The evolution of technology companies — a paradigm shift.
This article is written by our economist. I warn you, reading is not easy!
The sharp decline of indicators of one of the leading Internet companies, in our point of view, is incomparable with the indicators that they did not achieve in accordance with the financial reporting of the companies.
Forecasted Facebook revenue for the second quarter of 2018 was $ 13.36 billion, as the result, the amount reached $ 13.23 billion, “did not collect “ additional 0.9%. Also, the predictions about active users of the social network were wrong. According to the plan it was going to attract 2.25 billion of users, but, in fact, there was 2.23 billion of them. The shortage of the indicator is quite small, approximately 1%. After all, both the first and second deviations are very insignificant and taking into consideration achieved before indicators, they are almost unnoticeable at all. The revenue of Facebook went down compared to the planned one, but with respect to proper value for the past period has increased and amounted + 42%!
Despite such minor deviations of predictions, the shock that occurred with the social network is significant: Facebook’s capitalization has declined by almost 25%, and the founder of the social network Mark Zuckerberg “lost” $ 17 billion.
Also, in our point of view, the drop of Twitter is inconsistent with the failure of its plans: a 19% drop of quotations! (the largest since October 2016) with a decrease of the average monthly audience by 1 million people, which is only 0.3%, while compared to last year, this indicator is higher by 3% !!
Problems for Facebook began with the statements of analysts. The press came out with reports of “attacks on reputation”, “privacy guaranteed”, “data theft”, “political bias”, and other scandals. The issue of the vulnerability of audit reports has come out again, as in published recently by us scandal with the possible bankruptcy of “Tether” (the company with a market capitalization of $ 2.7 billion. Auditors confirmed the volume of the company’s deposits only on a specific date).
However, we believe that all these are only the provocative act, we all know how the social mechanism can push banks to collapse on the basis of a couple of rumors about stopped transfers, the fundamental problems are much deeper. Even without reputational “arrows”, fired towards the Facebook, it became clear that it can no longer grow at the same pace.
The growing base of the social network affected not only by the demographic situation and the opening of new markets but also by the accusation of excessive politicization (not without reason), the participation in dissatisfaction with social regimes in certain countries lead to market segmentation (China has closed its market for Facebook).
But after all, what did the founders of these companies lose in reality?
And how to measure events which did not take place?
We believe that the company and its owners did not lose $ 17 billion. They just have lost records of the journal entry and the book of record, the “zeros” in computers. No reasonable investor would buy such company for such amount of money or even a part of the company’s formation packages for their current value. Moreover, having decided to sell their companies, Zuckerberg or Bill Gates will immediately bring down the stock value to a small amount. As soon as the significant parcel of shares of such companies is put up for sale, the impairment of the value of the companies will demonstrate the limit of more or less fair price.
Here we treat the problem of the basic concepts that form the basis of the modern structure of the stock market and the problems of its revaluation, as well as the re-evaluation of technology companies in general.
The fall was provoked, rather not by the absolute measure of the reports, but by the unfulfilled expectations of investors, who felt the next wave of the dot-com crash.
The classic stock market has been vulnerable to various news, “leaks”, and changes of indicators, reflected by traditional financial reports long ago.
The market of modern social networks and its assessment, traditionally measured by the standard quantity index inherent to the post-industrial economy, but not its new directions (experience economy, the knowledge-driven economy, nonmaterial social effects). At the present moment, the evaluation of the project based on the growth of a number of users, the “monetization” of these users, some kind of an “average bill” for one person and all these are near to overindulgence, an increase of an audience and purchase of “ likes”. This approach stimulates the overindulgence and creation of “bubbles” in a corporate appraisal. “Bubbles” in this area did not disappear anywhere, they have blended into various forms and reports, but thereon, did not turn the company’s data into something real.
So, does it make sense to invest trillions of dollars in the Internet infrastructure, if it does not lead to the expected political and economic results ?!
Further investment of trillions of dollars in the Internet infrastructure is meaningless if it does not lead to the expected economic or political results. Without a mechanical audience gain, there will be no serious investments towards which are directed the current projects in this field. There is a need for new forms of people unification with more qualified characteristics or tendencies.
The main headache for investors is the doomed recognition of that the modern technology companies are at the end of the resources for the further growth.
The Internet has reached the growth limit in the structure and forms in which it existed and developed in recent years.
We think that others will string along with Facebook now.
Bitcoin growth and the transition to Web 3.0
Mildly speaking, the news from the crypto-currency market is more positive. Bitcoin continues to take a lead from the fall. In a month, the Bitcoin rate got stronger at 42% and the value of the first cryptocurrency exceeded $ 8.5 thousand.
Famous cryptocurrency trader Brian Kelly considers one of three factors of Bitcoin’s powerful revanche in the next fact: the technological revolution has approached its next phase — Web 3.0.
According to Kelly, being the important factors modern institutions connect existing ecosystems with “new Internet”, rely on crypto-currencies and the new technology “will become long-awaited additions to their portfolios”, filling the gaps in the existing mechanisms of institutions.
