Gen. Petraeus on Pres. Trump’s Foreign Policy: “More Continuity” from Pres. Obama
Throughout the 2016 campaign, Donald Trump portrayed himself as a ‘political outsider’ who would put ‘America First’ in foreign policy. He often mocked President Obama, U.S. allies, and the role of international institutions.
But, General David Petraeus believes Trump’s *actions* as Commander in Chief are different than his *rhetoric*.
“For all the tweets and what may be termed, ‘lack of message discipline’, its been more continuity when you follow the troops, follow the money, and follow the substance,” Petraeus said.
I interviewed Petraeus inside a re-creation of the White House East Room at the Nixon Presidential Library in Yorba Linda, California. The event was co-sponsored by the Orange County World Affairs Council and the Richard Nixon Foundation.
As a four-star general, Petraeus led the U.S. surge in Iraq for President George W. Bush. He served as C.I.A. director for President Obama. He was considered by President Trump as a potential Secretary of State and National Security Advisor.
In our wide ranging discussion over the course of an hour, Petraeus offered his perspective on a number of the most vexing foreign policy issues now facing the 45th President.
HOW IS PRES. TRUMP DOING OVERALL?
I began by asking for an overall assessment of the Trump foreign policy so far.
“If you had to characterize it as more continuity or more change, interestingly, I think you would come down on the side of more continuity,” he said.
For example, Trump labeled China a ‘currency manipulator’ during the campaign and an unfair trading partner. As President, he’s hosted several cordial meetings with the Chinese president and boasted about their close relationship.
President Trump hasn’t largely altered the U.S. strategy in Iraq, Afghanistan, or Syria.
As a candidate, Trump often criticized NATO. But in practice, he’s embraced NATO’s pact to defend other NATO countries.
Petraeus said there are three major, outstanding questions:
1. Trade — Although he pulled out of the Trans Pacific Partnership, what will he do about NAFTA? He promised to end it, but hasn’t so far.
2. Climate Change — Pulling out of the Paris Accords is largely symbolic. Will he take more substantive actions other than some deregulation?
3. Immigration — For all the talk about a border wall, DREAMers, and the undocumented, he hasn’t taken dramatic actions on the biggest immigration questions. Will he?
NORTH KOREA
I asked General Petraeus about North Korean leader Kim Jung Un’s testing of intercontinental ballistic missiles that could potentially hit the United States.
“This is a reckless move by the leader of the Hermit Kingdom…the most closed society in the world,” he said.
“This is the time when China has to step forward. China controls 90% of the trade that goes to and from North Korea. China could literally turn off the lights in North Korea if they want to. They don’t want to,” he added.
In Petraeus’ view, “China wants to bring Kim Jung Un to his senses, not to his knees…they don’t want millions of refugees coming into China from North Korea.”
Petraeus said, “It’s time to look to China to truly implement the sanctions the U.N. security council has approved.”
The General hopes the United States will impose additional sanctions on secondary banks that trade with North Korea.
Petraeus said that Kim is currently using ‘front’ companies around the world to help finance his lifestyle.
Does Petraeus think we are on the brink of war?
“Diplomacy and sanctions still have a fair amount of effort that can be pursued. That has to be the focus at this time,” Petraeus said.
The former C.I.A director said that according to the intelligence he’s seen, Kim Jung Un is “not suicidal.”
“At the end of the day, his number one objective in life is to keep living and to survive.”
By keeping his nuclear program going, Kim Jung Un increases his leverage with international negotiators.
Petraeus said Kim saw what happened to Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Moamar Qadaffi in Libya when they gave up their nuclear ambitions…they lost power and were executed.
To keep his grip on power, Kim has also created one of the most effective cyber warfare units on the planet. Petraeus said “that’s extraordinary given it’s the most closed society in the world.”
But, the limits of Kim’s leadership are also very visible.
The average North Korean is so malnourished, he or she is 4–5 inches shorter than the average South Korean.
RUSSIA
What is motivating Russian President Vladimir Putin?
Petraeus said we should “believe what people say from time to time.”
Putin once called the breakup of the Soviet Union, the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century.”
“What has he done? He’s sough to reassemble it,” according to Petraeus.
Putin has invaded Georgia, Crimea, and South Eastern Ukraine. He’s (unsuccessfully) tried to limit the size and scope of NATO.
“This is all about an individual who sees himself as a leader of a great country who had to be hugely vexed when President Obama labeled Russia a ‘regional power’. He’s been trying to show ever since then that Russia is more than a regional power…and it is…although it has its limit.”
