Super Bowl Column 2016
“Just a helpful hint, don’t pick the Patriots to win this week.”
-Steven, Larchmont, NY
This is an email I received earlier this week from a reader of mine. I feel like I should be a little hurt by it. I mean, sure, I’ve picked the Patriots to win every single game I’ve attempted to predict since this blog started, but still, I’m offended. To think that my readers think so little of me that I would pick my team in a game they weren’t even playing in–it just flat out hurts…full disclosure, I did spend about 45 minutes yesterday trying to figure out how I could pick the Patriots in the Super Bowl. In reality, you guys just know me too well by now. I won’t pick the Patriots, but I also still won’t rule out the possibility that they somehow win this game. You can never rule out Brady and Belichick.
Before I get into the game, we’re going to start with my 3 favorite prop bets for Super Bowl 50.
Will Mike Carey be wrong about a challenge?
Yes: +110 (11/10)
No: -150 (2/3)
If you have watched even one NFL game on CBS this season, you’ve likely heard Mike Carey, the NFL ref turned rules analyst, botch a coach’s challenge. For those of you who have missed it, Mike Carey is an absolute wreck. Not only is he not meant for TV, but his analysis is almost always wrong. The sequences usually go something like this: After one of the team’s head coaches challenges a ruling on the field, Jim Nantz welcomes Carey in. Despite the fact that he spends no more than 2 minutes on air during the 4+ hour telecast, Carey never struggles to be unprepared. He always stumbles in, and forces Nantz to break the situation down for him like he’s a child. Carey then proceeds to attempt to explain his call and the actual rule, never failing to trip or stammer on his words in the process. Finally, he makes a definitive statement about what the call on the field is going to be, and does so with a rate of success similar to Jeb Bush in Iowa. He’s just a mess on TV. Need more proof? During the AFC championship game, Peyton Manning threw a backwards pass that was initially called incomplete and the Patriots challenged the call claiming that it was a fumble. Carey limped in per usual, and I found myself rooting for him to suggest that the call would go in Denver’s favor, knowing that the refs on the field would make the opposite call. I was right, Carey was wrong, and the Pats got the football. I was that sure Mike Carey would blow it. Did I mentioned that this guy was the head official in a Super Bowl just a few years ago? Scary stuff. This is a sure bet. Wager the mortgage on this one.
Will there be an earthquake during the game?
Yes: 10/1
Notice how there isn’t a “no” option here? This is a terrible bet, and an even worse Karma move. Seriously, we’re betting on whether or not a natural disaster is going to hit a major US city during a major global event? Does no one remember how awful and devastating the earthquake during the 1989 World Series was? Or how disastrous the Bay Area earthquakes before and since have been? Making this bet is about 10,000X karmically worse than taking your time in a parking spot because you know someone is waiting for it, 1,000X worse than betting on Johnny Manziel’s next legal misstep, and about 100X worse than rooting against Cam Newton because he’s “cocky”. If you make this bet, be prepared to lose whatever money you put on it…and your home, your job, your car, and anything else you cherish. Karma is coming for you.
Brandon McManus Super Bowl MVP
100/1
Who is Brandon McManus you ask? Well he’s the kicker for the Denver Broncos of course. I know what you’re thinking, a kicker has never been named Super Bowl MVP in the 50 year history of the Super Bowl. I’ll even admit it, it’s a long shot. But hey, it’s been a wonky year of NFL football, why should the Super Bowl MVP be any different? Don’t forget that Brandon McManus singlehandedly won the Broncos that divisional round game against the Steelers. Against Pittsburgh, he went 5/5 on field goals, accounting for 15 of the Broncos 23 points, with a game-long of 51 yards. Throw in the sure touchback he provides on almost every kick off, and this guy sounds pretty valuable to me. I don’t know, the way this Denver team plays where no one really shines offensively, this is starting to look like a good bet to me. You know what, I’m throwing my next 3 paychecks down on this one. I’ll be writing my next column from Cabo…Who am I kidding? There’s no way they don’t give this award to Peyton Manning if Denver pulls this one out. Peyton could go 8 of 35 passing, throw for 108 yards, toss 3 picks, pick his nose during the national anthem, ruin the halftime show, and take a dump on the NFL logo at midfield, and you would still see a salivating Jim Nantz hand him the MVP trophy at the end of the game.
Denver Broncos (+5.5) vs Carolina Panthers
So this is my 4th picks column of the NFL playoffs. I’ve had a lot of fun writing it. Finding the stats and info has been a blast, and there truly are few things better in this world than bashing Andy Reid, which I did plenty of. One thing I have realized in trying to break down these games before they’ve even occurred, is that prediction articles, radio shows devoted to predicting what will happen, and any other sports media source that tries to break down “what could happen”, are all BS. I know, I’m undermining everything I’ve done over the last month, but I’m enlightened now. This wonky NFL season, and the generally unpredictable nature of NFL football has made me realize that there’s no real way to predict exactly what’s going to happen in a game. This isn’t just sour grapes. I went 8–2 predicting games over the first 3 playoff rounds. I’ll continue to make my game picks (I appear to be able to do that at least). But no matter how much research I do, and the same goes for anyone on ESPN, FOX, CBS or any other sports media organization, there is no way to really predict this stuff. I can talk about the Kansas City running game or the Arizona defense all I want, and back it up with strong numbers, but it has become evident to me that none of that actually means anything. It’s a waste of everyone’s time. So, from this point on, I refuse to dig too deep into Russell Wilson’s passer rating, or Eddie Lacy’s yards per carry numbers when predicting a game. Don’t worry, this just gives me more space to discuss Russell Wilson’s past marriages and Eddie Lacy’s incredible weight gain. It’s a win-win for everyone.