Moreover, he believes that any information has value and therefore cryptocurrency with inherent to it flexibility and openness can become an instrument for its measuring. Kelly refers to Web 3.0 as to “new Internet” or “improved Internet” provided that currently there is no any single or universally agreed definition of Web 3.0. Further, he concludes that for the same reason, the share of interest among institutional investors has increased, in fact, what we have predicted long ago and what we stated earlier.
How do we understand it?
The concept of Web 3.0 was first formulated by the boss of Netscape.com Jason Calacanis in continuation of the Web 2.0 concept made by Tim O’Reilly. O’Reilly believed that Web 2.0 acts as a purely technological platform, and the Web 3.0 in its turn will allow to create high-quality content and services on the basis of professional efforts. He also proposed to define the Web 3.0 as “the interaction between the Internet and the physical world” and criticized the identification of the semantic web and the concept of Web 3.0.
Calacanis believed that Web 2.0 has the basis for the rapid and almost free use of a huge number of powerful Internet services with high consumer qualities. Such use has prompted the emergence of a huge amount of monotonous resources, which led to a devaluation of most of them (by the way, isn’t it the one of reasons for the current collapse of the leaders of this market — Facebook and Twitter?). The new idea is about an appearance of a new platform based on the Web 2.0. The platform is not so much technological as sociocultural, intended for the use of professionals for the creation of useful, interesting and high-quality content.
In other words, we can assume that the Web 1.0 era was the time of the creation of a “global library”, i.e. for the digitizing the knowledges from books. Web 2.0 took place within the norms signs of social media channels and search engines, such as Facebook, Twitter and Google. These systems have created a kind of “global publishing” for Internet users. Web 3.0 is already a “global database”, a “new Internet” for numerous services and communities, let us call it an improved version of the past, where it is possible to effectively use data in various fields and take care not of only the notorious “monetization”.
Let us consider as an example of trend transformation from Web 2.0 to Web 3.0 Calacanis, the German section of Wikipedia, which imposes restrictions on editing articles by inexperienced participants. After the filling sufficient content the professional editors can review it. As a result, we get serious, verified content, with a “live” fixup, which hardly could provide with the old encyclopaedias. Perhaps investors who launched this project would like to have a slightly different audience, but the quality of the content remains high, interesting and at the same time sector-spesific, flexible and meaningful.
Following on from these principles, we have launched the crowdfounding platform called ScientificCoin.
Instead of clicks and purchased likes, professionals appear to replace them, but not without using an evalulation of the wide audience, with a clear understanding of the effect that decision adopted in cificient scale may be wrong.
ScientificCoin — creating the future in science
ScientificCoin is a crowdfunding platform, which is based on a blockchain technology, the main purpose of which is the financial support of scientific projects.
Under the conditions of modern economy, without having the skills of successful businessmen it is hard to promote technologies for scientists. As envisioned by the founders of ScientificCoin platform, the developer can find an investor without the costs for marketing and intermediary services.
ScientificCoin allows us to evaluate new projects and their prospects by the means of a hybrid way of evaluating projects, placed on the platform: the synthesis of a mathematical algorithm and a decentralized expert evaluation.
Such a combination will radically transform a multi-stage, often bureaucratic, and even corrupted evaluation system which already have existing supporting funds for scientific projects in many countries. In addition, each evaluation method places a buffer and make compensation for disadvantages of each other.
Achieving reliable expert evaluation of projects without subjectiveness and manipulations requires special efforts, in contrast to mathematical analysis, in which everything is structured and transparent. In our case, the expert assessment is represented by the “wisdom of the crowd”, which is a fundamentaly differs it from the principles of evaluation of a usual venture fund.
Arrow’s theorem (also known as the Arrow’s paradox) — the theorem “on the impossibility of democratization” as a “collective choice, otherwise is called” the inevitability theory “. The bottom line of the theorem lies in an ordinal approach there is no method for combining individual preferences for three or more alternatives that would satisfy some fairly just conditions and always give a logically consistent result.
It is worth to quote as saying one of the most outstanding thinkers in the world, Nassim Taleb (Nassim Taleb), a Lebanese mathematician and trader, who believes that adequate decisions are made only by people, who bear personal risk for their decisions. At the same time, bureaucrats act in the interests of career aspisartions, while politicians simulate.
Taleb can see the danger in the fact that the minds of intellectuals are captured by ideas that have not been tested by reality, and in this sense people “whose profession is directly connected with the real world” (even “rednecks”) are often “the best experts”. In his opinion, modern media “create a situation in which people live in two different worlds.” “The mischief of it in that intellectual monoculture now has formed among Western journalists”.
The ScientificCoin Expert Council (consisting of holders of SNCOIN) will break out the visious cycle of long-held assumptions of skeptics and will involve fresh opinions in the decision-making process from around the world. To use the platform, invest, view and evaluate projects, it is necessary to have one or more SNcoins.
