On top of the South, how does SC hang on?
By Eddie Kim <@eddiekimx>
Somehow, USC today stands on top of the Pac-12 South Division. A path to the conference championship game exists in our control.
This is a pretty long piece, so let’s cut the crap and jump straight into five observations from the 28–26 victory over No. 10 Arizona:
The O-line plays well = offensive leads
The biggest question around the Trojans at the beginning of the year was whether the offensive line would hold up with a pair of true freshman guards, RG Damien Mama and LG Toa Lobendahn. They’ve played well thus far save for a tragic game against Boston College and in moments against Arizona State and Stanford, which has the top-ranked defense in the Pac-12.
The guard position is particularly critical because of Sarkisian’s penchant to dial up “power” runs.
Instead of each offensive lineman blocking the defensive lineman across from them, power runs involve a “pulling” guard who winds around to pave the way for the running back.
When executed properly, these plays put more blockers at the point of attack. When executed poorly, it leads to unblocked defensive players blowing up the running back before they can get any yards.
USC ran for 239 yards against the Wildcats largely because it executed its bread-and-butter power runs well, as with this big touchdown from running back Javorius “Buck” Allen.
#1 Darreus Rogers goes in motion across the field, taking a cornerback with him (indicating a man-assignment defensive play).
I’ll let the play speak for itself:
Touchdown, Allen (nice cut, bro!).
Mental errors, continued
For the second straight game, USC defense made a critical mental mistake late in the game that led directly to a touchdown to cut the Trojans’ lead.
With 10:27 to go in the fourth quarter, on a critical fourth-and-3, Arizona lined up and ran a pass play.
The Trojans are playing a simple defense: Man coverage with two high safeties. Linebacker Anthony Sarao (blue) is tasked with guarding third-string running back Jared Baker.
Sarao tracks him correctly after the snap. Then, inexplicably, Sarao decides to stay inside and defend a drag route coming across the field, which is already covered by a teammate.
Meanwhile, Baker keeps running up the sideline, wide open for a catch. Safety Gerald Bowman doesn’t see the sideline route (he is the last line of defense). Touchdown.
The worst part? Arizona hurt USC with the same wheel route in the first quarter, that time run by DaVonte’ Neal. Nobody picked him up, and it went for 27 yards.
USC is also committing far too many penalties. Through four conference matchups, the Trojans are averaging an incredible 11.25 penalties per game. USC has given up an average of 78.3 yards per game to opponents on penalties in the season — good for 10th in the Pac-12 and 118th out of 128 teams nationally. (Against Arizona? Thirteen penalties for 103 yards).
Penalties are a great way to give a winnable game away to an opponent, and penalties on offense against Arizona helped kill some late-game drives that could’ve ended in points.
Much Ado About Cody Kessler
“Game manager.” There is no worse backhanded compliment for a quarterback than that. It implies efficient, conservative, practically timid play on the field. And it also describes USC’s Cody Kessler, in a way.
The junior quarterback is extremely accurate, completing 69.1% of his passes this season. He’s thrown for 11 touchdowns with just 1 interception. But his inability, or at least unwillingness, to throw the ball deep is clear now. (More on that later).
He also threw the first bad interception of the season, giving the ball away in USC territory near the end of the second quarter. Kessler dodged a sack and juked an incoming linebacker by inches, but had space to plant and throw to tight end Randall Telfer (#82), who was running up the sideline. Instead, Kesller threw on an awkward run-step and gave it to Arizona.
Some more bad decision-making came on USC’s final drive on third-and-short, when he threw to a covered Buck Allen in the flat area to Kessler’s left instead of looking downfield for the first down.
Sarksian was probably thinking of that play when he told the Los Angeles Times that “we have not gotten through the [pass] progression as well as I would have liked.”
Playcalling
In two straight games, we’ve seen Sark go extremely conservative with his playcalling with a lead in the fourth quarter. The idea is to milk the clock down, not commit turnovers, and lean on a run game that’s beaten the opponent thus far.
The problem is that it’s just so, so predictable after a while. Against Arizona in the fourth quarter, USC ran 11 run plays and 3 pass plays. USC’s three fourth-quarter drives all ended on third-and-long scenarios that Kessler was unable to convert with a pass. All three drives ended out of field goal range.
