In 2010 a lot of people, whose politics are of the centre ground, moved from Labour to the Liberal Democrats after the Iraq war. People voted for Nick because they hated the role Labour had played in the Iraq war, but they got Cameron by accident. In coalition they may have helped pull the Tory’s closer to the centre in the last 5 years, but they failed to make clear how and when. They became the silent, silent partner and were guilty by association. This time around Lib Dem campaigned on a basis that they would go into another coalition, and people weren’t going to make the same mistake again.

Labour, who have floundered in opposition for most of the last 5 years and only really got a coherent proposition together in the last 5 weeks, put forward a manifesto left of centre. For many it was the only viable option to avoid another 5 years of Conservative rule, so they got behind it. But for most it was a little too far left and was compounded by fears of a coalition (informal, if not formal) with the SNP dragging it even further to the left. Many in Labour admit this now — they need to seriously examine their policy strategy, to create something that is consistent, coherent and of course electable. What they had on offer this time was squarely rejected by the electorate. London’s red centre almost highlights the echo chamber in which Miliband’s policy was forged. But it wasn’t one recognised by the party’s traditional base outside of London.

The Conservatives did a “good” job of keeping their messaging simple and electable. Vote Labour get SNP. Vote UKIP get some loons and no referendum on Europe. Vote Conservative get jobs and a good economy. Sure you’d get a bunch of other stuff too that’s unpalatable if you thought about it too hard, but the core Tory voter is one who is concerned with number 1 first, and the people who actually vote have probably felt, personally, better off in the last 5 years as the economy recovers; whether the Conservatives were actually responsible for the improved economy or whether it just happened on their watch is another story. But it did happen on their watch.

At the same time, UKIP were vigorously waving their arms on the right and plenty of people of the centre/centre-right didn’t want them to get a foothold. Their best form of defence was to vote Conservative.

All of this played out in “the biggest and most important election in a generation” in which the turnout was only 1% higher than 2010. Ergo — not enough people actually gave a shit. Still.