Greenhouse gas report shows a cloudy future — with important silver linings

By Andrew Wineke, Washington Department of Ecology

A recent report from the Washington Department of Ecology showed that greenhouse gas emissions in our state rose 6.1 percent between 2012 and 2015.

Looking at the 6.1 percent increase without delving deeper sounds like bad news. And, yes, it shows that our state has plenty of work to do if we’re going to reach the emissions targets set by the Legislature. But there’s more to it — a closer look at the numbers reveals some encouraging signs of progress.

What the increase in emissions doesn’t show is that our state experienced significant population growth and economic growth over the same three-year period. In fact, while carbon emissions have grown slightly, our economy has grown faster. This means that the total carbon pollution generated per dollar of economic activity in our state has actually fallen.

If you look back a little farther, the 97.4 million metric tons of greenhouse gases emitted in 2015 is down significantly from the peak of 108.6 million metric tons produced in 2000. Overall, Washington has some of the lowest emissions per resident in the country — a tenth of what residents of the highest-polluting states generate.

So, our economy is getting cleaner and more efficient, and that’s a good sign. But it’s not the only sign of progress in the new report.

Take transportation. Our state’s population grew by 240,000 people between 2012 and 2015. More people and more business activity meant more than 350,000 new vehicles registered between 2012 and 2015.

Despite this, greenhouse gas emissions from gasoline-powered cars and trucks — the largest single category of carbon pollution in our state — stayed nearly flat from 2012 to 2015. Plus, they were down significantly from the high water mark in 2003, when our state had almost a million fewer people.

What’s going on? Increased use of mass transit (up sharply since 2010 in King County) and improved fuel economy standards are a big part of it. There may be more of us driving more cars, but we’re getting more efficient. And, although it doesn’t show up in the stats, Washington has the second-highest rate of electric vehicle sales in the country, which means more and more of us are getting around without producing any emissions at all.

The super-polluting greenhouse gas chemicals called hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are one category in the report where emissions have been climbing steadily, doubling in the last 15 years and projected to continue to grow. That’s why Gov. Jay Inslee proposed legislation to phase down the use HFCs.

One more key point: Washington suffered a crippling drought during 2015. Our state heavily depends on hydropower, so less water to spin the turbines meant we needed to find other sources of electricity. In 2016, the drought broke, reservoirs filled, and emissions from electricity generation dropped again as hydroelectric production resumed.

So what does this all mean if we want to achieve our greenhouse gas emissions targets?

One effort already underway but not noted in the report is the transition away from coal-fired electricity. The TransAlta Centralia power plant — a major source of greenhouse gas emissions — is required to stop burning coal at one of its two generating units in 2020 and the other by 2025. The Colstrip coal power plant in Montana, which sends part of its power to Washington utilities, is due to shut down two of its four generating units by 2022. And our state’s renewable energy standard jumps up again in 2020, which means Washington’s utilities are continuing to invest in wind, solar and other sources of renewable power.

All of those changes will result in big emissions reductions, but it’s still not enough. To get us on track for our 2035 target, Gov. Jay Inslee announced a clean energy and climate package in December 2018 that transitions the state to 100 percent clean energy, supports zero-emission vehicles, improves building efficiency, lowers the carbon content in fuels, and phases down potent greenhouse gases called hydrofluorocarbons.

“Driving down emissions and reducing carbon means harnessing that innovation and super-charging our efforts to do it more, do it bigger and do it faster,” Inslee said during his Dec. 2018 budget rollout. “We can do this. We must do this. And we’ll all benefit from the economic growth and increased security that comes with it”.

Under Inslee’s leadership, Washington State agencies are leading the way. In 2018, Inslee issued an executive order to reduce emissions from state operations. That directive will mean more projects like the Helen Sommers building in Olympia, home to the Washington State Patrol’s headquarters and several other state agencies, which earned the highest certification possible for sustainability. The Sommers building produces 71.4 percent less carbon dioxide than an average office building. Another example is Inslee’s requirement that 50 percent of all new state passenger vehicles be electric by 2020.

We all want to grow our economy and we all know we need to reduce carbon pollution. This report shows that those goals aren’t mutually exclusive.

Read the report: Washington State Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory: 1990–2015