Decision Making in Fantasy Football

Buoyed by an exceptionally good score in the opening week of Fantasy Football I decided to write down what I got right and wrong from my endless hours spent tinkering with my team before the season started.

My plan is to do this for every week of the season, to get my thoughts out of my head and in writing, and with the added accountability of it being on the internet

Based on the idea of “there’s a difference between a bad decision and a bad outcome” I’m going to analyze the decisions I made ahead of each gameweek and, with the benefit of hindsight split them into one of 4 quadrants: a bad decision with a bad outcome(the punishment of poor decision making), a bad decision with a good outcome (good luck), a good decision with a bad outcome (bad luck) and the holy grail, a good decision with a good outcome.

Since you only (generally!) make 0–2 transfers each week, this should typically be a fairly brief exercise, but this being the first week of the season, I have an entire team of decisions to assess.

But firstly, how did my team perform?

My Team

A summer of staring at my phone well spent….

I scored a respectable 104 points in gameweek 1. This puts me 6,396th in the world out of around 7 million players. This is definitely my best ever start to a season, but was it the result of blind luck or good planning? I’ll dive into the good / bad decision / outcome quadrant to find out!

Bad Decision, Bad Outcome

The zero points for Vinagre on my bench might look like a bad outcome. But in reality him not playing was what subbed in Justin first from my bench with 9 points.

Starting with Vinagre was definitely a bad decision though. Wolves fans were saying he wouldn’t start, they signed Marcel who is clearly a left-back, despite me kidding myself that he might be played at left-center back.

Arguably the fact that I now am lumbered with a guy who doesn’t look like a starter is a bad outcome long term — he might drop in price as people sell him, and I lose the buffer zone of having a possible clean sheet subbing in off my bench.

However, in the context of the gameweek, this ended up as a win for me

The main bad outcome from this week was that I didn’t cap Mo Salah. While my captain Aubameyang did score, had I chosen Mo I would have scored an even loftier 117 points which would have put me just outside the top 500 players in the world.

Was it a bad decision? Arguably yes. Both Arsenal and Liverpool were playing newly promoted sides, I did some very cursory research on them (read, I looked at the championship table from last year), saw that Leeds conceded 35 goals to Fulham’s 48 and concluded that Leeds were the better defensive team and as such it was better to target Fulham’s comparatively leakier defense.

I failed to take two things into account here:

1. The relative gulf in quality between Liverpool and Arsenal. Even if Leeds are the more miserly defence of the two opponents, Liverpool being one of the top two teams in the country should weight their (and Mo Salah’s) likelihood of scoring multiple goals higher
2. The style of play. While it’s true that Leeds conceded very few goals in the championship, I didn’t do much homework on how they play. Had I done so, I Would would have seen a well-drilled but very aggressive side that commit men forward. Essentially they “have a go” and while that undoubtedly means they are a better side than Fulham, and possible will win more games in the premiership, it also means they are exactly the sort of team against whom a quality pressing side like Liverpool can score a lot of goals.

Verdict? This was a bad decision with a bad outcome

BD, BO Score = 1

Bad Decision, Good Outcome

The aforementioned Vinagre swapping for Justin scores me a point here. Timo Werner looked good while the rest of Chelsea didn’t vs Brighton, so as a player I’m loathe to consider picking him a bad decision. You could argue he was lucky to get an assist for a penalty, but then had RLC been able to weight a pass better, he would have likely had a goal.

Jamie Vardy is tricky. Like Mo Salah, he scored two penalties. Unlike Salah, he didn’t have a single shot (except for the two penalties). Comparing their non-penalty xG paints a stark picture: Salah(0.42) to Vardy(0).

Picking a striker who had 2 shots, both penalties which he scored seems like a textbook bad decision with a good outcome

I had one obvious good outcome in Reece James scoring 14 points. I think I will have to put this down as a bad decision however. I did pick him due to his potential for attacking returns — he had xG+A per 90 last season of 0.23. However, when I imagined what these attacking returns would look like, I pictures him making an overlapping run, and cutting the ball back for Werner to hammer home. I didn’t even know he took corners, so I can’t take credit for predicting his assist, and I certainly didn’t imagine (nor, I suspect, did he) that Chelsea’s right back was capable of scoring a screamer from 30 yards

Given his team didn’t keep a clean sheet, and that both of his attacking returns were highly unlikely (deflected corner and wondergoal) I have to chalk this up as a (quite) bad decision with a (very) good outcome