He said Russia’s collapsing oil and natural gas markets in recent years are evidence of the limits.
SAUDI ARABIA
Petraeus said one of the most interesting developments in foreign affairs is the emergence of a 32 year old man who has the potential to transform the Arab world.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is backed by his aging father, the king of Saudi Arabia, and has consulted multiple times with Petraeus.
“He’s a young man in a hurry!” Petraeus said.
Bin Salman has ordered the arrest of 11 princes in his family and 200 members of Saudi’s business elite.
In Petraeus’ view, “this is not a transition, this is a revolution ongoing!”
Petraeus said that revolution extends to four different areas.
1. Revolution in governance — bin Salman is consolidating power that was once spread out among various family members.
2. Economic revolution — Making Saudi Arabia less dependent on oil sales by investing in other industries.
3. Society & religion — Moderating the practice of Islam in the kingdom, including given women the right to drive.
4. Foreign policy — Growing Saudi Arabia’s military so its less dependent on America for help.
FIGHTING JIHAD
General David Petraeus is one of the men most closely associated with the United States military efforts against Islamic extremists.
He said he’s learned 5 key lessons from the past 16 years of conflict.
1. Ungoverned spaces in the Muslim world will be exploited by Islamic extremists
2. Non-muslim extremists have a responsibility to ensure there aren’t ungoverned spaces
3. Generally, the U.S. has to lead in responding. We have more assets. But the U.S. is most effective when it works with a coalition that includes Muslim countries.
4. You can’t counter extremists with just military assets. You need a comprehensive, diplomatic strategy that empowers countries to govern themselves.
5. This is a generation struggle that will go on for many decades. The U.S. needs to make a “sustained commitment and that needs to be sustainable.”
SYRIA
Bashar al Assad is responsible for the deaths of over 500,000 of his country’s citizens. He caused more than half of his country’s residents to be displaced.
The stated goal of the Obama Administration was ‘regime change.’
But Petraeus said President Obama didn’t put into place actual policies to achieve that goal. And, that goal is not likely to happen now.
“At the end of the day because of support from Iran…Lebanese Hezbollah and Russian air power & special operations, [Assad] will probably continue to lead the part of the country in which he has control.”
Petraeus said, “at least we should establish safe havens, enclaves and no fly zones.”
PETRAEUS IN GOVERNMENT AGAIN?
General Petraeus describes himself as “truly non-political.” He stopped voting when he was promoted to a two-star general and doesn’t belong to a political party.
But, he said when President Elect Trump called him about potentially serving as Secretary of State he felt a responsibility to meet with him.
“This was my ‘Celebrity Apprentice’ moment,” he joked.
Petraeus said inside Trump Tower, Trump had a list of his campaign promises he asked Petraeus about.
For example, “he asked, ‘Should we build a wall?’ I said. ‘sure, where we don’t have a wall, where a wall would do good, part of comprehensive approach,” Petraeus said.
Petraeus then asked him his own questions to determine if they could work together.
Afterwards, Trump tweeted out kind words about Petraeus.
“An approving tweet…no higher praise than that!” Petraeus said smiling.
Ultimately, Trump chose Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State.
Although the Trump/Tillerson pairing has felt like a reality show dispute at times, Trump’s working relationship with the generals around him has been comparatively drama-free.
I asked Petraeus about the value of having four-star generals like Chief of Staff John Kelly and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis working in the White House?
“Its not just four-star generals, but its four-star generals with the experience that these particular generals bring.”
Petraeus worked especially closely with Mattis for decades.
Both have seen the very real cost of warfare up close. They’ve watched their brothers in arms die on the battle field, had to write condolence letters to grieving parents, and visit troops missing limbs at Walter Reed.
As a result, they are not eager to enter unnecessary military conflicts that would cause even more bloodshed.
“Military guys know better than most the value of diplomacy…The big idea is you need to have comprehensive approaches. It needs to be a civil/military agreement.”
FULL INTERVIEW
The Richard Nixon Foundation broadcast our entire conversation live on Facebook. Watch it here.
What is Petraeus doing now that he’s out of government after 37 years?
Petraeus is currently serving of chairman of the KKR Global Institute, which advises the investment firm KKR in New York.
He serves as a Judge Widney Professor at the University of Southern California.
He’s also a senior fellow at Harvard University, and a member of the boards of the Institute for the Study of War, the Atlantic Council, the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, and over a veterans service organizations.
What do you make of General Petraeus’ views? Agree or disagree? Please share your comments below.
