The Threat to Science No One Talks About
Joe Brewer
95696

Seems like quite a panic for a prediction model that runs on such a small amount of data. I am not a scientist but I’ve always had an eye for math, statistics and the like. I think it’s best said in the book by Michael Lewis, The Undoing Project, where Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman are talking about small number prediction models vs. large number. It’s around chapter 3/4 if you’re ever interested.

Point being if you flip a coin 10 times, 7/10 you’ll get one side and the next series of 10 flips you could get 3/10. But you flip that same coin a thousand times your results set becomes more predictable and less biased, more in the tune of 50/50 result set, that is 50% on one side and 50% on the other. You see the bigger the test case, the less amount of error and higher amount of predictability.

WE the people of this current planet are comparing Global warming to such a small amount of data how can anyone say they are right or wrong. These calculations are based on what 200/300 years of data but to our knowledge the Earth has been around for 1000’s of years and much of it unknown.

Are we experiencing a difference in weather and a lot of change in the environment of course. The population is growing every day and therefore ever changing. I think it’s a bit early to be causing a world wide panic. We as people evolve, it’s how we’ve gotten to where we are today. Putting our minds together and working towards fixing a problem. Causing panic doesn’t fix anything, it embed’s fear.

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