The Evolution of Hybrid Work — From Where and When to Who and How
This article presents a Strategic Foresight perspective on Hybrid Work. We will explore the evolution of Hybrid Work from its inception in the physical workplace to the methods of work and eventually to its impact on employment status. Additionally, we will discuss the future implications of Hybrid Work for both profit and not-for-profit organizations. For a deeper understanding of Strategic Foresight, I recommend reading my primer on Medium.com titled “Mastering Change with Strategic Foresight and Innovation.”
The Shift to Remote Work: A Pandemic Catalyst
The COVID-19 global pandemic brought about a drastic change in the way people work. Overnight, office jobholders were forced to work from home to slow down virus contagion. While remote work was a new phenomenon for many, some individuals, like me, had been working remotely for over a year and a half before the pandemic. The situation was unique, as it impacted both newcomers and seasoned remote workers.
As restrictions eased, certain companies, including Meta and Twitter, initially proclaimed a commitment to permanent remote work. However, their stance underwent a reversal and they switched to Hybrid Work. Employees were mandated to return to the office two days a week and in some cases, this in-office requirement increased over time. This shift prompted mixed reactions among the workforce: while some embraced the return to the office, others sought opportunities with employers offering greater flexibility in remote work arrangements. While Hybrid Work offers an illusion of flexibility, it often benefits employers more than employees. This becomes a point of contention for many employees who are caretakers or neurodivergent.
The Morphing of Hybrid Work: From Where to Who and How
With the emergence of ChatGPT and other Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) platforms, Hybrid Work is now undergoing a significant transformation. Harvard Business Professor Bill Kerr and VP Global Learning and Future of Work at Unilever Patrick Hull discuss in a Harvard Business Review Cold Call podcast on July 24th, 2023, how Hybrid Work is morphing from where people work to who does the work. They define jobs as a series of tasks, some of which Generative AI can handle. The question of who will perform these tasks, humans, or machines, remains to be seen.
Expanding on Kerr and Hull’s point of view, current Hybrid Work not only revolves around the physical location of work but also addresses the timing of work. Generative AI can replace humans for repetitive tasks while also enhancing other tasks. This shifts the focus of Hybrid Work from WHO does the work to HOW the work is completed.
Building upon this idea, Unilever is delving into Hybrid Work arrangements that bridge the gap between gig and full-time workers, enabling employees to participate in projects across different departments. They are further changing the nature of Hybrid Work.
The Broader Impact of Hybrid Work
Hybrid Work’s multifaceted nature leads to profound economic and social changes. It affects the nature of city-centers, support services, team dynamics, leadership approaches, interpersonal communication, work-life balance, and employee values. The pandemic also made many office workers prioritize well-being, mental health, and flexibility over career and employer loyalty. The shift is complex and dynamic, making it challenging to define and analyze as a single trend.
The Promise and Shadows of Hybrid Work
On paper, hybrid office work offers the best of both worlds for employers and employees: the benefits of office work and remote work. The office encourages team building, fosters communication, and allows employers to monitor team performance. Remote work reduces costs and offers flexibility, leading to improved productivity, performance, engagement, retention, and profitability.
However, some managers are skeptical about remote work’s benefits, citing performance, security, team management, and mental health as concerns. Different metrics yield varying results on remote work performance. Data and intellectual property leakages are also top concerns for corporations using remote work and Generative AI tools. Managers are struggling to manage remote teams effectively due to changes in communication methods. Remote workers face challenges with isolation, reduced camaraderie, and motivation, impacting their well-being, turnover rates, and performance.
The War on Hybrid
Some companies like Amazon and Meta are compelling employees to return to the office, while others like Disney are reducing remote workdays. Google even threatened to punish employees if they didn’t return to the office. Employees are facing difficult decisions, like leaving successful careers, due to changes in workplace arrangements.
Hybrid employment arrangements present unique challenges, such as gig workers not fitting traditional models. These trends require attention to ensure the well-being of employees and to maintain a sustainable economy.
Hybrid Work Moving Forward
Flexibility remains the cornerstone of the evolution of Hybrid Work — from workplace, to work methods, and to employment status. Since I’m confident that this trend will only grow and evolve over time, I’ll use the Cone of Plausibility as my scenario generating method. It was first created in 1988 by Charles Taylor.
The following 4 scenarios imagine the future of Hybrid Work in the year 2028.
