July 11 Special Elections: What to watch for

USA Election Watch
Jul 10, 2017 · 3 min read

There are three Oklahoma elections to watch on Tuesday July 11, two of them competitive general elections and the other a primary in what could end up being a competitive general election

Oklahoma State Senate District 44

This South Oklahoma City district has become a major battleground on a local level. This seat became vacant in March after Republican incumbent Ralph Shortey resigned after being charged with prostitution stemming from an incident involving a 17-year old boy. In 2014, Shortey had won reelection in this district 52%–42% over Democrat and immigration lawyer Michael Brooks-Jimenez, who is again the Democratic nominee for the special election. Joe Griffin is the Republican candidate, but has been outspent significantly by Brooks-Jimenez, who has reported over $185,000 in funding. All things considered, in a normal special election with this political climate I’d expect a 2–3 point Republican win, the change in margin a factor of enthusiasm and a history of Democrats performing well in Oklahoma special elections. However, given the fact that Oklahoma Republican Party is increasingly unpopular and the severe nature of Shortey’s crime, I would actually make Brooks-Jimenez a slight favorite in this race. A Brooks-Jimenez victory wouldn’t have a significant effect on the Oklahoma Senate as a whole, which stands at a 40–6 Republican advantage, but it would be a Democratic morale booster.

Immigration attorney Michael Brooks-Jimenez, shown here at a press conference, has raised a significant amount of money in an Oklahoma special election

Oklahoma House of Representatives District 75

This seat in Tulsa hasn’t seen as much money as the Senate District 44 race, but it still is being watched somewhat closely. The parallels between this race and the Senate District 44 race are interesting, as the vacancy was also created in this race by a resignation due to sexual misconduct by a Republican incumbent, with Dan Kirby forced to resign for sexually harassing a legislative assistant. Before resigning Kirby had just defeated Democrat Karen Gaddis 59%-40% in the 2016 election. Like in the Senate District 44 race, the Democrat who most recently lost a race for the seat is running again, as Gaddis won the Democratic primary. Tressa Nunley won the Republican primary in a large field and remains the slight favorite to win in my eyes, although the race is pretty much a toss up at this point. Both these Oklahoma races are up in the air, but if Democrats want to win legislative seats in 2018 they should be able to take one if not both of these seats.

Oklahoma House of Representatives District 46 Primary

I’ll keep it brief on this one, because its hard to know too much about a race until after a primary in many cases. This seat in Norman opened up when Scott Martin, the Republican incumbent, resigned for a job in the Chamber of Commerce. Jacob Rosecrants, who was defeated by Martin 60%-39% in the 2016 election, is unopposed in the Democratic primary and will be the nominee for the September 12 general election. The Republican primary has three candidates; Darin Chambers, Jimmy Shannon, and Charlie Samples. Check back in September for a more detailed look at this election.

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