The motivation system for SNCOIN holders is our most important asset, namely:
1. Mining based on the technology of Proof-of-work \ research;
2. Reward of experts for the evaluation of projects;
3. Passive income of the SNCOIN holder, expressed in interest accrual from each scientific project, which created a smart contract based on the platform and successfully collected funds.
After the evaluation stage made by a mathematical algorithm, the projects pass to an expert evaluation, which completes an intial and soulless mathematical analysis, which is the groundwork. Based on subjective judgments it will be impossible to radically change the main indicators of the project even if wished by the experts generally. Nevertheless, the human scientific assesment will complement the figures with a vogorouse debates and comments accessible to all.
Expert evaluation implies a manual verification of projects according to the characteristics set by the algorithm. Valuated amount of each evaluation index will demonstrate the overall rating of the project. Each evaluation index will have a rating scale, in terms of which it was evaluated by the mathematical algorithm. In a case when the user does not agree with the automatically generated evaluation, he\she is entitled to change the evaluation index and forecast in his\her own way. Thus, the main features of the platform — flexibility, decentralization, transparency, on-line communications and modern mathematical tools technique conceptually correspond to the next generation of the network buildout — Web 4.0 or Neuronet.
(Neuronet (from English. NeuroNet, NeuroWeb, Brainet) or Web 4.0 is one of the planned stages of the World Wide Web development in which the interaction of participants (people, artificial intellectual agents) will be carried out on the principles of neural communications. 2030–2040).
Reflection of the future economy
The most urgent point for modern hypers is that how to “monetize” the next startup online. ScientificCoin considers this approach common and pointless. ScientificCoin has built a much more elegant and fair system of multiplication of the project cost and will compete with those companies which are focused expeptionally on the money making or the generation of services aimed primarily at profit. One of the main tasks of the created platform is the search for scientific co-authors and communications of various groups of scientists during the implementation of start-ups, but the main core of the platform is much broader.
Based on deeper concepts, this platform offers an attractive alternative to the endless and meaningless writing of topics, chats, spam and advertising.
Support of socially significant projects leads directly to a real increase and improvement of the quality of human and social capital, which is certainly less measurable in the material meaning, but at the same time not less significant. Thus, the system gives a jump start to users towards responsible and thoughtful approach when working with projects.
Such approach fully corresponds to the paradigms of modern “economies” — the “knowledge- driven economy, experience economy and the economy of perception.” Each expert will be rewarded with SNCOIN tokens for the contribution in evaluation of projects. The calculation of reward will be positively associated to the number of experts involved in the network and interrelation with the final evaluation of the project. The closer the expert evaluation to the final result, more munificient the reward. Thereafter, with complete disagreement with the final results, the amount of compensation possibly goes negative. Thus, the system motivates users to take a responsible and thoughtful steps while working with projects.
“Go out second — come first” (Sun-Tzu, “The Art of War”)
The arrival of cryptocurrencies and the ideology of new projects, connected or based on this technology, suggesting the idea of social breakthroughs of Nobel laureates Muhammad Yunus (Bangladesh) and Amartya Sen (the experts from non- Western world).
Muhammad Yunus is a banker from Bangladesh, a Nobel laureate for the efforts in creation of economic and social development from below. He first has founded microfinance and microlending for all segments of the population. Western scientists criticized him for the “neoliberal fairytale.”
However, the practice proved the success of Muhammad’s approach, moreover, there is a lot of innovations which are stimulated by this sphere at present: fast scoring system, robotic technologies for the disbursement of loans and credit reimbursement, monitoring of borrowers, risk evaluation for lending portfollios, system of momentary and convenient service and a lot more.
Amartya Sen is an Indian economist who has made a significant contribution to the drafting of the conceptual framework of the annual UN reports on human development and the human development index (HDI). He is Alfred Nobel memorial prize holder in Economics of 1998 “for the contribution to the welafear economics”.
Welfare economics is a subdicipline of modern economic science that moves microeconomic approaches and methods for assessing economic well-being, prosperity, welfare to a significant extent and with respect to provision of a general balance in economy between economic efficiency and the final distribution of benefits.
An important task of the welfare economics is the establishment of ethical criteria due to which it is possible to assess the desirable and proper ones. These criteria are rather subjective, informal; their truth or falsity cannot be established with mathematical precision. However, relying on logic and experience-based knowledges it is possible to develop appropriate ethical criteria and provide an “acceptable level” of public consent. Here it is possible to open a potential for a wide application of new mathematical methods in the economy.
The topic of the recently announced ICO, which are becoming more and more thorough, affects the development of mathematical models that use an instrument of fuzzy logics, fuzzy sets, and etc., but for other, applied purposes — for example, establishing accurate prices at any time based on market data on insurance against falling of rates of the basic cryptocurrencies.
But, in whole, we expect the answer to the main question from new technological projects — What is really needed for the humanity and which efforts should be made to improve and change both primary human needs as well as the improvement of social processes and a new individual?
Lead economist Scientificcoin Ahedgefund Sagl Switzerland
Phd in Economics Yury Komarov