Morning After Thoughts 7/31/16

“Morning after thoughts” it’s been a few weeks, but here goes. Lots of stuff to catch up on, hopefully this lives up to your standards. I’m gonna stick to the 5/5 model.

Lemme say this: I really miss Tim Russert. Can you imagine what MtP interview w/ Trump would be like?

1. Do yourselves a favor and don’t get freaked out by national polls for at least a few weeks. Even better don’t pay attention to any polls (state or nat’l) until the first debate.

2. Speaking of, have you seen Donnie T already trying to weasel his way out of doing more than 1? There’s really no benefit to him to debate at all, but his ego/manhood won’t allow him to not do any so he’ll push to do just the bare minimum.

3. Let’s play a little electoral college map. As I wrote a while ago, the dems start about 80% of the way to 270 with “safe d” states the reps are only about 20% of the way there with their safe states. If HRC takes Florida it’s pretty much a done deal. For trump to win, he essentially needs to (like absolutely must) take Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. If you live in one of those states, you have my sympathy. Also look for a lot of activity in CO, NC, NV and AZ. [interesting aside: at the DNCC last week there was an electoral college map you could play with. The average up until that point of the convention had reasonable HRC victory. The guy running it said they had had it in Cleveland the week before and showed me the average of what the people playing with it there came up with: Trump loses]

4. Michelle Obama gave one of the best speeches of the last few decades. HRC’s was prose (as opposed to poetry), but I’m totally ok with that.

5. Parlor game time: look for Gen. John Allen to play a major surrogate role in the next 100 days and a senior nat’l security post in the admin (my guess is Sec of State or Nat’l Sec Advisor). My guess is both Vilsack and Perez will be in the next cabinet (maybe Peres as AG and Vilsack as CoS). I’m also willing to bet Lew stays at Treasury and if he leaves look at maybe Larry Fink, Sheryl Sandberg or Tim Cook to fill that role. At DoD, Ash Carter may stay on for a bit, if not its Flournoy (or, to throw everyone into a tizzy-Lindsay Graham). Would love to hear e/o’s thoughts particularly on Homeland, UN, Commerce and VA.

6. Pence could wrap up the ’20 nomination today if he drops off the ticket. He can easily use the latest Trump insane comment as an excuse. It’d be the ballsiest political move ever (talk about “vote your conscious”…) but would also signal to the rest of the GOP that they can run away from Trump.

7. GOP has generally received 60% of the white male vote (give or take) in presidential elections. With Trump polling significantly lower than previous nominees with women, Latinos, and African-Americans he needs to increase that 60%… Extraordinarily tough.

8. Trump at the top of the ticket could lead to senate seat flips in: PA, FL, IL, OH and IN. I don’t know about NH, NC, AZ or NV. Again, my sympathies to the residents of those states.

9. You know who spoke in the Michelle Obama timeslot in Cleveland? Chachi. I’m still amazed by how few GOP big wigs refused to participate.

10. I’d love to parlor game Trump’s admin, but Gen Flynn can only have 1–2 jobs and Chris Christie won’t get confirmed (so expect him to be CoS). Would love your thoughts!

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