Looking at the slim chances of the Democrats taking back the Senate and House
While it is said that Democrats win when turnout is high by many, I am predicting that Democrat voter turnout this election will be lower than 2008 and 2012. This could be a disaster for the left considering who is winning the nomination on both sides.
Hillary Clinton is a flawed candidate; and everyone knows this (apparently everyone who is not the DNC). Barack Obama broke record turnouts in primaries and elections with Democrats in 2008 and even the 2012 Election, but Hillary is no Obama. Obama was young and cool for the time, and since he was virtually unkown prior to his campaign, there was no scandal or controversy surrounding him. Clinton has been in the public eye for many years now, and so have many of her controversies. While she is well-liked by members of her party, according to an ABC poll only 36 percent of Democrats believe she is the most honest and trustworthy; a very scary number.
Since Hillary Clinton does not have the same campaign enthusiasm that Obama had back in 2008, it seems that she will make less people who normally do not vote go to the polls in November. Her favorability rating amongst independent voters is low as well which will fail to bring new people from other parties to support her.
As of now, it seems Trump will be the Republican nominee; and you can not deny the fact that his supporters are the most cult-like supporters out of anyone running. He also has shattered voter turnout in primaries, bringing Democrats across the aisle and also independents. This fact can be a fatal blow to the Democrats, since their party insiders are “secretely” advocating for Clinton in the White House, despite her low polling numbers.
Speaking of low polling numbers, despite Hillary’s dominant lead on the primary side, her real challenge is the general election. Polls are indicating Sanders wins against Republicans by larger margins than Hillary because of his more enthusiastic support. Enthusiastic support leads to more voter turnout; more Democratic voter turnout calls for more Democrats being voted in.
If Hillary Clinton becomes the nominee (which seems to be the way things are going) I think it is a safe bet to say the Republicans will maintain a dominant hold on the House and Senate. They may lose some seats, but in general there will be no major shifts.