For some perspective:
In six games, USC’s rushing attempts by quarter: 51, 61, 75, 80.
Meanwhile, USC’s passing attempts by quarter: 56, 67, 48, 36.
“I think we really need to remain a little bit more aggressive, quite honestly,” Sarkisian said after Tuesday’s practice. “The old traditional way of milking the clock, just trying to eat up possessions and what not — I don’t know if that’s exactly where we need to be.”
Also missing is that uptempo rhythm everyone was buzzing about before the season began. I don’t expect another performance like the Pac-12 record-setting Fresno State match (we threw 105 plays at the Bulldogs that day). But I would like to see USC press the gas pedal a bit more on some drives, especially if the defense looks confused or out of alignment.
Justin Wilcox + the cornerbacks
Boy, I’m glad I’m not USC Defensive Coordinator Justin Wilcox. He’s had some rough games thus far in terms of both passing and run defense.
For the most part, the Trojans have shown that they can stop the run (well, if a QB isn’t running, at least) this season. They’ve also been decent against the pass, and rank No. 5 in the conference in total pass defense.
Yet it’s clearly the biggest hole in USC’s defense, and Arizona State’s Mike Bercovici and Arizona’s Solomon dominated the air in their outings.
They were most effective, in fact, in the fourth quarter. In general, opposing quarterbacks average a passer rating of 98.6 through the first three quarters, then 141.9 in the fourth.
Through six games, USC is allowing an average of 54 pass yards in the first, second and third quarters — but 93 yards in the fourth quarter alone.
Another issue is that the Trojans secondary is extremely young.
USC’s excellent Josh Shaw is supposed to be the No. 1 cornerback, but he’s still suspended after bizarrely lying to school officials that he sprained his ankles while saving his drowning nephew.
Current No. 1 cornerback Kevon Seymour has played solidly but has gotten exploited at times. He got burned on four consecutive pass plays on Arizona’s third drive, giving up 35 yards and two third-down conversions in the process.
No. 2 CB Adoree’ Jackson has shown incredible flashes of talent but also has gotten burned (he’s a true freshman). The next two cornerbacks, Chris Hawkins and John Lockett, are a redshirt freshman and true freshman, respectively.
Three freshmen and just one junior? Wilcox and defensive backs coach Keith Hayward have a lot of coaching to do.
The Colorado Check List
Establish the deep pass
Sarkisian told reporters this week that he wanted Kessler to sling the ball deep more often. If USC develops a lead against Colorado with some strong running (Buck Allen ran for 145 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2013), Kessler needs to take as many deep shots as possible to develop confidence before he faces tougher foes.
Kessler has the right touch, but it feels like he’s usually hesitant to pull the trigger on deep throws. USC is 9th in the Pac-12 in passes of 20+ yards, and tied for 8th in passes for 40+ yards.
Develop a serious pass rush
The Trojans are only getting 1.83 sacks per game, way below the Pac-12 average of 2.59 sacks per game (USC ranks No. 8).
USC’s top defensive player, lineman Leonard Williams, has a sore shoulder and could be used sparingly on Saturday. That will give the rest of the D-line stable a chance to prove they’re just as capable without Williams. It’s pretty obvious Delvon Simmons, Antoine Woods and company can stop the run. But can they get to the passer, especially without Williams taking on double-team blocks?
Forge the freshmen cornerbacks in fire
As of Wednesday evening, Las Vegas had USC as 19.5 point favorites over Colorado. It’s not unreasonable to expect the Trojans to put up big points against the 2–4 Buffaloes, who are giving up 35.7 points a game (109th in the nation).
Assuming USC gets a lead, it would be wise for Wilcox to pressure his young cornerbacks a bit. Instead of playing conservative zone coverages, I think USC should put the freshmen in aggressive man-coverage plays and maybe even run some cornerback blitzes, especially on throwing situations.
Meanwhile, junior CB Seymour should spend some time locking down Colorado WR Nelson Spurce. Spurce has been targeted 89 times this year — second-most in the country — and Seymour still needs to hone his coverage skills.