Baseline Scenario: Employers retain control, and flexibility is minimal, dictated by top-down leadership. Individual organizations may vary in their level of flexibility, but leadership holds control with blanket policies in place.
Desirable Scenario: Organizations embrace flexibility, choice, and collaboration between leadership and employees. Employees work with managers to design schedules and lifestyles that benefit both parties. Performance remains important, and leaders work with employees to achieve it through generative AI or remote work.
Transformative Scenario: Organizations respond to market changes by transforming their value propositions and business models. Hybrid Work becomes a competitive edge, and companies that hesitated to explore and adopt it may struggle to retain market share.
Wildcard Scenario: Some organizations choose not to adopt any Hybrid Work and sustain the status quo, at least for the time being.
Hybrid Work represents a complex and evolving trend with profound implications for workplaces and employees. As the future unfolds, organizations will navigate these different scenarios based on their goals, work requirements, and employee values. The challenge lies in finding the right balance that accommodates both employer and employee needs while ensuring sustainable and productive work environments.
Ideas in this article are pulled from the following resources:
5 Proven Benefits of Remote Work For Companies
Laurel Farrer
February 12, 2020
https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurelfarrer/2020/02/12/top-5-benefits-of-remote-work-for-companies/?sh=613e471e16c8
Businesses are cutting workers’ hours in a warning sign for the economy
Abha Bhattarai
July 11, 2023
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/11/part-time-jobs-economy/
Cities urged to adapt as hybrid work is ‘here to stay’
Sarah Wray
July 25, 2023
https://cities-today.com/cities-urged-to-adapt-as-hybrid-work-is-here-to-stay/
Despite labour shortages, why are employers reluctant to hire gig workers?
John Dujai
January 04, 2023
https://www.hrreporter.com/focus-areas/recruitment-and-staffing/despite-labour-shortages-why-are-employers-reluctant-to-hire-gig-workers/372611
Don’t schedule meetings after 4 pm
Rani Mola
July 22, 2023
https://www.vox.com/technology/23802010/hybrid-work-meetings-flexibility-managers
Gen X is in charge. Don’t make a big deal out of it.
Emma Goldberg
July 7, 2023
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/business/gen-x-in-charge-companies-chief-executives.html
How Unilever Is Preparing for the Future of Work
Harvard Business Review cold call podcast — Professor Bill Kerr from Harvard Business School and Patrick Hull from Unilever
July 24, 2023
https://hbr.org/podcast/2023/07/how-unilever-is-preparing-for-the-future-of-work
Hybrid work is not the future, says Meta’s former director of remote work: It’s an ‘illusion of choice’
Jane Thier
July 20, 2023
https://fortune.com/2023/07/20/hybrid-work-problems-annie-dean-meta-atlassian/
Hybrid-work trend may wipe out $800 billion from office property values by 2030, McKinsey study says
Reuters
July 13, 2023
https://www.reuters.com/business/hybrid-work-trend-may-wipe-out-800-bln-office-property-values-by-2030-mckinsey-2023-07-13/
Scenario generation and scenario quality using the cone of plausibility
Mandeep K. Dhami, Lars Wicke, Dilek Onkal
September 2022
https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/115927/1/Wicke_scenario_generation_published.pdf
The Metaverse Offers A New Frontier For Hybrid And Remote Work
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky
July 23, 2023
https://www.forbes.com/sites/glebtsipursky/2023/07/23/the-metaverse-offers-a-new-frontier-for-hybrid-and-remote-work/?sh=226cdc292a34
The new hybrid work, humans working with AI, will require more skills from managers
Harvey Schachter
July 24, 2023
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/careers/management/article-the-new-hybrid-work-humans-working-with-ai-will-require-more-skills/
Why hybrid return-to-office mandates aren’t as flexible as they seem
Alex Christian
June 13, 2023
https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230613-why-hybrid-return-to-office-mandates-arent-as-flexible-as-they-seem
Why Hybrid Work Will Win Out Over Remote and In-Person — Whether You Like It or Not.
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky
July 14, 2023
https://www.entrepreneur.com/leadership/why-hybrid-work-will-win-out-over-remote-and-in-person/455425
You can’t put the hybrid work back into the bottle
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky
July 22, 2023
https://www.forbes.com/sites/glebtsipursky/2023/07/22/you-cant-put-the-hybrid-work-genie-back-into-the-bottle/?sh=3f653dd14d2a