Morning After Thoughts 4/27/16

Morning after thoughts 
Again, thanks for the kudos and comments. Please keep ’em coming. Changing the format a bit starting this week. 5 and 5 no longer works. So I’m doing a bit more prognosticating.

1. No surprises yesterday on either side of the aisle — perhaps just the size of the victories.

2. If Bernie is going to keep going until the convention, his campaign really needs to get its messaging consistent.

3. As long as money continues to pour in, no chance Bernie quits BUT he’d best start spreading the wealth to some down ticket races.

4. My guesses for the HRC vp shortlist — in no particular order — are: Brown, Castro, Perez, Kaine, Klobuchar, a business exec (ala Tim Cook or something), ‪#‎veep4life‬ Uncle Joe (not really but would be awesome), and if Trump is nominee: Franken. I don’t think Warren or Booker, I don’t think she’ll go with the super-ambitious pol type. Needless to say the Dems have a shockingly small bench for future presidential candidates.

5. The Cruz/Kasich team-up isn’t going to accomplish what they hope and likely won’t last until the primaries they’re hoping it will could actually impact (yesterday wasn’t those). Plus Kasich won’t even be on the ballot in Oregon.

6. I’m slightly lowering my odds of contested convention 55/45. However, repeating some color… Even if Trump doesn’t get to 1237 but walks in w/ ~1150+, I think it unlikely he won’t win on a first ballot (i.e. He’ll be the nominee)

7. I’m pretty confident in saying that Trump’s ONLY shot of winning the nomination is on the first ballot.

8. Can’t imagine a scenario in which Cruz or Trump is not the nominee.

9. If it’s Cruz I’m guessing VP will go to Kasich, Fiorina, Rubio or Martinez (in that order). Don’t be surprised if Ted tries to “change the story” by making a VP announcement before the convention if Trump hasn’t hit 1237.

10. Important delegate detail I only learned this week (I’m slow), being “bound” to a specific delegate through ‪#‎x‬ of ballots varies by state. Meaning some states’ delegates are free after first ballot others not until after 2, still more until after 3. It seems like all are free after #3. Long way of explaining where the idea of the white horse candidate riding in on the fourth ballot came from.

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