Super Bowl Squares Odds: The best and worst numbers
How historically weird scores and Patriots-Eagles win probabilities impact your chances
If you’re participating in a Super Bowl Squares Pool this year and want to know your chances of winning with a certain final-score combination, here they are. These probabilities take into account (a) the impact of 2015, 2016, and 2017’s historically weird NFL scores and (b) each team’s win probability (per FiveThirtyEight). Both elements are critical to understanding your odds.
Super Bowl LII’s best final-score number combination is [Patriots 0, Eagles 7], followed closely by its inverse [Patriots 7, Eagles 0]. Thirty-two pairs give you an above-average (>1%) chance to win, and the top 12 pairs own over one-third of the board’s probabilities. The worst draw is a pair of twos, which has happened only three times in any regular season or playoff games in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).
[Like many New Yorkers, I grew up calling these Super Bowl Boxes. But calling them Squares is more accurate and far more common outside of the New York area. During the past five Super Bowl weeks, “Super Bowl Squares” had about eight times the Google search frequency as “Super Bowl Boxes.” The NYC metro area is the only one I can find in which “Boxes” outranks “Squares,” and even there, it’s not by much. It’s a fun Google Trends rabbit hole if you’re into that.]
In any case, if you want to know why weird scores and win probabilities matter, please read on!
What are weird scores and why do they matter?
Those of you familiar with ELDORADO know that I’ve tracked and analyzed the changing face of NFL scores over the past three seasons. The short version — as NFL fans know well — is that before the 2015 season, the league moved the extra point back from 20 yards, where kickers converted 99% of the time, to 33 yards, where they’ve made 94% of kicks (lowest since 1979).
Combined with other aspects of the modern game — namely the proliferation of field goals and the existence of the two-point conversion — the move gave rise to the weirdest scores in NFL history. Since 2015, 19.6% of individual team scores have been “non-traditional” (18, 19, 22, 26, 33, etc.), compared with averages of 13.6% from 1994 to 2014 and 9.5% all-time. The 2015 and 2016 seasons set records for weird scores. The 2017 season comes in right behind.
These weird scores have made Super Bowl Squares more equitable. Traditional final-digit stalwarts one, four, and seven have ceded over seven percentage points’ worth of final-score probability to less-common numbers two, five, six, and nine. In fact, the last three seasons have featured three of the four lowest frequencies of final scores ending in one, four, or seven since 1936.
Four and seven are still among the best numbers you can draw — they’re just not as good as they were before. Two, five, and nine are still the three worst numbers — they’re just not as bad as they were before. And zero — ever strong — may now be the best number on the board.
Why is it important to factor in win probabilities?
Certain numbers are better for winning teams than for losing teams, and your chances to win with a given pair are influenced by which team is tied to which number. Let’s walk through an example:
Assume Person A draws [Patriots 8, Eagles 7] and Person B draws [Patriots 7, Eagles 8]. The probability of one team finishing with a final digit of eight and the other with a final digit of seven is 1.6%. At the start of an equally matched game, Persons A and B would each have a 0.8% chance to win, or half of 1.6%. In reality, those two boxes are not created equal. [8 winning team, 7 losing team] is a top-twenty pair (1.5%), while [7 winning team, 8 losing team] is one of the worst pairs on the board (0.1%). As a result, the person with the eight on the side of the team more likely to win is in better shape.
This year, Person A with [Patriots 8, Eagles 7] has a 0.9% chance to win, while Person B with [Patriots 7, Eagles 8] has a 0.7% chance. Person A is a little better off because the Patriots are a little more likely to win the game (58% vs. 42%). In other words, Person A is more likely to end up with [8 winning team, 7 losing team] and its 1.5% probability than they are to end up with [7 winning team, 8 losing team] and its 0.1% probability.
In most versions of the game, you can’t control which numbers you end up with. So when it comes time for the random draw, may the odds be ever in your favor. Good luck and enjoy the Super Bowl!
The data source for this article is pro-football-reference.com. Data includes both the NFL and AFL regular season and playoffs. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
Originally published at www.eldo.co.
