Why the Republicans have no chance at winning the White House in 2016

In both 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama dominated the electoral college and won the popular vote by large margins. This election cycle, the excitement is on the Republican side; Donald Trump has been generating huge turnout for the party, whether these voters are voting for him or not. Trump argues that he can win the election because he wins independent voters and can win states Democrats normally win because of his great turnout; however signs seem to indicate that his argument is not valid.

Recent polls done by Y2 Analytics are suggesting that Ted Cruz has a dominant hold over the Utah Caucus that is occurring Tuesday, March 22. This is one of the only primary/caucus states that Trump is in last place in. Not only is his support dismal in this state; but it is pathetic. Utah, a state that hasn’t gone blue in over five decades would go blue this time around with Hillary Clinton as the nominee by a narrow margin, and with Bernie Sanders carrying the state by double digits. While Trump dominates the South, it seems that other deep red states seem to be slipping away. Republicans struggle to win elections with the help of red states, so if they start losing states instead of keeping onto them, Republicans are doomed.

Trump also says he can win New York. While it is unclear what makes Trump believe this considering New York is a deep blue state, data shows that Trump cannot do so. Recent polling done by Emerson suggests that both Sanders and Clinton would beat Trump in his home state of New York, nearly by 20 points, completely invalidating Trump’s theory.

Another category of analysis that is necessary in seeing if Trump can win against Hillary is swing states. Hillary is polling in Florida 8 points ahead of Trump, giving 29 electoral votes to the Democrats, the most out of any swing state. Hillary also can win some Southeastern states such as Virginia and North Carolina; states that are crucial for Republicans to win the White House.

If Trump continues to do what he is doing, he has no path to the White House; nor does the GOP.