MASTERING CHANGE WITH STRATEGIC FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION (SFI)
Change is a constant in life, but for many of us, it often feels overwhelming and difficult to manage. The signs of this are all around us: increased homelessness, reliance on food banks, mass migration, environmental disasters, shifting work patterns, and changing values. These challenges can cause anxiety even in the most balanced individuals, and as a leader, you not only have to manage your own anxiety but also that of your team.
In the past, there were clear boundaries between our personal and professional lives. However, since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, those boundaries seem to have dissolved. How can we focus, serve, and produce when we are struggling to manage our own lives?
According to William Bridges’ Transitions Model, change refers to external events happening to us, while transitions represent the internal process we go through to adapt to change. Both change and transitions occur on their own timelines. While change can happen rapidly, the emotional and psychological processing of that change may take more time.
Personally, I have come to view change in a similar way as William Bridges’ model, differentiating between environmental change (external events that happen to us) and innovation (controlled or instigated change).
Welcoming Strategic Foresight
In 2012, I completed a Master of Design program in Strategic Foresight and Innovation at OCAD University in Toronto, Canada. Prior to entering this program, I had a good understanding of Innovation, but Strategic Foresight was a completely new concept for me.
Strategic Foresight is the practice of envisioning possible futures by studying existing behaviors, estimating their impact, and projecting forward. It combines analysis and imagination to help organizations make sense of the world and prepare for the future.
Strategic Foresight involves two main activities: trend research and analysis, and scenario building and planning. From the perspective of external change, these activities uncover future opportunities for innovation and help address and mitigate potential risks.
Inspired by my graduate studies, I define trends as common observable behaviors, while scenarios are projections of what might happen if these behaviors continue. Trends have lifespans, growing and shrinking in popularity and intensity.
Trend research involves a comprehensive literature review, encompassing social media, newsletters, blog posts, and interviews with knowledgeable experts. The goal is to identify signals: patterns of behavior that are not short-lived. Multiple sources are consulted to verify the existence of trends and minimize observer or reporter biases. Afterward, the trend is analyzed. Initially, I attempt to frame the trend from various perspectives, followed by studying its current impact and potential implications if it continues. By extrapolating on these ideas, I develop scenarios that offer insights into possible future outcomes, enabling clients to plan accordingly.
Practicing Strategic Foresight
When it comes to transitions (the internal process during change), I have observed that Strategic Foresight activities help make sense of the world. When combined with strategic planning, they can alleviate anxiety.
Here are a few examples:
In 2014, I led the Innovation Lab at Numeris, a Canadian audience-measurement firm. As streaming services like YouTube and Netflix gained popularity, the Canadian broadcast industry grew concerned about the impact on their businesses. Through Strategic Foresight, we helped them understand long-term shifts in audience behavior and evaluate changes to their business models and product roadmaps within multiple future scenarios.
During the pandemic, Adriane, a young executive, found herself furloughed and unemployed for the first time in her career. By conducting in-depth trends research and analysis on Volunteer Engagement, she not only quickly found a new job but also advanced in her career.
Furthermore, the resulting trend research and analysis were widely shared with volunteer-run organizations, sparking industry-wide dialogue about the future and how to address it.
Moving Forward with Strategic Foresight
Adopting Strategic Foresight as a management tool compels us to contemplate multiple possible futures. We have a choice: we can passively let the future happen and react to it, or we can take a moment to envision how we want it to unfold and proactively begin planning for it.
In my upcoming articles, I will use Strategic Foresight methodology to explore various trends that will impact or influence leaders and discuss the implications moving forward. As shared at the start of this article these might include increased homelessness, reliance on food banks, mass migration, environmental disasters, shifting work patterns, and changing values. My goal is to prompt you and your teams to think about the future and its possibilities.