On that slightly depressing note, let’s talk about the historical significance of this game for Peyton Manning. When you win a Super Bowl as a quarterback, you are always going to be remembered for having led your team to a Super Bowl victory, no matter how you perform. When Trent Dilfer isn’t spewing his garbage on ESPN, he is flaunting the fact that he won a Super Bowl in 2001 with the Baltimore Ravens. Though when he talks about it, he always seems to ignore the fact that he threw just 150 yards, and one touchdown in a game that was won largely by his defense and special teams. Despite that, he’s still part of an elite class that includes Joe Montana, Steve Young, and Tom Brady. The same goes for Brad Johnson. He went 18 of 34 for 215 yards with the Bucs in 2001, and got 21 points from his defense, but he’s still remembered as someone who led a Super Bowl champion team. Can you imagine the way we’d talk about Rex Grossman if he’d pulled that Super Bowl out in 2007?
That’s why I have no doubt that if Peyton Manning wins this game, we’ll remember it as Peyton’s Super Bowl. Sure, after the win there might be plenty of talk about how the defense carried the load and really won this game for Denver, but when we look back on it in 20 years, we’ll forget about how much it hurt just to watch Peyton Manning throw a football, and the fact that he missed 15+ open receivers en route to victory. Want a comparison to prove it? Game 7 of the 1970 NBA finals is remembered as “The Willis Reed” game. Willis Reed shocked world by playing the game with a torn right thigh muscle, and “led” the Knicks to a Game 7 win. What actually happened? Reed put up 4 points and played solid enough D on Wilt Chamberlain for the first half, while Walt Frazier lit up the stat sheet and won the game for New York. But hey, screw Walt, Willis is the true hero. Regardless of how Peyton performs, or how much he is aided by his defense in Super Bowl 50, a win in Santa Clara would be the ultimate cherry on top for Peyton, and would undoubtedly elevate his legacy to a new height. Does it make sense? No.
What makes even less sense? The idea that Peyton will be known as a Super Bowl loser if he doesn’t win this particular game. Don’t get me wrong, Peyton is a Super Bowl choke artist who barely even showed up in the one Super Bowl that he did win. He’s one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time, but he’s really struggled in the big ones. But saying that a loss this Sunday is what cements that legacy is unfair. We can all agree that the iteration of Peyton we’re looking at right now isn’t the same Peyton who was once capable of winning games on his own. The man accounted for 3 first downs in the second half against the Patriots two weeks ago, and made 4 good throws all game. It’s not fair to pin anything on him in this game. He’s a football genius who is being limited by his waning ability. For once, I actually have some sympathy for him.
It goes without saying, but Peyton is either going to win big, or lose big legacy-wise this Sunday. If he wins, he elevates his legacy to new heights. If he loses, he secures his spot as the best quarterback who couldn’t really cut it in the Super Bowl. I hate that that’s how it’s going to go down, because neither narrative should be impacted by this Super Bowl, but that’s just how it is.
As far as the Panthers go, I like almost everything about them. They are cool, and confident, and have every reason to be. Need I remind you they’ve lost just once since Donald Trump has gained political relevance? Cam is the coolest NFL quarterback since, well, ever, and Carolina’s top cornerback is a different movie character every game. There’s nothing not to like about them. But my one concern is that the Carolina Panthers are too loose. There’s something to be said for treating the Super Bowl like it’s just another game, but I also don’t love seeing a group of players who are too comfortable heading into the biggest game any of them have ever played in. The recent ESPN 30 for 30 titled The Four Falls of Buffalo served to remind me of a few very important things. The first was that the Bills somehow lost 4 straight Super Bowls in the early 90’s. It’s one those things you know happened, but sort of don’t think of until you’re reminded of how absurd it is to make it to the Super Bowl 4 straight times, and to lose each one. Another important thing I was reminded of was just how important Tim Russert was as the symbol of the city of Buffalo. Tim Russert kept the oft-forgotten city of Buffalo on the map nationally with his fervent love of the city and the Bills. The last thing I was reminded of was how loose the 1990 Bills were when they were making their first Super Bowl appearance. Nearly every member of the team recalled how lightly they took it, and each and every one of them regretted the fact that they hadn’t focused more on the task at hand. I’m not accusing the Panthers of not caring about this game, but their looseness scares me. I think there’s an inherent sense of insecurity about a team that focuses too hard on keeping up a certain image during Super Bowl week. It’s definitely a red-flag for me. I don’t know, I just feel like this is the sort of thing a team looks back on and regrets after they lose the Super Bowl. If I were a Carolina fan, I wouldn’t be too freaked out, but the Panthers’ care-free attitude would definitely give me a little anxiety.
So when it comes down to it, who’s winning this game? Well, knowing this NFL season, the game will end on a hail-mary touchdown that sees the football bounce off of 3 different celebrities in the stands, Tony Siragusa’s belly, and will include at 2 least Mannings who aren’t on the field (my money is on Cooper and Archie). After everything that’s unfolded this year, this wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. In all seriousness, I feel like the Panthers have been the team of destiny from day 1, and that they are supposed to win this game. Losing their top receiver during training camp, all the ridicule directed at Cam Newton, having the best Spanish language announcers in the world, and everything else around the Panthers points to them winning this game. The Broncos are the perfect underdog story with The Sheriff riding Jim Nantz off into the sunset with a Super Bowl ring, but I don’t think the Broncos have the firepower to keep up with the Panthers. If Carolina comes out and scores 17 quick points as they have in their first two playoff games, the game will essentially be done in the first 5 minutes. I can’t pick against destiny, and I can’t pick against Cam.
Panthers (-5.5) over Broncos