2017 NBA Draft Review
It has come and gone. I’m actually surprised by the lack of surprises in the draft. Players went largely in the order I thought they would despite there being a TON of trades.
So how did we do?
Our overall draft grade I’d give us just a C -. I really like the Isaac pick for all the reasons I’ve already stated and what the the pundits have said. He’s long, athletic, and has the ability to play multiple positions. He has a descent jump shot that will only get better and I think he can become our starting SF in a very short time. I view Isaac as the easy answer to a lot of the questions our team had, while guys like Smith and Markkanan only brought new questions. I easily give us an A for that pick. After that is where I think we really screwed up the night.
The number 10 pick was available, I knew SAC didn’t want it and they ended up trading it. Portland got it for the 15th and 20th picks. We’ll never know if we made a real run at it but a deal centered around Evan, 25, 33, and 35 seems just as competitive as those two picks. With high upside guys like Collins, Monk, and Mitchell still on the board it sucks we couldn’t find a way to sneak back into that spot to snag one of them. Maybe we tried and it simply didn’t work out, but regardless, I view it as a missed opportunity.
The next blunder of the night is trading away the 25th pick. Weltman said they thought the draft had leveled off and value in the pick had gone away. I disagree, but even at that, the return we got for it seemed extremely low. We got a 2020 1st pick and 2020 2nd round pick. The 1st round pick is protected 1–20 in 2020, ’21, and ’22 and if it doesn’t convey it converts to a 2nd round pick in ’22. So sometimes a pick tomorrow is better than a pick today if you want to preserve cap or simply don’t like anyone where you’re picking……but this isn’t a pick tomorrow….this is a pick way down the line in the future. The protection on the pick doesn’t bother me, but the time frame does. If you want to make that trade, you find a way to get a ’18 or ’19 pick and if you can’t find that, just a select a player. The cap ramification of a 25th pick are low. We have salary cap restraints as it stands already and could have used him to build depth to our roster. Guys like Swanigan, Hart, Jackson, Semi, Bell, and Evans were all on the board. You take a flyer on one of them. I give us a D on the move.
We took Wesley Iwundu at 33. I really can’t critique this pick. I did absolutely zero scouting on him. Briefly looking him over, he’s a long, athletic, 4 year senior, small forward. He’s a marginal offensive player but brings it on defense. So that’s the same bought as some of the other players I wanted like Semi, Hart, and Bell. So I don’t want judge to much on the pick until he’s given a full chance at summer league. It seems like he’s a calculated risk on a player that could be an immediate impact player because of his experience. Overall, I like the pick B.
We again felt the need to trade away a low risk pick at 35. I understand not wanting to bring in 4 rookies, I personally didn’t have those reservations, but I get it…..but bringing in 3, two of which are 2nd round picks is not a crazy idea for a team trying to build out depth. With Semi, Bell, Evans, and even Rabb (the guy taken in the spot) on the board, I don’t understand the reasoning to trade the pick for simply another future 2nd round pick. The beauty of 2nd round picks is low level of financial commitment and after also knowing we would move the 25th pick, why not take two shots in the dark in the 2nd round. Trading away two picks is a head scratcher to me. I give us another D for missed opportunity.
So we may have made a complete slam dunk in Isaac. He’s got dominant player potential. But I disagree with our lack of attempt to diamond mine the end of the first and beginning of the 2nd rounds. The risk was low, the upside was high and we baulked at the possibility as well as miss out on the opportunity to use those picks to get a singular meaningful asset in the near future.
How did everyone else do?
There are always some big winners on draft night. Sadly, the Magic weren’t one of them. The easy answer is the 76ers…they got the best player in the draft but I think you have to give it to MIN. Getting Jimmy Butler was huge and they really didn’t give up that much. Levine, Dunn, and the #7 pick seems like such low return for Butler & 16th pick. Dunn struggled last year and Levine will be coming off of an ACL injury….and Markkanen is good but not a corner stone piece. Makes me wonder if AG/Mario/#6 could have gotten Jimmy. My only minor critique is who MIN took at 16. I would have take OG or Giles. You’re already playing with house money. Why not take a flyer on one of them who were thought as possible top 10 picks that are coming back from injury.
My runner up goes to SAC. They got their PG in Fox, and turned the #10 into Giles and Justin Jackson. I personally would have taken OG over Jackson, but they did a great job of taking talent but also filling holes in their lineup. They took a flyer on Mason III in the 2nd round who was the NCAA player of the year, a good low risk, high reward selection.
My biggest loser would be the Cavs. They desperately need youth on their roster and they baulked at the chance to buy into the second round to get one. The warriors paid $3.5 million to select Bell ( a guy the magic passed on 3 times). So even the champs knew the value in keeping a young fresh roster for a team that will be Cap strapped.
My second biggest loser would easily be Chicago. You trade your super star away and get .75 cents on the dollar. Markkanen could turn into Dirk and Dunn could figure it out, but they risked a bunch on unknowns.
What’s next?
Free agency begins July 1st with actually signing starting on the 6th. The cap actually came back lower than expected because of some lost revenue from the lack of playoff games. So it will sit at $99 million (originally thought to be $101). The Magic are currently capped out. We can muster up about $11-$14 in room if we release our cap hold on Jeff Green (highly likely) and Jodie Meeks as well as release CJ Watson who has just a $1mil guarantee on his contract. That doesn’t leave us will a ton of room to make a big splash. I think a guy like Patrick Patterson could be an obvious tarted because of his ability to shoot and the familiarity Weltman has with him. Other guys in our price range could be PJ Tucker, Andre Roberson, Shaun Livingston, Jonathan Simmons, and Shabbazz Muhamed. No one fancy, all bench fillers.
Trades are also very much in play. We still have no way to gauge our level of commitment to anyone on our roster, so I think any and all could be on the block. We won’t be in the running for big names like Porzingis or Paul George but 2nd tier talent could be obtained for the right package.
We may be quiet, but the rest of the league definitely won’t be. PG still needs to get sorted out. CP3 could easily be on the move, Griffin could end up in Boston or Miami, same goes for Gordon Hayward. The Rockets are desperately trying to upgrade their team and now Minnesota is a bonafide player.
