What to look for 11/8/16
My “What to watch for/survival guide” for Election Day 2016.
1. Stay off social media, it’ll only freak you out. Don’t watch TV until about 8p (oddly, I’d suggest watching FOX for the returns) and do not obsessively check news websites. They won’t know anything until polls start to close.
2. Don’t pay attention to exit polling results unless you really understand how to read them (I don’t). Alternatively, I’ll probably be obsessively looking at Votecastr.us.
3. According to the AP more than 46 million people (~40% of electorate) have already voted. That means this thing could already be pretty much over and/or out of reach. For instance, it looks like Clinton crushed it w/ early voting in Nevada (take it out of the “toss-up” column)
4. The following Congressional districts are the ones I’m watching as “swing districts” in the presidential race: FL-24,5,6,7; PA-1,2,6,7,13; IA-3; NC-4, 13; MI-9, 11; NH-2; OH-17 and if HRC has any hope in GA/AZ: GA-7; AZ-4,5,6,7
5. I have HRC winning on the low end w/ 278 electoral votes and on the loony high end with 340. My guess is 307 — winning FL and OH, not NC. Maybe a 2.5% win popularly.
6. House: Dems pick up 10 seats in the House, leaving them well short — but closing the gap. I’ll be paying particular attention the NY23 and NJ5.
7. Senate: Dems pick up PA/WI/IL, but fall short in FL/GA/NC/NH/IN/MO which would make it a 51/49 GOP majority. MO/NH are the 2 I’ll be hoping surprise me.
8. The networks called the 2012 election by 11:40p, I’m expecting about the same this year…although if I were betting I’d say it’ll be earlier (11:10).
9. The only way Trump concedes is if Chelsea calls her buddy Ivanka and says “Give your father the f*cking phone. This needs to end tonight.”
10. To my many friends and #Trubros (not mutually exclusive) who have done the Lord’s Work and made calls, knocked doors and will be poll watching as laypeople and lawyers doing voter protection. Thank you.
Final pre-election thought: This thing has never been as close as the media has made it seem. They get paid to generate material that’ll keep people coming back to them. Trump’s campaign has been based on finding some previously un-tapped group of disaffected white voters to come out for him in droves. Meanwhile, he’s alienated the groups he needed: college educated white men and women and completely turned off the groups that would have helped: minorities and basically anyone else.
That being said, nothing’s over until someone hits 270. I have faith that the country will make the right choice today (but I bought batteries and beer, just in case)
