Predicting Naira — Dollar Exchange: It could rise to ₦497.32 in the next 4 days

Understanding the movement of the Naira in FX markets can be a daunting task. In fact, being able to model and predict its movement may help profit from FX trades and other financial instruments that deal in FX

Please note that this analysis was based on publicly available dataset and its authenticity cannot guaranteed

Examining the movement of the Naira (₦), we observe the following

(You can also observe the charts and come up with better deductions)

  • There are similarities in the upward movement in the exchange rate of the compared currencies
  • Naira gained strength in the FX market around mid June. This could be due to the consensus reached by oil producing countries to cut back on production
  • However, we were not able to maintain the strength as the Naira slipped and reached all-time highs at the beginning of October

Since March, the Naira has lost it’s strength by:

  • 60.34% to the Dollar
  • 38.82% to the Pound
  • 44.29% to the Euro

A closer the daily rate of change, it is suffice to say that there’s somewhat similar movement in Naira Exchange Rate per Dollar and Naira Exchange Rate per Pound

Looking into the future, let’s try to predict what Naira would be to the dollar

Having looked at the past and found patterns in the Naira per Dollar daily exchange rate, we may however be able to forecast the possible values for the next couple of days. This prediction is however based on time series analysis using Holt-Winters Model

From our predictions used, we anticipate the Naira exchange rate per dollar could go as high as ₦497.32 in the next 7 days

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