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Bitcoin futures: People rejoyce, but they still worry. Getty images embed. Photo by Drew Angerer.

Bitcoin CME futures

A rare mix of uncertainty and excitement

By Percy Venegas www.EconomyMonitor.com

Futures and Options markets protect against the risk of the passing of time, and the things that change with it, like prices. And ultimately, derivatives can be seen as a network of fluid flows that change over time — because hedgers transfer risk, and speculators absorb that risk. But what are the emotions behind the forces of demand that are bringing digital asset derivatives for the first time in history, and how do they flow? We used 17877 posts, 22245 mentions, and a year worth of behavioral data to find out. After all, from Aristotle we know that this device is not only timeless but universal.

All these methods are serviceable for those who value wealth-getting, for example the plan of Thales of Miletus, which is a device for the business of getting wealth, but which, though it is attributed to him because of his wisdom, is really of universal application. Thales, so the story goes, because of his poverty was taunted with the uselessness of philosophy; but from his knowledge of astronomy he had observed while it was still winter that there was going to be a large crop of olives, so he raised a small sum of money and paid round deposits for the whole of the olive-presses in Miletus and Chios, which he hired at a low rent as nobody was running him up; and when the season arrived, there was a sudden demand for a number of presses at the same time, and by letting them out on what terms he liked he realized a large sum of money, so proving that it is easy for philosophers to be rich if they choose, but this is not what they care about. — Aristotle, in Politics

Interest around the globe

Virtually every country is talking bitcoin futures.

Explosion

The topic of bitcoin derivatives has been latent for a while, but the explosion of interest occurred at the end of October.

Share of voice trend (mentions per topic)

Sentiment

Negative sentiment tends to be larger when the conversation is about futures.

When talking futures, authors tend to show concern on what can go wrong in the ecosystem at large.

But the conversation around options also expresses lack of clarity on how contracts should/will work.

Themes

Prices are everyone’s concern, taxes are an afterthought.

Consumer intention

Taxes are a factor for those interested in options, but they feel uneasy already. The bulls are after futures contracts.

Sources

You need to convert your next customer or kill a bad rumor. Where to find them? In a manner that is atypical for crypto, here Twitter carries almost no weight.

Positive sentiment

Surprisingly, the news lags behind video sites and forums. Hype is usually easier to manipulate with videos, so here’s where the futures’ herders are. But options, something people are pondering more, is discussed with long-form arguments in forums.

Negative sentiment

Reddit, known for more caustic argumentation, moves up to the top three.

Ambivalent sentiment

Here are the undecided. The majority are in the futures camp.


Suggested reads: Tracking Bitcoin Whales

Published by www.EconomyMonitor.com

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