BD, GO score = 3

Good decision, bad outcome

Liverpool, while given a very good game by Leeds were statistically unlikely to concede at all. Leeds only had 6 shots total, and scored with every shot on target. Given the relatively low Xg of these shots, the likelihood that Liverpool kept a clean sheet was actually very high: 0.75 It’s fair to say Liverpool and Trent were unlucky to concede based on the shots they faced (Even if Leeds matched them in open play)

GD BO Score = 1

Good decision, good outcome

I deliberated about Saiss vs Coady right until the deadline. I definitely wanted a piece of the Wolves defence as I think they are the 3rd best defence in the league. I chose Saiss for his extra goal threat, even if I felt he was slightly less nailed. He handsomely rewarded me, grabbing a goal and playing out of his skin, even heading off the line to keep the clean sheet intact

Having Justin 1st on the bench paid off, as he subbed on for Vinagre. The extra points for his “assist” for being felled in the box weren’t part of the plan, but I did think Leicester were likely to keep a clean sheet (although I though Wolves were more likely to do so, hence staring Vinagre)

It could be argued that Calvert Lewin was a bad decision with a good outcome: he had fewer chances than Richarlison, and the goal he scored while a fantastic header, was a low percentage chance. However, I Would rebut that a) had Richarlison squared the ball DCL would have tapped into an empty net and b) the decision I actually made was to chose DCL + Saint Maximin over Che Adams + Foden. This was based on the assumption that Everton’s new signings were going to make them much more lethal in the final 3rd and that DCL would be the main beneficiary of this.

I’m putting Werner into this camp as well: 0.42 xG was as good as Salah’s from open play, and he looks a real threat. 1 return from your first game in the premier league is still a good outcome. Considering some were worried if he’d start, this turned out to be a good decision.

And while I didn’t captain Mo Salah, having him at all was clearly both a good decision and a good outcome, as was Aubameyang who could have had an assist as well.

GD, GO Score = 6

Miscellaneous

I don’t think my goalkeeper really factors into any quadrant here. By the deadline there were only really 2 options for 4.5 goalkeepers, Ryan and McCarthy. I chose McCarthy as I think Southampton are the better team, but it’s too early to see which of those two teams keeps more clean sheets.

Saint-Maximin I also had pretty low expectations for. If he gets a return every 4 games I will be happy, and that’s all I’m expecting from my 5.5M slot (and having at least one Newcastle player in my team will gain good vibes from my Geordie wife, do perhaps a good decision there too)

Results

11 in total, the breakdown is :

Bad decision, bad outcome = 1

Bad decision, good outcome = 3

Good decision, bad outcome = 1

Good decision, good outcome = 6

Or to sum up another way, my game week was:

9% poor decision making

27% good luck

9% bad luck

54% well made decisions

My decisions for next week

Tramsfers

Pretty straightforward this one, I’ve decided to hold my transfer. I was considering transferring Vardy for Martial decided against it because Crystal Palace actually looked decent defensively despite their injuries and I suspect they will dig in even more with 2 banks of 4 against Utd. Burnley’s center backs both played in the week, and I think them having to play Eric Pieters in midfield to cover the injured Gudmundsson will give Harvey Barnes a lot of space. I’m thinking a Vardy return is actually more likely than one for Martial, and not worth the transfer

Other transfers I considered

Vinagre to Dallas, Lamptey or Lewis of Newcastle. I decided against it as I would ultimately prefer to start Justin over any of those, and with Ricardo injured until end of October I can start Justin for the foreseeable

Saint-Maximin for Podence. News of Jota leaving means starts for podence seem very likely. Ultimately, bringing in an attacking player for a game against Man City doesn’t seem like the move

Captain

I’m going with Aubameyang. While I think it’s likely that Salah will return against Chelsea, I see the brace or hatrick potential with Arsenal vs West Ham. Not only did West Ham look bad against Newcastle, but I think Arsenal look incredibly dangerous switching the play from the right into the channels which Aubameyang runs into, With Bowen preferring to drift inside rather than track back I think there will be plenty of 1 v 1’s between Aubameyang and West Ham’s right back, Ryan Fredericks. While he’s quick, I just don’t see him outsmarting the Arsenal talisman face up.

I also noticed in the Newcastle game that West Ham were trying to press and this is borne out in the stats. For all the teams in gameweek 1, they are 2nd only to Southampton for passes allowed per defensive action in the opposition half with only 6.41.

The prospect of a team of West Ham’s defensive ineptitude attempting to press rather than parking the bus versus Arsenal’s system which is set up to quickly break against the press points to an Aubameyang haul.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week!