, and there will always be plenty of players that will opt to assume the risks of playing football in exchange for the promise of a hefty paycheck. Borland is walking away from potential riches, practically before he even got a taste of the money that seemed to await him. It is an interesting decision that many commend him for, and it was clearly the right decision for Borland, as he claims not to have had a second thought or doubt about his retirement decision. But let’s call this what it was: in the end, Chris Borland is simply choosing another job that provides him with the opportunity to preserve his health, but potentially comes with much less of a financial upside. I don’t know how many young men are willing to make that same decision.

Willis, however, is the more compelling case study, especially as we consider the future implications for the NFL. Why? Because Patrick Willis’ decision comes at a point in time in which he has already received a large portion of his potential earnings as a football player, but still has plenty of promising snaps ahead and still represents a money-making asset to the league and his team. In many ways, Willis’ decision represents the one path by which an athlete, so often resentful about being exploited by owners and organizations, can “beat the system”. He has received the bulk of his money, maintained his health (for the most part, we will assume), and no longer has to endure the punishment of a game that has destroyed some of our most talented athletes and toughest men. On top of that, while he has realized the majority of his earning potential from of the league and team ownership, a large portion of what they have left to get from Willis has not been delivered. This could serve as one last parting shot at a group of entitled people that have always been more than willing to sacrifice the health and well-being of others for their own gain.

Borland’s example is an extreme case- a player basically deciding not to play football. If every player followed Borland’s example, there would be no league. This will not happen. Willis’ decision though, sets a far less extreme example, and threatens to instead significantly (and much more plausibly) shorten the playing careers of the biggest superstars in the sport. If every player were to follow in Willis’ footsteps, there would still be an NFL, but the quality of the league would be challenged by the extreme turnover of its superstars and the constant need to back-fill these players. This is a league of superstars, not utility players, and the biggest threat to the league is the creation of a system that incentivizes superstars to cut their playing careers short. Perhaps this is what so many are failing to see right now, even as they panic about the choice Chris Borland represents and how many may follow in his footsteps.

The fact is, we pay our superstar athletes absurd amounts of money, and in doing so, we have opened a door for the smartest of them to walk away from the games that destroy their bodies, still rich and having gotten the better of the system. Historically, as players have spent their earnings as fast as they receive them, these stars have been forced to keep playing. But if players start to be more financially responsible, they won’t need to continue to subject themselves to the daily pounding.

Let’s look at the line of thinking that Patrick Willis, or some other superstar, could employ. Upon being drafted into the league after a successful college career, the player is paid very well. Maybe that player gets a good financial advisor, invests the lion’s share of the money wisely, and lives a very conservative lifestyle (and doesn’t go to team dinners and pick up the five-digit tabs for the veterans). After a couple years of solid or exceptional performance, the player signs a rich contract, possibly with a large portion of the money guaranteed or paid up-front. The player plays for two to four years under this contract and maybe even picks up some good money on the side from endorsements. At this point, the athlete could easily say to himself, “You know what? I’ve now made 45 million dollars or so, maybe $25 million after taxes. That’s enough for me to live the rest of my life very comfortably. I’m 29 years old, can still get a regular job to supplement the nest egg I’ve built, and can live off that and the proceeds from my investments.” With that, the player realizes it’s just not worth the potential serious injury or brain damage in return for a slightly more lavish lifestyle, and before we know it, a superstar has retired before he has even turned 30.

Whether we care to admit it or not, sports leagues and team owners have always taken advantage of athletes, just as the music business has done the same with musicians and countless other industries have done to employees. Sure, the athletes have signed up willingly for this deal, and yes, they are very well-compensated along the way, but whereas historically salaries were not rich enough to provide the “walk-away” option to athletes, the astronomical money being thrown at players today does open that door, if only for the small segment of athletes that are superstars and exhibit informed spending decisions.

The threat to the NFL is not just “concussions” or “debilitating injuries” that will torture the bodies of its athletes in the future. The NFL is a business. An industry. And as such, it must be analyzed as one. Industries are rarely threatened by a single event or issue. Instead, the real threats are the result of shifting dynamics. For the NFL, ballooning salaries, guaranteed payouts, and the growing body of evidence about the long-term effects of concussions and other serious injuries have certainly provided an environment that will allow players, particularly superstars, to “beat the system”. The question now, is will players shift their thinking and make such decisions.

If they do, the NFL could actually have a threat it needs to worry about.

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