The Logic of Risk Taking
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
13.5K82

“never cross a river if it is on average four feet deep.” Excellent adage, but might be better phrased. I suggest “attempt to ford” rather than “cross” (to preclude readers’ confusion from assumptions that the only way to cross is by a bridge), and some smaller measurement like “three inches” rather than “four feet” (because speaking as a person who has actually forded rivers, it is eminently possible to be swept away and drown in a current that is *consistently* four feet deep). Love your insights, keep up the great work.

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