Our Autonomous Future: Yes, We Still Need Parking
These days, there aren’t many transportation-related topics hotter than autonomous vehicles (AVs). According to their advocates, AVs have the potential to reduce congestion, improve safety, and even save the planet from air pollution. Estimates suggest that by 2035, there will be 23 million AVs on U.S. highways.

But while the self-styled “Ironmen” of the world like to wax poetic about our autonomous future, the reality is much more complicated. Oftentimes, the AV discussion overlooks critical discussions about our existing infrastructure, as well as the behaviors of the people using and maintaining it.
Here are six things you need to know about our autonomous future, and how parking fits into it.
1. Autonomous vehicles are not fully autonomous.
When most people think of autonomous cars, they think of a vehicle that can pick up a passenger and take them to the destination of choice while they take a nap in the backseat. But that’s not what the immediate future of AVs looks like.
The reality is this: Some autonomous cars are more autonomous than others. Experts have established a five-level rating scale to classify the different levels of AVs. A level 1 AV includes some automated features, like cruise control, and in fact most cars on the road today are level 1 AVs. That’s quite different from a level 5 AV — a fully autonomous car.
Most AVs being tested today are level 3 AVs. This means that while the cars are autonomous, a driver must be present and ready to intervene at any moment. So it is not exactly a driverless car. There are a few level 4 AVs being tested — which do not require a driver. However, because of legal regulations, these level 4 AVs will be limited to driving in defined geographical areas for the foreseeable future. It’s likely that they won’t be used at all in weather conditions such as snow and heavy rain.
2. AVs do not adequately model human behavior behind the wheel.
The prototyping phase of the autonomous vehicle revolution has been met with high media visibility. And why not? It’s nothing short of a modern marvel to watch a seemingly intelligent vehicle navigate a road course on its own. Unfortunately, such platforms are still ill-equipped to adapt to irrational human behavior on the road, much less emulate it precisely.
Think about it: many cities have their own unwritten rules of the road, dictated in part by infrastructure and even more so by local culture. In New York City, for example, hesitation to turn on a fresh red light will not only cost you precious minutes on a commute, but may send confusing signals to surrounding drivers that could lead to a wreck.
Unlike AI, humans don’t always follow the rules. Put another way: artificial intelligence currently lacks street smarts. And until its proponents have narrowed this intelligence gap significantly, AV will be at best a hindrance and at worst a liability on real roads among real people.
3. Acceptance of AVs will vary widely across different demographics.
At risk of starting the obvious, not everyone will be open to AVs. While a 22-year old tech geek may be enthralled by the prospect of a self-driving vehicle, it is going to be a harder sell for a 70-year-old grandma. In fact, it’s likely that self-driving cars will follow a pattern similar to Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) such as Uber and Lyft. While these services are very popular among young people, they have not been universally adapted.
Looking at the TNC case is educational. While it’s true that TNCs have reduced the demand for parking, the drop-off isn’t uniform. Evidence suggests the demand for parking has been drastically reduced outside of nightclubs and restaurants — venues that cater towards young people and serve alcohol. But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t still a need for parking outside of banks, office parks, and supermarkets. In fact, it’s quite likely that there will be a large demand for personally-owned vehicles to fulfill these functions.
4. TNCs will be the first to adapt driverless cars.
Most experts agree that ridesharing services will be the first to adapt driverless cars — and in fact, Uber is heavily investing into AV research. But since TNCs don’t currently use much parking, the move towards AVs will not necessarily reduce the demand for parking in the short-term.
5. Driverless cars will only represent a small portion of the market.
Think about it. Even if AVs represent 15% of all new car sales in 2030 — a fairly optimistic projection — there will still be tens of millions of non-autonomous vehicles that need parking spaces. Since the average American car stays on the road for 11.5 years, it’s safe to say that non-autonomous cars won’t be going anywhere for a long time.
Fortunately, parking also isn’t going anywhere.
6. AVs will require significant investment in building new infrastructure to serve them.
AVs are exciting. But, for all of the reasons previously discussed, our existing mobility paradigm isn’t going to disappear overnight. And as is, our cities are designed for drivers, not for driverless vehicles.

Most companies trying to get in on the AV future fail to realize this fundamental fact, so they don’t really have a plan for how to change roads, curbs, vehicles, and drivers to accommodate AVs. After spending billions of dollars on AV development, they are going to dump a fleet of driverless vehicles on cities and leave it to municipal governments to figure out the rest of it. That’s not exactly a recipe for long-term success.
Don’t buy into the hype that parking and drivers will become relics of the past. Yes, the future is autonomous. But the future will also need good parking.
